Lottery Forecasting

tomtom

Member
Re: Re: Re: Am I impatient ... or what?!

Brad said:
Since BCLC doubled the ticket price the JP was only won 3 times, last one went July 17/04 ... that's about 50 draws ago. The second prize, $75K/5+B, goes about once a month (as per Sympatico).

My guess is not many ppl play the BC49 anymore, I didn't till yesterday, hehe. BCLC's annual report is due out in March so that will confirm (disprove?) my guessing ...
Cheers

Yeah, I just checked again…in less than 20 days there were 3 JP winners - July 17 2004, July 10 2004, and June 30, 2004. It was more than 6 monts ago, and since then there were no JP winners… :cold:

Do you know by any chance if they use some RNG machines for draws, or regular old-fashioned machines with balls?
 

Brad

Member
tomtom said:
<< snip >> Do you know by any chance if they use some RNG machines for draws, or regular old-fashioned machines with balls?
BCLC uses an ADM, auto-drawing machine (read: computerized pseudo-random generator :sick: ).


Cheers
 

tomtom

Member
Brad said:
BCLC uses an ADM, auto-drawing machine (read: computer or pseudo-random generator :sick: ).

Cheers

Well, in that case I'm going to try it after seeing at least one JP winner once in a while (once a month or so).
3 JP winners in less than 20 days, and no JP winners in 6 months after that is a kind of pretty unusual occurrence..
 

Tarantula

Member
Brad,
I just reviewed the data for my first BC 49 forecast - check out wheel 43, it's 159 tickets but there were 20 4+B tickets at the top!
 

Brad

Member
Niiice!! :agree:

4. 20 x$75
3. 54 x$10
-----------
--> $2,040


I like the colour coded hit parade in your Past Results summary. It would also be nice to see a total of all hits at a glance, something like: 3 x54, 4 x20, 5 x0 ... etc. ... now I'm being a real sloth :D


Cheers
 

BushHappy

Member
Tarantula,

I sent the database for the SA Lottery to you.

I still don't see why you sometimes choose numbers from the bottom of your ranked list. If you have to do this, then its not a true ranked list as some of the more probable numbers are at the bottom.

Cheers,
BushHappy
 

Tarantula

Member
BushHappy,
I've updated the database with what you sent me.

You're right about the ranked list, however I'm viewing it more as a bell curve than a ranked list.

Without the "shuffle" which only applies if you are playing 9-14 numbers, my recent win would have been 2/5 instead of 4/5 and in that particular case I actually picked 5/5 (in 11 numbers) but the system I played only gave 4/5. In most lotteries, I could actually work the shuffle out of it by adjusting my parameters, but I really like the shuffle and I'm trying to come up with an improved shuffle that produces better results.

I'm sure that there are many educated people out there who could tear enormous holes in all my theories, you can't argue with results - in less than 100 tries I picked 5/5 in my lottery, on my second try I picked 5/5 in Virginia's lottery, in less than 30 tries I picked 5/5 in Pennsylvania's lottery - even if I only do it once in 100 tries I think that's pretty good. I've been playing various lotteries for many years off and on using a variety of systems I've come up with (mostly manual until now), and I've never had as many 3/5 and 4/5 picks as I've had since I started this program.

If I discovered that throwing all of the numbers into a hat and drawing them out worked as well - that's what I would do, even if it's not good logic, and doesn't make sense. Whatever I find that works is what I'll be using. In optimizing my parameters, I actually compare the results to random numbers, "hot" numbers (in this case defined as numbers drawn most recently), and the "shuffle" - in most cases the shuffle always comes out best. While I'm content with my results for just starting out, I want to do significantly better - so this is a work in progress with lots of ideas that I never seem to have enough time to implement.

In most of my analysis the shuffle provides better results than a straight list, and both of those provide better results than a randomly generated set of numbers.

Brad,
Your suggestion is actually in my plans, I just haven't got to it yet (although that will make the page slower to load because of the additional queries).

Thanks again everyone.
 

tomtom

Member
It's an advantage to have a real lottery fan at this board, and even better if such a fan has dedicated a lot of time for exploring various lotteries.

I would like to ask a few lottery questions:
- what do you think about lotteries using some sort of RNG machines for draws.

- if a 6 numbers lottery has had no JP winners for several months , or let’s say 30, 40, or even more draws, in your opinion how many tickets per draw were sold?
 

Brad

Member
Hey Tarantula,

what happened to your site? Looks like it got hi-jacked by 'Warriors of Valor' ... :notme:
 

Tarantula

Member
tomtom,
I don't know if it's really an advantage, and keep in mind that "fan" is short for "fanatic".

About 15 years ago I looked at the details of some of the methods used for drawing numbers, I'm sure these things make some difference and could be factored in but it would be levels above what I'm doing now, but I think it's not worth the effort to factor that in. I consider that there are two classes of drawings - mechanical and computer generated. Mechanical drawing methods have a unknown number of variables involved, so these will be more difficult to forecast. Computer generated numbers will have three - the seed of the random number generator, the starting point from where the numbers are taken, and the code used to generate the actual winning numbers. I believe that the deviation from "random" will be told as a story in the sequence of numbers generated as the results of the drawings. All I have to do is figure out exactly how to put that into an algorythm(sp) - I think I'm working in the right direction, only time will tell.

As far as ticket sales go, I don't really examine that aspect of it - but I would like to see the database of actual tickets sold for a given drawing. On my favorite, a pick 5 I've noticed that the jackpots go about once a month or so, most of the time to a single winner. I've also noticed that (drawn twice a day) about twice as many people play the evening drawing vs the midday drawing and last 6/7 jackpots were won in the evening.

Brad,
Yes it was hi-jacked by Warriors of Valor (for security reasons I won't explain exactly what happend, but I found it quite humerous - that's my brother's game server). I've corrected the problem and it shouldn't happen again.
 

tomtom

Member
Tarantula said:
<......> I've also noticed that (drawn twice a day) about twice as many people play the evening drawing vs the midday drawing and last 6/7 jackpots were won in the evening <.......>


Pick 5 lottery with two draws daily.....that must be a really nice game :agree:. Hope some more lottery officials around would consider many lottery players don't believe in some extreme big $$$ winning prospect possibly playing the huge odds 6/xx , 7/xx, etc lotteries and therefore do not like to risk any money or just occasionally play those games. Therefore, I’m sure there is a huge potential market in the pick 5 lottery games…but, of course only if a Mr. or Ms. Customer may choose his/her own numbers to play.
 

tomtom

Member
Re: Re: Re: Am I impatient ... or what?!

Brad said:

My guess is not many ppl play the BC49 anymore, I didn't till yesterday, hehe. BCLC's annual report is due out in March so that will confirm (disprove?) my guessing ...

Well, it seems you are right...I checked their site and compared numbers of 3/6 winners these days and one year ago when tickets were 50 cents...there were considerably more 3/6 winners before, which means probably that many more people were playing ....
Still, I like their statement numbers are drawn in an absolutely unpredictable and unbiased manner, so even $1/ticket is OK in my opinion…at least much better than $2 in 649..
 

Brad

Member
Imagine that after more than 6 months ...

Someone actually won the BC49 JP yesterday :eek: ... you think that maybe ... just maybe ... them BCLC shirts were reading our posts?!! :D

Re: post increase 3/6 winners (fewer of them) ... that's the result of only half the tickets being purchased for the same amount of money, assuming ppl did not change their lotto spending habits, IMO.

BC49 had too small a fan base to attract more gambling money with a $2M carrot (vs 1M). So them stuffed shirts figured the best way to max corp profit is to double the odds per buck, hence pay out much less to the loyal populace ... except I think they blew a hole in their size 9 Oxford, and lost many more 'followers' than planned instead.

Like I said the pudding proof will be in their annual, self-promotional, report ... :rolleyes:
 

Beaker

Member
Re: Imagine that after more than 6 months ...

Brad said:
Someone actually won the BC49 JP yesterday :eek: ... you think that maybe ... just maybe ... them BCLC shirts were reading our posts?!! :D

Re: post increase 3/6 winners (fewer of them) ... that's the result of only half the tickets being purchased for the same amount of money, assuming ppl did not change their lotto spending habits, IMO.

BC49 had too small a fan base to attract more gambling money with a $2M carrot (vs 1M). So them stuffed shirts figured the best way to max corp profit is to double the odds, hence pay out much less to the loyal populace ... except I think they blew a hole in their size 9 Oxford, and lost many more 'followers' than planned instead.

Like I said the pudding proof will be in their annual, self-promotional, report ... :rolleyes:
Someone hit in Ontario49 also :eek:
 

tomtom

Member
Re: Imagine that after more than 6 months ...

Brad said:
Someone actually won the BC49 JP yesterday :eek: ... you think that maybe ... just maybe ... them BCLC shirts were reading our posts?!! :D

Re: post increase 3/6 winners (fewer of them) ... that's the result of only half the tickets being purchased for the same amount of money, assuming ppl did not change their lotto spending habits, IMO.

BC49 had too small a fan base to attract more gambling money with a $2M carrot (vs 1M). So them stuffed shirts figured the best way to max corp profit is to double the odds per buck, hence pay out much less to the loyal populace ... except I think they blew a hole in their size 9 Oxford, and lost many more 'followers' than planned instead.

Like I said the pudding proof will be in their annual, self-promotional, report ... :rolleyes:

Well, if there were some tens of draws without a JP winner in any lottery would be quite extraordinary, and I'm sure not in my opinion only. That is the reason I went to their site and checked for the statements about drawn number randomness , unpredictability and neutrality. There is a clear legal statement about this matter, so the only reasonable explanation is - not that many people play BC/49 from some reasons.

And, speaking about reason, I was quite few times surprised by the fact how many local people-lottery players I spoke with do not know either about this lottery game existence at all , or about the game prizes.
Quite few of them were surprised finding that the JP is always in millions$, while the other prizes are also always quite OK for a $1/tickets.
In my opinion the main reason for this is a quite quiet marketing regarding the BC49 game, while almost every day a lottery player watching a TV or reading newspapers may heard or see about 649, super7 or even that Extra game...but not that much about the BC49.


However, I'm not sure if the local lottery officials are interested in reading any posts at this forum at all...If they were, they would probably consider some stronger marketing for the BC49 game and also a possible adjustment for that CHASER – pick 5 game, so that a player may choose his/her own numbers, may expect different prizes and the numbers should be drawn in an absolutely neutral and unpredictable manner….. Otherwise, I'm not sure if in future that game will ever play more than present from few tens or few hundreds up to few thousands players...
 
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Brad

Member
Is BC49 rigged?

Hey tomtom,

we've talked about this bfr with other BCers here, my thoughts were (are) it is not rigged ... others think it may be. That doesn't stop me from poking fun at the BCLC though ... and I would be flattered if they read my posts, lol. Somehow I think they have other priorities, like counting $$ ;)

Have a look at other provincial lottos and you may see loooong dry spells of no JP wins as well. For example, in ON49, from Jan/04 to present there were 4 wins total ... Aug17, Oct6, Oct13 and Feb26 (last draw). Then look at BC49 in the same time span ... Feb7, Feb14, Feb21, Apr7, Jun30, Jul10, Jul17, and Feb26 (last draw) ... these stats are from a quick look at Sympatico, who are known to have had errors in their base, so keep that in mind.

I think you're right that minimal exposure/advertising has an effect on ticket sales. What I find interesting though, based only on how many prizes are won in all categories, is that at first glance ON49 seems to have an even smaller player base than BC49 ... now given that ON has about 3x the population of BC I would have thought ON base would be proportionately larger ...

Also, given that ON49 is still selling at 50c/ticket, I was expecting an increase in its player base starting in June/04, like ppl who are miffed at the $2 cost of CN49 opting to play the cheaper lotto ... that didn't seem to have happened :notme:


Cheers
 
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tomtom

Member
Re: Is BC49 rigged?

Brad said:
Hey tomtom,

we've talked about this bfr with other BCers here, my thoughts were (are) it is not rigged ... others think it may be. That doesn't stop me from poking fun at the BCLC though ... and I would be flattered if they read my posts, lol. Somehow I think they have other priorities, like counting $$ ;)
<.....>
I think you're right that minimal exposure/advertising has an effect on ticket sales. What I find interesting though, based only on how many prizes are won in all categories, is that at first glance ON49 seems to have an even smaller player base than BC49 ... now given that ON has about 3x the population of BC I would have thought ON base would be proportionately larger ...
<.......>


My thoughts were about the same(not rigged), but however after seeing that many draws without any JP winners in a row :eek2: , wanted to make sure they change nothing regarding the way they draw numbers, so visited their site and checked for the legal statements, and the game's rules and regulations…:D...and by not finding any possibility for some small letters regarding this particular game, and after reading those statemets, especially one which states numbers are drawn in an UNBIASED manner, I'm sure BC49 game is 100% safe regarding any possible rigging , both internally and externally:). The site is updated after every draw, so there is also no any reason for possible avoidance of updating such crucial information as in which way the numbers are drawn is.

At the end, I’m not a casino player, but can you imagine a roulette game where a dealer, or anybody else in or out has a hidden magnetic device, making the ball stops anywhere else but on a random number somewhere around the wheel…. I don’t think such an event is legally possible by means of the way that game is regulated .
So since those lottery guys hold some much higher level licenses than casinos, if there were any known bias in the way the numbers were drawn, they would advice interested parties and not clearly state the numbers are drawn in an unbiased manner..

Speaking about any possible rigging in lottery games, it seems one of the possible ways in such a lotteries where a stand alone computer is used to draw the numbers would require a wireless network, so hope some disappointed lottery dude didn’t go there with a suitable device, checking if there existed any intensive wireless network in a half an hour or even more (since partially imported or checked database may provide a low or high % of accuracy depending on it's size) before draws…:lol:...
I don't think any serious lottery from security reasons would draw numbers using a computer which has had installed any hardware required for a wirelles network...nor has had instaled any software or a programming code on it in whole or partially which somehow in any way may affect the numbers randomness and unbiasedness..

Regarding ON49 and BC49, well, it seems ON always has something like 15% more 3/6 winners, so may that suggest about only 15% more people play ON49 than BC49 even three times more people live there?
However, I think the BC49 game is much better while considering both tickets costs and prizes, so that may be a reason proportionally much more people play BC49…Also, it seems in ON they have some more interesting games with a bit lower odds like 6/42 or such....
 
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Tarantula

Member
Fresh Start

On Monday, I changed the way I am presenting the forecasts. I have removed the "Shuffle", and now present a straight ranked list of numbers. I didn't actually remove the shuffle, I just altered the way that I implement it so it's no longer a manual process. As a result to maintain data consistancy I deleted all previous forecast data - both good and bad. The important thing to remember is that there is no more shuffling for you when you look at the forecast.

I have also added several lotteries, I'm up to 42 now (including the italian 6/90+1). With that in mind I won't be able to watch each individual lottery as closely as I would like. I don't plan to get past data for most lotteries, but if anyone wants to send me the past data for their lottery I'll add it. I'll still add any lottery on request, but have no plans for adding lotteries without request until I have more time.

I'm going to wait for the next 10 forecasts for each lottery before I reveiw and possibly change parameters for that lottery.

I am still working on a reasonable method of showing the overall forecast results for each lottery on the web site.

For those still interested, let's watch and see what happens ....

Thanks everyone for your time ...
 

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