Winnalotto-Sangoma 2

[Patrick123]

Hi BP,
The Median Winnalotto calculates is Mid-point of the sorted range. If it there is an even number of entries in the range eg. 16 entries, it would take the rounded value of (#8+#9)/2 on 17 entries it would use #9 as the median.

I notice BRIGHT5's median also differs between the two lists you supplied here?

The median can make a difference. On a large sample of data, the median would be fairly consistent and would tend back towards this as more and more draws are added. A smaller sample size should tend to show the more subtle periodic or seasonal change.
How large a sample must we use? This was one of the chats we had right near the start of the original Sangoma thread, and I still cannot give you an accurate answer maybe Springbok can shed some light there.

My method of attack is to evaluate the filters at 200, 500 and 700 draws, the reason why 700 is because that's about all the draws of SA, so in other words, all of the draws, and see how the filter performs in each scenario and base my predictions off how confident I feel with that filter. Still a bit of human gut-feel and not true cold, hard calculations yet.

Regards
Patrick

 

[Patrick123]

Choosing Filters.

Hi everyone,

This is a simple tutorial for using the column filters.
With the plethora of filters available for WinnaLotto, it is in important not to select each one, run it and blindly use the numbers selected.

The first thing I do, is to load at least 5 Historical draws after loading the initial file. I have an Excel spreadsheet where I've got the Filters listed, with two columns of about 5 cells in each next to the filter names. These I've labeled multiple and single.
I then load one of the filters and run the evaluation. This gives me a feel of the confidence I must place in that filter, bearing in mind that just a plain listing, no filter, will give hit percentages of:
Ball-14 %
Pairs- 26%
Trips - 37%

Anything performing substantially higher or lower than this, you can then use as a filter or anti-filter respectively.
You may find for example that Balls & Trips give mixed results, but pairs is giving returns of about 66 to 80% within 3 to 6 rows. I would then study the pairs selected by that filter.
You may also find that the filter evaluation shows that 4 balls selected of which if none hit then, but they hit the following draw. I would then select Past 1 and click balls, feeling confident that one or two of those selected would come in. This would usually be backed up by another filter.

I have learnt it is important to be fairly cold and ruthless with the balls otherwise they all going to hop up & down hoping you'll pick them for the ride

Regards
Patrick

 

[Springbok]

Dumela Patrick

Medians and the range of draws. The larger the datafile is the more stable the median. The median for pairs is 2 (counting 0,1,2) or 3 if you start the count from 1. Trips median is 1(0,1). Shorter datafiles give more volatile medians. A datafile of only 50 can give a pairs median of up to 4.

Which median is valid? The longer or the shorter term median. For example let's take an Inbetweener with a median of 2. We look at a pair on the current ongoing cycle of skip 1. Say the previous skip cycles were above the median then we expect it to rebalance and hit next draw. Sometimes this happens, sometimes not. The question is what median is that pair following, a short term one or a long term one? Maybe a likely Inbetweener candidate found by a say 500 draw datafile should be examined more closely with a 100 and a 50 draw datafile?

In some of Saliu's writings he talks about N x 1 , N X 2, N x 3 as drawings ranges. N being the highest number in the game.


At the moment I am focusing on catching all winning balls within 24 numbers. If you ask ouma or oupa to pick 24 balls out of 49, they should on average hit 3 winning numbers in the group they pick. This is a brainfree way. Now we are smarter, aren't we? With our fancy computers and are smart arse filters. We should be doing substantially better then this. Should'nt we? Not just once but consistently.

Patrick, there are 2 lotteries in the Uk. You got the 49S, that's the twice a day game run by the bookies in the UK. Then you got the UK lottery that runs twice a week. The 49s is a good one for testing ideas real time because of its frequency.

When I think of all us fooling around with lotteries makes me think we are like frustrated physicists busy chasing around for quarks, black holes and Higgs bosons and whatnot . Or maybe we are just greedy buggers who want to have fat bank accounts. Anywhichway it is quite fascinating.

 

[Patrick123]

Howzit Springbok,

Thanks for clarifying the medians for us.

I'll take a look at the alternate UK Lottery as that will give me time to analyse it properly.

I've uploaded an update to WinnaLotto. There are 2 new features, the first one (I know you don't like wheels Springbok ) allows you to take a wheel you've loaded or created, and populate it with your number selection. You then have the capability of selecting other numbers or even creating another wheel, and appending the results to you first wheel.
The other feature, is the ability to pull the numbers through that you matched on the Moses Tab. You'll get 7 rows for each row from Moses
An interesting exercise, that is when you've got the time Springbok, You'll notice the list of numbers that Moses gave quite often matches 5 or more numbers from a draw. Now loading the 'Moses.txt' file, selecting all 49 balls & choosing match, you'll get all 25115 rows. Now you go to the purging tab and
'Generate via Moses' to give you all 175805 rows. Running this through Bright6 might show some interesting results

Ha Ha, I agree, 2:00am in the morning, thousand of scraps of paper around you, another 30 graphs, the glow of the computer screen.... and 6 special numbers winking at you... what more could you ask for

Regards
Patrick

 

[Patrick123]

Generating Numbers Via Moses

Hi Everyone,

This is how envisage using the number list we received from Moses.
First we run through the filters and extract the numbers that we think have a high probability of hitting.
Go to the Moses Tab and select these numbers there. Now you have to decide (possibly look at your previous outcomes) and if you've been hitting on average 4 balls out of 20 selected, then you set the match to 4, click Match Balls. Most probably about 5000 rows are going to be returned to you. Switch over to the Purge Tab, and click 'Generate numbers via Moses'. You will now end up with about 35000 rows. You can now purge the rows until you get the desired number of rows you want to play.

Regards
Patrick

 

[Springbok]

G'day Patrick

Here is a little story and food for thought. There I was Saturday late afternoon at the supermarket. I decided to spend £1 on a Quick Pick on the UK 6/49. I asked the shop assistant for one QUick Pick. He grins at me and says that I want to be a millionaire. I tell him if he beams positive thoughts at the machine and I beam positive thoughts at the machine then maybe we will tickle the "Ghost in the Machine" and should this be the case I would buy him a car up to the value of £12,000(I aint that generous ) Anyway next day that little ticket strikes 2 numbers out of the 6 winning numbers. I thought to myself that was effortless number picking. 2 numbers in a pool of 6 is pretty good. Supposing that machine was tickled twice more maybe I could get a pool of 18 numbers with the 6 winning numbers. Question is, where do I find 3- 6 number combinations each having 2 numbers? Food for thought

 

[bloubul]

Hi Springbok / Patrick123

Well Springbok I’m surprised that you haven’t done it yet, and with even less numbers, with all your knowledge and wit around lotto’s and systems, also full credit to Patrick123. Why he has not “Klap” it yet, I don’t know. Looks to me you need a “BLOUBUL” as a mascot. I will say nothing of the rugby?????

Joesam
We need your contact ASAP, so we can finalize everything please.

BlouBul

 

[Patrick123]

Aloha Springbok,

Methinks 2 people beaming positive thoughts = 2 numbers... Why not invite ALL for friends to go with you next time

Hi Bloubul,

I never really to much note of the lottery apart from the odd quick picks and 'lucky' numbers/ dates. Last year, I had some time to kill, & decided to write a lottery program. My knowledge of maths and basic statistics is fairly good, but on lottery and probabilities was not up to scratch. I started researching via the internet where I eventually came across this forum and Sensei Sprinbok's words of wisdom.

WinnaLotto is now at the point where meaningful information can actually come out of it and is getting better all the time as we refine the filters and the purging. The Jackpot is still the Holy Grail, we have not got it yet, but as Springbok so aptly put it, "We catch a glimpse of her knickers now & again"

Regards
Patrick

 

[black prince]

Springbok and Patrick123

Gentlemen, if this were an easy problem, lottery sellers would be in another business.
My fear is that we succeed and they do get out of lottery before we get our millions.
I'm back testing so much the computer's screen is getting blurry. I need a break for a
couple of hours. My latest discovery is 'Median Due' as a filter against Skip1. This seems
to produce more consistant 4 out of 5 in 12 to 15 numbers. Patrick and Springbok, can
you shed any light how median due is derived. All three (Treasure Hunt, CASH5, and
Powerball) lotteries seem to produce much better results with this filter. I feel the
flow of ideas in this thread is the best I've seem. Keep up the Great work.

-BP

 

[Patrick123]

Hi black prince,

Thanks for the vote of confidence
The median due is simply the (current skip value - the median value) on numbers where the current skip exceeds the median.

Regards
Patrick

 

[Patrick123]

Hi Springbok,
I download/updated my UK49s File and did some tests with it. The results are all over the place, so definitely the filters need to be 'tweaked' for the individual lottery (or I just need more time to get 'intimate' with the numbers). I'll get the other UK Lotto as the few hours between draws on the bookies lotto is just too short to really stay in tune with the game.

Regards
Patrick

 

[Springbok]

Hi Patrick

http://www.national-lottery.co.uk/player/gaming/drawgame/displayLottoPlayslip.do
That will take you to the UK National Lottery. You will find the past results there for the 6/49 game or any other game and if you want the bonus ball.

 

[Patrick123]

Hi Springbok,

Thanks, I've now downloaded them & will give my 2 cents worth tomorrow

 

[Springbok]

Hi Patrick again

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/7408216.stm

Click on the link. See how simulations were used to detect the voting patterns for the Eurovision song contest. Simulated drawings in lotteries are just as valid.

 

[black prince]

Patrick123

Hi Patrick,

As you suggested, I created a spreadsheet comparing Winnalotto's filter performance
and discovered some interesting contrasts. The Median Due is the difference for Current
Skip greater than Median. The lottery Balls are selected when this is true.

Winnalotto picks (Current skip - Median): 4,6,7,12,13,15,16,17,26

My spreadsheet based on BRIGHT5 (Current skip - Median): 3,4,6,7,8,12,15,16,17,18,26,29

Winning Numbers (5/19/08): 1 - 4 - 7 - 16 - 18

I discovered that Winnalotto's calculation of (Current skip - Median)
left out 3,8,18,29 that BRIGHT5 included. Of the numbers left out 18 was
was a winning number. I manually checked how BRIGHT5 calculated Median
and it was correct. This may not be a small matter when it comes to filtering
out 5 out of 5 for Jackpot. I'll do the same for CASH5 (5/43) which plays tonight at 7PM
and see if a similar situation exist.

Thanks

-BP

 

[Patrick123]

Hi Springbok, black prince,

I was sitting this afternoon, thinking about the UK49s and how my filters were so totally out of whack. It reminded me of the SA Lotto when I merged the Lotto Plus with it.

Now this is where it gets interesting!!!!!
I added a SpinEdit on the import tab, that will allow you to load every xth row only, the equivalent of me skipping out the Lotto plus draws.
I loaded the file with every 2nd row as well as about 5 history draws. On loading some filters, I was averaging 80 to 100 %
I did the same but loaded every 3rd row, and some other filters gave me 80 to 100 % again

This has blown me away, from something that I could make no sense of to something that was giving me meaningful values???
Does this mean that they running 2 independent games but treating it as 1???
I think it warrants further investigation

BTW. I've uploaded this updated version of WinnaLotto.

Regards
Patrick

 

[Springbok]

Evening Patrick

Does Lotto Plus use the same machine as the main draw? Are the draws done one after another. If so which draw comes first.

 

[Patrick123]

Hi Springbok,
They are done on different machines. Lotto first, then they go to a second identical machine with a complete set of 49 balls & repeat the process.

 

[black prince]

Patrick123

Originated from Patrick123
Hi Springbok, black prince,

I was sitting this afternoon, thinking about the UK49s and how my filters were so totally out of whack. It reminded me of the SA Lotto when I merged the Lotto Plus with it.

Now this is where it gets interesting!!!!!
I added a SpinEdit on the import tab, that will allow you to load every xth row only, the equivalent of me skipping out the Lotto plus draws.
I loaded the file with every 2nd row as well as about 5 history draws. On loading some filters, I was averaging 80 to 100 %
I did the same but loaded every 3rd row, and some other filters gave me 80 to 100 % again

This has blown me away, from something that I could make no sense of to something that was giving me meaningful values???
Does this mean that they running 2 independent games but treating it as 1???
I think it warrants further investigation

BTW. I've uploaded this updated version of WinnaLotto.

Regards
Patrick

The USA lottory controlers run random test runs before the actual public drawings
and this distorts the outcomes forcasted by most players. They do this
randomly so if you play daily then sometimes you hit like crazy,
other days nothing. But before Winnalotto, it was nothing for me most
of the time. Now I can potentially win much more frequently if I can
just narrow these numbers down into an affordable set of draws. I'm
gettin there. Hey Patrick, don't forget about the Median Due problem.
I believe it's important.

Thanks


-BP

 

[Patrick123]

Hi BP,
No problem, I won't forget I'll try & look at it tomorrow.
At the moment, I'm re-going through everything in case my Eureka moment is actually just a little storm in the teacup. Though it would give rise to possibilities of another tertiary filter.

Regards
Patrick