Sangoma-number divination

[barge]

hi Sprinbok

Thanks for the info, particularly on the high skips, there are a few on the way. I am buying a new laptop, as my Omnibook doesn't think much of the number crunching....surprising as we aren't dealing in Ion style figures. The battery has expired anyway, so I will get something else.
Using the grids, i find that Max Val seems to give the most consistent results followed by a Simple sort. Although there are a few choices to be made however
I do it. This is to be expected, a lot of tickets will have to be bought to get the necessary cover when the time comes to try for the jpot.
Meanwhile, in order to get some numbers out of my head, I am going to take on Hannibal in the Total War, Rome. It has been on my machine for a while, but I never tried it before.....................

 

[Springbok]

Top of the Mornin' to you Barge

How's that for a bit of Irish. Makes a change from spraying out greetings in English, Afrikaans, Zulu, Ndbele, Venda, Xhosa, Tswana, North and South Sotho

I was delighted to see that my forecast of the 30's decade was correct in last night's UK draw. I sometimes feel like one of those idiot savants. I probably am an idiot as only idiots fool around with lotteries My ancient IBM laptop has developed a crack in the plastic area around the screen so will have to get another one unless I can find one in a skip in the City of London. I have learned my lesson, always place laptops under the seat of an aircraft and not in the luggage racks above.

You should never have more than 5 tickets for a lottery if you purge with Saliu's software and use Past Draws. If you cannot get it in 5 then you aint going to get it in 500. Use the rapier rather than a sledgehammer. More than 5 tickets then you are throwing good money after bad. I use my wins from pair betting to finance my 6/49 gambles so it costs me nothing. I am deeply grateful to all those unknown losers at the bookies who finance me Bless them! So far testing with the 6 number historical highs in the UK 6/49 gives pretty accurate results but you have to offset if you want to hit next draw and not within 4 draws. You could even make money out of pairs betting with this lottery although the payouts are thin compared to the bookies 49s.

 

[Springbok]

Howdy again Barge

I have been researching "nerd think". It is basically thinking out of the box. If British intelligence is putting high value on this then it is worth looking into especially if they think it will help to defend the green and pleasant land against the enemies of the Queen.Looks like "nerd think" has been used throughout history. The British are superb nerd thinkers. Operation Mincemeat during WW11 is the ultimate exposition of this type of thought. The Germans swallowed it hook, line and sinker. To catch the UK 6/49 we are going to have to do some serious nerd thinking

 

[Springbok]

Bayete! Patrick

Draadsitter6(100 draw history) picked up 2 numbers in the SA lottery-46 and 49. 46 was also picked up by an Inbetweener. I am starting to think the previous draws are valid despite the 6 month break. Nothing was picked up by the 1000 draw historical highs but the highest skip pair was at 20 which is on the low side for the 6/49 game. The internal column picked up those 2 numbers. I know it is not a filter but it can be uncannily accurate sometimes. I wonder why?

 

[Springbok]

Evening Barge

Well, 7 days have passed by and you should have had a 100% success rate with the highs. Success in this case is a hit within 4 draws. Today ended with 2 hits the very next draw-most satisfying. Nothing succeeds like success There will be a drought for the next few draws as the pairs climb into the 20+ area. You can have a shot below twenty but you run a higher risk. The fact is if you think about Saliu's Pot filter, it has been hitting above its median so we can expect a few strikes lower down the skip scale. I think it would be unwise to do anything in the very immediate future. We must be like a lion stalking a herd of zebra. We watch carefully, pick our victim and strike at the opportune moment. We are the kings of the lottery jungle

 

[barge]

Hi Springbok

I have had a busy week, (and have done nothing except Tball)and will catch up over the weekend. Are you using high skip, or sorting to get your pics?

 

[Springbok]

Hello Barge

My idea of finding strategies with the highs is to make it so foolproof that a Neanderthal(like my grandma or some of my friends) can use it as safely as humanly possible. I have encountered failures and more rarely back to back failures. I constantly back check at random to see whatsup. With the highs you use the 20+ rule for ultimate safety(like having two parachutes when you jump out of an aircraft ) If you have a whole bunch of pairs with the same skip then hold fire and pick the one that survives the next draw or so. Remember like a lion we focus intently on the most suitable victim to provide our supper. All you do is go to the column to the left of the n + x >= H. Sort the column so you can see at a glance the skip status of the pairs. I tend to ignore the percentage rankings and go for the highest skip above 20. Do this and all will be well over the long run. I have a test called the sock test. I have an old sock and I put my winnings in it(coins). Everyday I hold the sock. If it gets heavier then I know I am doing well, if it gets lighter then I know the opposite is happening. The sock test confirms the validity of the strategy. Try it and see. Remember always backtest a strategy to see what happens. Treat me as a congenital liar until proven otherwise.
With the approach of the Celtic pagan festival of Samhain(you as a Scot should know this -the official start of a long cold, winter my thoughts turn towards the UK lottery in the hope of an everlasting long hot summer. You wouldn't happen to know any Druid sangomas who could give me 6 numbers for today's lottery
PS Don't forget British Winter Time starts 2am this Sunday.

 

[barge]

Hi Springbok

Thanks for the words...!
We Scots, (and big ones too) don't do Druid, we are strictly Pagan, with a few elements of Calvanism, Presbyterianism and Alcoholism thrown in. The latter is the clue, follow Alcoholism, and you get something like Sangoma in a kilt. Add a deep fried Mars bar and the sugar rush on top of the Malt produces a philosophical vision which might just do the trick, if you can stand up long enough to see it, the vision that is, which might or might not relate to the required numbers. Like Sangoma, you just have to keep trying!

 

[Springbok]

Simulated history draws vs real draws

I have been running some simulated files. I produce 1000 or so random 7/49 combinations. On top I put the last 4 real draws. These 4 draws are the test area. Will the simulated files predict pairs based on their historical highs? So far the results have been excellent.Of course the test will have to be performed with at least 100 simulated files not just a couple of times. I have a strong feeling that the real history draws have no relevance. Or in other words the real draws are just as good as the simulated draws or vice versa. Strange and puzzling
We work on the theory that past draws can help to some extent predict future draws. This is quite correct-we know it works most of the time. The question is how do you define past draws?

 

[barge]

hi Springbok

Interesting, this was discussed a couple of months ago on the thread. I remember other things came up which diverted the discussion. I will run a few tests as you describe and report on the results. I could use an improvement in my number picking. The last couple of weeks have been a bit lean, to say the least. High skips of course are OK, thanks for the advice.

My experiment with the 2in19 perms got interrupted as well. I feel such a filter will work provided I can pick at least 2-3 numbers. A tall order for me!
The Tball progresses slowly, the void still gets in the way for 2 or 3 numbers. Finding the question to ask the program is probably the key, and it has to be repeatable within reason. The same applies to the 49s. The answers are all there, but there needs to be a set of questions covering the range of say 36-39 numbers which produce results often enough to encourage shots at the prize, or maybe decades need more attention.
Nil desperandum.

 

[Springbok]

Kunjani Barge

When you test the simulated files always remember to have 4 real draws as your test area and base the predictions purely on the sim files over 1000 previous simulated draws. I am very familiar with historical highs as I have thoroughly tested them. I know what they can and cannot do and have developed an intuitive feel for them. For example I recently ran a test over 50 consecutive draws. There were 26 betting opportunities. 20 were successful and 6 failed. This was based on any historical high. If I cut out any bets on highs of 14 or less, then losses were only 3. If I cut out all bets with highs less than twenty then losses dropped to 2. At the moment I am running 6 simulated files. Each one created with a different seed.
This game is a matter of science and art. Over the weekend I have been reading up on Israeli military tactics on "going through walls"- real nerd stuff but the theory based on post-modern French philosophers and architects could have some bearing on lotteries.

 

[Excellence]

Hello Springbok,

Simulated vs. real draws. I agree that simulated files are as good as real draws, as long as the simulated file has the same format as the real draws file (e.g. 7 / 49).

„For example I recently ran a test over 50 consecutive draws. There were 26 betting opportunities. 20 were successful and 6 failed. This was based on any historical high. If I cut out any bets on highs of 14 or less, then losses were only 3. If I cut out all bets with highs less than twenty then losses dropped to 2.”

To be honest, I do not know what you mean by a betting opportunity. As time goes I really start to believe that math is the wrong way in searching the answer to the lottery. But math will indicate us some general lines. Well, math says that if we play a pair in a 7 / 49 game, for 4 draws, we should expect a winning rate situated around 71%. Any pair. I touch here a sensible problem and, since I am not a mathematician, I will not go into details (not because I would not have arguments but because it is a little to strange, probably way beyond my power of understanding). So back to the strategy, 20 / 26 = 76%. The expected value for a p = 71% in 26 experiments is 19. If we cut we get only 3 losses, but if we cut we remain with how many experiments? Maybe 10, 11? I don’t know.

In the purpose of science and art (love how you expressed that friend, indeed this is an art) I will make an experiment. I will create two random sets of 10 pairs and I will watch them over the next 4 draws in the 49s. Today is 29 october, so starting today till tomorrow evening. The sets of pairs are:

Set 1:
1, 2
3, 4
5, 6
7, 8
9, 10
11, 12
13, 14
15, 16
17, 18
19, 20

Set 2:
1, 49
2, 48
3, 47
10, 31
11, 32
12, 33
34, 35
20, 21
23, 36
25, 39

Since the expected value is 7, we should expect in 68% of the cases that at we will obtain between 6 and 8 pairs. 87% probability of getting at least 6. Again, for the purpose of science and art.

 

[Excellence]

Hi again Springbok,

While I was writing the sets of pairs I realized something. You always said that your alpha pairs are somewhat more efficient. I think I know the explanation. Look at my pairs. They contain 20 numbers! In contrast, if you use Winnalotto and obtain 10 pairs you could easily have 11 numbers. When we create this random sets, we still have a criteria in mind. Not to repeat a number. In Winnalotto that does not happen. Winnalotto analyses all the pairs, even if they contain one common number.

 

[Springbok]

Hi Barge again

Here is another question. Should we keep the sim files static ie always the same file or should we generate new sim files for the following 4 draws. To me this would appear logical. But then again the future 4 draws know nothing about the composition of the sim files or even the real history files.
I posted a question on Saliu's site on the 6 month gap in the South African lottery draws hoping for some intelligent answers seeing that the smarter players use Saliu's software. I got no intelligent replies. In fact I got only one reply that said wait 6 draws and see what happens. This surprised me as Saliu's Lotwon software is mainly dependent on simulated files ranging from 10,000 to 600,000. The D6 files remain the same except that as you add in each new draw each combination drops down by one on the list and this makes them dynamic as the file changes a little bit after each draw is added. So it seems that maybe the sim files will have to be changed every 4 draws if you are pair hunting.

 

[Springbok]

Hello Excellence

You got it. The alpha,beta etc files work in a more limited fashion vs Winnalotto. Because each file does not repeat a pairing your evaluation is easier. Each file has 24 pairs or 17 trips. You can create your own files with winnalotto and save them. When you look at the skip history of the 24 pairs, the file gives you a certain structure or architecture. But when looking at historical highs Winnalotto is supreme and it is without match when it comes to researching quickly and efficiently.

Looking at betting opportunities this is how I test. I go back say 51 draws. I pretend I am going to chase a number pair for 4 draws. The first target is draw 51 and the parameter will extend down to the next 3 draws. In other word the pair must hit in those 4 draws. I load the history(1000 draws) and sort the pairs to find the pair with the highest skip. The betting opportunity will depend on your strategy. If there is a pair with a skip value of 20+ then that is the one to bet on. If there are none then there is no betting opportunity. You wait a number of draws until that opportunity comes up. Assuming the pair is 20+ I then see if it hits in the next 4 draws. I record this on paper. Then I carry on in the same way until I get to the end. I then look at the recorded results and think about them. It then penetrates into my head that it is a good idea to bet on 20+ skip pairs than pairs lower than 20+ because in the long run it is safer.

 

[Excellence]

Hi Springbok,

What puzzle me is that you said that in 50 draws there were 26 opportunities. You define an opportunity as:

“If there is a pair with a skip value of 20+ then that is the one to bet on. If there are none then there is no betting opportunity”

On the other hand:

“For example I recently ran a test over 50 consecutive draws. There were 26 betting opportunities. 20 were successful and 6 failed. This was based on any historical high. If I cut out any bets on highs of 14 or less, then losses were only 3. If I cut out all bets with highs less than twenty then losses dropped to 2.”

Here, as far as I understand, you included in those 26 betting opportunities highs with skips of 14 or less. I do not understand. Also, there can be 3 pairs indicated for the next draw, and they all have skips of 20+. You count this as ONE betting opportunity or as 3 betting opportunities?

But the main point is: why should your system be better than random play? Because, as I said before, if you cut some opportunities from those betting opportunities you remain with fewer. My question was: how many?

 

[Springbok]

Hi Excellence

The best way to explain is to look at this extract from my notes. I decided to run a test on the highs starting at line 101. The figures in brackets are the skip values. I only use percentages if there is more than one candidate. The last column is the result. This is what happened:-

line
101......................39,44(14)....................FAILED
97........................39,44(18)..................3rd
94........................42,44(16)...................1st
93.......................16,44(16).....................1st
92........................36.41(16) 50%.............3rd
...........................16,36(16) 100%............3rd
...........................16,41(16) 100%............4th
87........................7,16(14)....................FAILED
83........................7,16(18).....................2nd
81........................7,27(17)....................FAILED
77........................7,27(21)....................1st

There were 9 betting opportunities. If your strategy was to bet on any pair with the highest skip rating then you would have had 9 bets. If your strategy was 20+ skip, then you only had one bet and so on. Every draw gives you a betting opportunity. It is up to you to take it or not depending on your strategy.

 

[Springbok]

Hello again Excellence

Is random picking better? In my experience it is not over the long term. We constantly try to improve our techniques. For example last night while testing 5 simulated files, 4 of them each gave a pair that hit in the second test line. That is 8 number pool of which 4 hit. Or look at it this way 2X2X2X2=16. 16 4 number combinations would win you £7000 if you bet £1.2 per combination. That makes you think, doesn't it? It also makes you think about 2 more pairs which you could perhaps add and win yourself £1,000,000 with the bookies. I tell you one thing,playing the lotteries sure stretches the brain. A survey was done on professional punters in horse racing. It was worked out they use the same cognitive skills as a brain surgeon in analysis. Maybe that could apply to lotteries

 

[Excellence]

Salutare Springbok,

Well, I will start with the first example. Three times you played the same pair more than 4 times, one time you played a pair 7 times. But I will consider the angle that you are considering. If it does not hit in the 4 draws it is a different pair. In total you choose 11 pairs, and 3 failed. Math tells us that we should normally expect 8 wins! Any bankroll would have a slow death, considering the odds offered.

Yes, lotteries are a great exercise for the brain. Also chess is. I strongly recommend everyone trying at least one of them, great for health.

Having 4 numbers out of 8 is an exceptional performance. Testing with different simulated files could prove interesting but I find hard to believe that applying the above strategy could prove better on different files. I would try with at least 7 simulated files. I also find interesting that all 4 pairs had different numbers and they all hit in the same draw. That can’t happen to often. In fact I think it is around 0,0014.

 

[Springbok]

Hello Excellence

The test was a small fragment of the results going all the way down to line 4. It was fairly turbulent. With the proper betting strategy you would have made money in this fragment. What you have to do is go back to line 200. Then test as I have done.Forget money at this stage-you are after knowledge. Once you have all the results written down, you study them. Work out your strategy. Then you think about making money and work out money management tactics. The main part here is how to recover from a failure or even a back to back failure. Your failure rate will depend on your strategy. Some time ago I ran a test for one week using basically the grids. I started with a bank of £3 and after 7 days it had risen to around £12.70. Ok, it was a good run and there were no failures but it shows the possibilities. I have seen 12 wins in a row with the highs. When this happens you will make muchos dinero. Also on occasion two numbers in the pair will hit at the same time which is an extra bonus. Read Fullhouse's post on money management.
But I tell you one thing. If you randomly pick pairs your bank balance will fall quicker than a cannon ball falling down a gold mine shaft. If you don't believe me then try it.