UWR - to Nick Koutras

[Grandmaster]

Trying to ridiculize other people methods of analysis is not a good way to respect.
LA, your point is to show everyone UWR doesn't work because you believe that, but your point is weak, UWR has a history of sucess measuring wheel quality.

 

[lottoarchitect]

ridiculize?
The facts are posted here, its up to you to understand them. I don't ridiculize anything or anyone as I talk with facts and not just words.
Also, it is not a good way of respect when you tell me I have to learn more about coverings when you cannot understand this simple fact here.

 

[Grandmaster]

Lottoarchitect,

I understand your point, by "accident" you get your facts, proven that UWR was wrong in the case of the 49,6,3,6=163, obtaining the results in the older UWR v1.02.

In an early post Nick did a wheel better than WG1.4 optimized, that means Lottodesigner still do better wheels that WG1.4, in that analysis UWR show better results for Nick Koutras wheel, you accept the test.

UWR could have some details (minimal) but still is the best measure for wheels quality.

 

[lottoarchitect]

Now GrandMaster, please understand what I'm saying here, UWR does not indicate a better wheel. Also, better coverage does not necessarily mean better wheel. This is the whole point of this thread. I don't accept the wheel Nick Koutras posted as better because it just happens to have better UWR. I don't accept UWR in first place. I accept it as another design only with better coverage. So? Obviously it will have better coverage because the wheel has been designed with maximum coverage in mind. If you follow all the posts, what you should understand by now, is that maximum coverage is not good for the wheel's quality. Other things are more important and you can understand that by observing the last wheel posted and its coverage. As a matter of fact, we do not have a good measure system. This is the outcome of the thread.

 

[Grandmaster]

LA,

Let's talk about Absolute Wheel Ratio AWR, why 3 letters as UWR, is AWR the competence of UWR? marketing strategy? or simple coincidence?

 

[lottoarchitect]

I posted this as an example, if everyone here comes out with his own measurement system, then obviously this will not be good. I don't have a AWR and nothing to do with UWR naming. Actually, all I asked is Nick Koutras to have a look at the matter and come out with an improved UWR. I don't have any intention to change the name or create a competitor. I have an intention to have a better measure system under the UWR that can be accepted by anyone and that's all. As Nick Koutras owns UWR, I ask him to improve this.

 

[BushHappy]

Here is a wheel with UWR = 29367 whic is lower than any of the wheels mentioned above. It has a 4if6 cover of 15.73% which is also better. Wheel A is a split wheel which I beleive is a drawback.

1 2 4 21 30 38
1 2 6 10 19 40
1 3 5 17 25 26
1 3 13 20 35 48
1 4 8 11 36 42
1 4 13 14 22 26
1 5 20 32 39 42
1 5 30 31 35 45
1 6 27 34 37 42
1 7 12 18 23 49
1 7 22 27 29 44
1 8 15 18 22 28
1 9 19 21 28 44
1 9 37 41 45 47
1 10 12 31 41 46
1 11 15 16 17 43
1 13 32 33 36 41
1 14 28 30 40 49
1 16 24 25 46 47
1 23 29 34 39 40
1 25 33 38 43 48
2 3 6 13 41 49
2 3 8 23 25 28
2 4 5 10 26 36
2 5 12 21 32 35
2 5 13 19 28 38
2 7 8 30 34 36
2 7 14 16 24 38
2 9 12 13 15 39
2 9 17 22 42 46
2 10 17 27 37 49
2 11 32 43 45 46
2 11 39 40 41 44
2 14 15 22 27 48
2 16 18 29 41 42
2 16 20 31 33 45
2 17 20 23 24 44
2 18 20 25 35 47
2 26 31 42 47 48
2 29 33 34 37 43
3 4 6 11 30 44
3 4 27 31 35 40
3 5 7 41 43 46
3 6 22 35 37 43
3 7 19 26 39 47
3 8 10 33 39 44
3 9 18 24 27 30
3 9 28 29 32 42
3 10 16 21 45 46
3 10 22 34 41 48
3 11 14 18 29 31
3 12 14 32 37 47
3 12 20 24 38 40
3 15 17 36 38 42
3 15 19 30 34 45
3 16 18 25 36 40
3 21 23 33 42 49
4 5 9 27 29 38
4 6 17 19 29 36
4 7 15 32 43 49
4 7 16 33 35 37
4 8 9 17 33 47
4 9 19 24 48 49
4 10 23 39 43 47
4 11 13 18 34 40
4 12 14 16 28 39
4 12 25 42 44 45
4 14 19 20 23 41
4 15 21 25 27 41
4 18 24 26 29 46
4 20 22 28 32 34
4 23 37 38 46 48
5 6 8 16 22 40
5 6 28 33 44 46
5 7 15 23 44 45
5 8 9 23 31 43
5 10 13 17 40 47
5 11 12 15 37 38
5 11 24 27 36 41
5 12 18 33 39 48
5 14 15 21 24 34
5 14 25 29 37 39
5 16 19 26 30 33
5 16 20 34 48 49
5 22 28 42 47 49
6 7 9 13 23 32
6 7 21 36 47 48
6 8 14 21 23 45
6 9 10 15 18 35
6 11 20 22 31 39
6 12 17 24 33 34
6 12 26 28 41 48
6 14 17 20 30 46
6 15 25 26 31 49
6 16 25 32 34 38
6 18 19 27 38 47
6 24 38 39 42 43
7 8 24 25 31 41
7 9 11 20 21 26
7 9 12 30 37 40
7 10 14 31 34 42
7 10 20 25 30 39
7 11 17 28 40 48
7 13 27 28 33 45
7 17 18 22 38 45
7 19 29 35 42 46
8 10 11 32 38 49
8 11 14 19 34 46
8 12 20 27 46 49
8 13 15 20 29 47
8 13 26 30 35 38
8 15 16 37 39 48
8 17 21 26 37 41
8 18 21 40 42 43
8 19 22 30 37 44
8 24 29 32 35 48
9 10 11 14 25 33
9 14 36 40 45 48
9 16 19 31 32 36
9 16 22 30 41 43
9 25 34 35 44 49
9 26 34 38 39 46
10 12 19 27 42 43
10 13 21 22 24 29
10 15 26 28 29 45
10 16 23 24 28 35
10 17 30 32 42 48
10 18 20 36 37 44
11 12 22 23 26 35
11 13 24 37 42 45
11 16 21 23 27 47
11 19 25 28 36 37
11 29 30 33 47 49
12 13 19 22 25 32
12 16 17 29 31 44
12 20 21 29 36 43
12 34 35 36 45 47
13 14 17 25 35 43
13 15 23 30 36 46
13 16 26 27 42 44
13 18 31 37 46 49
13 21 31 34 44 48
14 18 26 27 32 33
14 26 36 43 44 49
14 35 38 41 44 47
15 19 24 31 33 40
15 20 33 35 41 42
15 32 40 44 46 47
17 18 23 28 34 41
17 19 21 35 39 49
17 27 31 32 39 45
18 19 43 44 45 48
18 21 30 32 39 41
20 21 28 31 37 38
20 26 27 34 40 43
21 22 25 33 40 46
22 23 31 33 36 38
22 24 36 39 45 49
23 24 26 32 37 40
23 25 27 29 30 48
24 28 30 31 43 47
27 28 35 36 39 46
29 38 40 41 45 49

Cheers,
BushHappy

 

[Grandmaster]

UWR still correct,

I retested the 3 wheels, Dragan, Wheel B of Lotto Arcitect and Nick Wheel UWR 45570.

Results after test of 10000 runs with the values win 3=10 units win 4=60 units:

Dragan wheel UWR 48074
3 8593
4 1381
5 26

Wheel B LA UWR 29465
3 8400
4 1507
5 34

Nick Wheel UWR 45570
3 8428
4 1484
5 30

Conclusions:

Dragan wheel hits more often in hit 3 category for obvious reason 3 if 6 100%.

After UWR analysis of the 3 wheels, the lowest UWR wheel has the best results in winnings. More hits in 4 and 5.

Low UWR means more $.

Finally, wheel B is better than Dragan and Nick wheel is better than Dragan.

 

[Grandmaster]

After reviewing analysis the UWR of the 3 wheels is correct.

I think Nick made a human mistake not checking UWR of the generated wheel, but results of the wheel shows that the generated wheel is better than the original Dragan wheel with UWR of 48074, because Nick wheel has a UWR of 45570.

Wheel B with UWR of 29465 is the best of the three in winnings.

Conclusion:

Low UWR means better quality of wheel.

 

[lottoarchitect]

First, if the 10000 runs means you test randomly a possible outcome of the next draw and compare it with the wheels, this is not statistically a valid result. So the results you got tell me nothing. What is the confidence interval a of the experiment? Or there is none? You just check 10000 random results and compare? This is totally wrong to get any conclusions.
The only correct way to know what a wheel produces in terms of hits is the detailed report or design a correct statistical experiment. Now, forget about runs, forget about units (totally subjective to define a value for a win category) and have a look at what the wheels offer in terms of hits. Perhaps we should design an average hit value to solve this matter forever.

 

[Grandmaster]

Lottoarchitect,

I'll do another analysis for you as you can't understand my previous analysis (I recommend you read some books of statistics and mathematics), I'll tell you again why UWR is still correct..

Good news! is you can do it this time with Covermaster.


Results if 6 numbers:


Dragan wheel UWR 48074

3 100%
4 14.42328%
5 0.30147%


Nick wheel UWR 45570

3 99.51434%
4 14.78323%
5 0.30190%


Wheel B LA 29465

3 99.30631%
4 15.71836%
5 0.30190%


Conclusions:

As you can see here LA the wheel with lower UWR is the best of the 3, because it generates more wins in the categories 4 and 5. In the category 3 with 99.30631 (enough for many people) is not the best of the 3 wheels but it doesn't matter, you get more $ with 4 or 5 correct.

Dragan wheel is the weakest in categories 4 and 5 but the only advantage is 100% (0.49% better than Nick wheel) in 3. This wheel clearly the worst of the 3 wheels in winnings ($).

Nick wheel acts according to its UWR, it hits better than wheel B in 3, same as wheel B in 5 but worst than wheel B in 4.

Finally,

Your past facts no longer exist LA, UWR is correct.

 

[lottoarchitect]

Thanks for the suggestion on books, for your reference I'm already a mathematician and spent lots of years in such books and many more you don't know about. I'm not sure about your knowledge on the subject.
As for the results, probably you haven't understand yet that the whole matter with UWR is that it shows if a wheel has better coverage on all categories but at the same time, this wheel proves to be worse in terms of hits produced (which is basically what I'm discussing about here). Therefore, the quality is lower. There is not a strict relationship between coverage and quality. If we define quality as increase of coverage, then yes UWR is the best we can have. But explain to me, why increase in coverage results in better wheel when in fact it provides worse hit results.
This is what I explained in all previous posts. We do need a better measure system. As for the statistics you display, these are simply the coverage offered by each category. As I have explained many many times, this DOES NOT INDICATE a better wheel. You'll not convince me on this matter anyway. UWR is good only if you want to compare wheels in terms of coverage but not of wheel's quality in overall. So, you better understand first what I'm talking about as all these examples you provide as a proof, do not show anything new I don't know about.
And finally, how a fact cannot exist when it is a fact? You don't provide some good proof of whatever you say.

 

[SRM]

I appear to have had one of my postings dropped from the forum.

It may have been a bit of a fire starter of a post but, - never offencive - never should have been dropped imho.

I do not subscribe to the UWR method of system analisys.
Either a 49-6-3-6 system is equal to 163, the next improvement being bounds = 162.

Regards,
Steve.

 

[Karnac]

I appear to have had one of my postings dropped from the forum.

It may have been a bit of a fire starter of a post but, - never offencive - never should have been dropped imho.

I do not subscribe to the UWR method of system analisys.
Either a 49-6-3-6 system is equal to 163, the next improvement being bounds = 162.

Regards,
Steve.

Steve ...It appears a whole lot of posts disappeared overnight...in various sections

 

[PAB]

Hi Nick Koutras & lottoarchitect,

If I have an Abbreviated Wheel LD(24,6,2,6;15) for Example, and the 15 Combinations are in Cells "G13:L27" ( One Number Per Cell ), How can I Produce the Total Combinations "Covered" ( Either Using Excel Formulas Or VB Code ) for Each Category Please.
Perhaps you could Explain How the "Covered" Combinations are Calculated in Respect to the Abbreviated Wheel Please.
I have Started a New Thread Here with FULL Details :-

http://www.lotto649.ws/showthread.php?s=&threadid=6157

Thanks in Advance.
All the Best.
PAB

 

[LoveLotto]

Im Looking for Nick . How can I find him ?