UWR - to Nick Koutras

[lottoarchitect]

Wheel B tickets C(49,6,3,6,99.3%)=163

3 4 31 37 41 44
14 21 31 35 40 42
14 15 22 24 36 44
9 15 22 28 31 42
19 21 26 28 33 43
1 3 33 38 39 44
3 5 19 34 46 47
7 16 19 39 44 48
12 20 28 31 34 49
19 24 28 30 32 38
3 22 27 28 30 47
2 3 17 30 44 46
24 28 40 44 47 48
9 14 25 30 39 44
10 11 14 18 31 39
14 16 19 23 29 40
6 10 14 19 27 47
3 14 20 37 45 48
3 6 18 28 29 40
3 4 15 19 21 25
3 6 25 31 32 34
4 14 17 28 36 41
2 14 16 25 28 33
8 11 28 37 44 46
5 11 19 21 44 49
9 10 26 31 40 44
1 13 17 19 31 45
1 3 5 7 14 40
3 9 16 26 36 38
1 10 17 20 21 28
7 8 12 14 15 37
5 27 32 43 44 45
3 8 10 13 34 45
25 30 31 43 47 48
12 21 30 31 41 45
13 21 29 35 43 44
4 14 22 26 42 45
3 10 23 27 43 49
4 10 16 28 29 39
9 10 19 24 25 35
6 10 28 33 36 46
19 23 33 36 42 48
2 20 22 31 33 35
14 29 41 42 43 49
1 7 13 26 28 34
3 11 17 18 26 42
2 8 19 22 29 45
3 9 21 23 24 41
7 8 18 19 27 43
5 10 23 30 31 36
4 17 18 29 32 44
7 25 29 31 46 49
1 2 9 14 27 34
1 14 18 24 35 46
6 8 20 36 44 49
12 14 21 32 33 48
2 11 12 13 19 36
2 11 15 31 38 43
9 15 19 36 43 46
1 10 12 22 42 44
8 16 24 31 36 37
3 22 26 29 35 48
20 33 34 41 42 44
8 18 23 31 32 33
5 13 18 25 28 42
7 15 17 23 31 47
7 24 38 44 45 49
5 6 11 28 35 45
4 11 13 14 27 30
5 8 13 14 23 49
2 9 28 32 37 43
12 13 23 28 35 38
12 14 26 38 46 47
6 14 20 25 38 43
1 4 8 19 32 34
19 20 25 27 39 41
8 15 28 39 40 41
2 4 15 16 35 44
3 7 12 22 39 43
15 23 27 28 45 48
2 19 24 26 40 49
6 9 18 44 45 47
6 13 26 31 39 42
5 16 17 27 31 46
1 24 27 29 31 38
3 18 33 35 47 49
2 3 8 12 24 42
12 23 26 27 41 44
6 19 23 30 35 37
3 13 20 32 38 41
16 18 19 37 38 41
2 6 7 21 41 46
11 15 20 30 40 46
6 15 17 26 29 41
1 6 12 16 25 48
5 17 22 33 37 38
5 7 9 22 25 41
4 17 20 40 42 43
17 23 32 34 39 40
8 9 30 33 40 43
13 15 16 24 43 49
4 6 12 29 34 43
17 22 27 34 36 49
4 9 13 46 48 49
21 34 36 38 42 47
1 5 8 35 41 47
7 10 11 16 21 40
1 12 18 36 39 40
8 9 12 17 35 39
1 15 23 25 35 42
7 17 35 36 43 48
15 16 18 30 34 45
4 7 26 27 33 37
1 21 23 43 45 46
1 26 30 32 36 37
6 16 30 33 42 49
4 5 36 38 40 48
8 10 15 17 25 38
10 11 22 34 41 48
1 9 11 20 23 29
16 17 32 42 45 47
1 11 16 22 43 47
4 6 22 23 24 46
7 18 20 22 23 37
4 5 9 12 16 20
4 10 20 24 33 45
10 15 26 32 48 49
13 15 21 27 37 39
2 18 23 34 38 48
12 13 17 18 22 30
11 27 32 35 36 41
5 12 15 24 29 32
1 5 6 15 18 33
8 21 26 29 30 38
2 5 10 29 37 42
13 24 33 37 41 47
7 13 20 29 30 36
2 5 20 26 39 45
12 25 37 40 45 49
25 29 36 39 45 47
2 7 10 13 32 47
11 29 33 39 46 48
8 16 20 21 22 32
9 11 12 27 33 45
18 20 21 24 27 48
10 18 26 41 43 46
13 22 25 32 40 46
6 11 22 38 39 49
11 17 24 25 34 37
16 20 26 34 35 46
2 4 21 23 39 47
7 9 11 24 32 42
5 24 30 34 39 43
2 18 21 25 36 49
1 2 30 41 48 49
4 7 10 30 35 38
8 27 38 42 46 48
6 9 17 21 37 48
9 29 34 37 47 49
4 8 11 25 26 47
2 6 13 16 27 40
32 35 37 39 42 46
7 33 34 35 40 45

You can get wheel A from the Rade & Dragans website

 

[Grandmaster]

Second wheel is better,

It doesn't matter if the wheel doesn't guarantee 6 if 3 100%, because the coverage in other categories is better than the Dragan,

I made a test of both wheels using LA program in Georgia Lotto south last 100 draws, the second wheels always hits at least 1 of 3.

The Dragan wheel is very weak.

 

[lottoarchitect]

What we should consider here, is we pick a 3if6 wheel to do some work. Why don't we get the most out of 3if6 first? Obviously, wheel B cannot do that. Now, when we ensure the 3if6 has its optimal behaviour, then we can look for improving the other categories too. Otherwise, if you are interested in other categories, design a 3if4 or whatever wheel, you'll not use a 3if6 for that anyway. Why to pick a 3if6 wheel if you don't expect to hit 6 numbers? Isn't this the reason you choose to use a 3if6 wheel? The point here is not the coverage in all categories but gain more at the category we choose and have good coverage in other categories too afterwards if possible.
Rade&Dragans wheel is not weak at all. It does have lower coverage on other categories but it has good hits that wheel B cannot even approach. Also, it offers at least 1-3# hit if you match 6 whilst wheel B doesn't. Also, explain why wheel A is weak. Where your definition of weak based on?

 

[Grandmaster]

My weak definition is based on experience and comments about Dragan wheel.

 

[Nick Koutras]

Yet you know that Statistically wheel B is better but
you doubt it power.

Make a simple test of only 10000 runs vs the two wheel but
put values of return to each.
Win 3 = 10 units
Win 4 = 60 units

Without doubt these are the numbers you should look for
the player NOT the number of Win 3 only.

The results shall be:
Wheel A: Dragans
Win 3 =~8557
Win 4 =~1417
win 5 =~26


Wheel B:
Win 3 =~8383
Win 4 =~1516
Win 5 =~22

Translating in Units
we shall have 200 more 3 unit Hits
and *LESS* 100 4 unit hits
Which means that we may gain 2000 Units and Loose 6000 units
for a difference of MINUS 4000 units.

You can repeat this test as many times as you like.


Wheel B is Statistically Stronger and IS a better wheel.

Here is better version of this Wheel B
that has even better hit average.

1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 7 8 9 10
1 2 11 12 13 14
1 2 15 16 17 18
1 2 19 20 21 22
1 3 7 11 15 19
1 3 8 12 16 20
1 3 9 13 17 21
1 3 10 14 18 22
1 4 7 12 17 22
1 4 8 11 18 21
1 4 9 14 15 20
1 4 10 13 16 19
1 5 7 13 18 20
1 5 8 14 17 19
1 5 9 11 16 22
1 5 10 12 15 21
1 6 7 14 16 21
1 6 8 13 15 22
1 6 9 12 18 19
1 6 10 11 17 20
2 3 7 12 18 21
2 3 8 11 17 22
2 3 9 14 16 19
2 3 10 13 15 20
2 4 7 11 16 20
2 4 8 12 15 19
2 4 9 13 18 22
2 4 10 14 17 21
2 5 7 14 15 22
2 5 8 13 16 21
2 5 9 12 17 20
2 5 10 11 18 19
2 6 7 13 17 19
2 6 8 14 18 20
2 6 9 11 15 21
2 6 10 12 16 22
3 4 7 8 13 14
3 4 9 10 11 12
3 4 15 16 21 22
3 4 17 18 19 20
3 5 7 10 16 17
3 5 8 9 15 18
3 5 11 14 20 21
3 5 12 13 19 22
3 6 7 9 20 22
3 6 8 10 19 21
3 6 11 13 16 18
3 6 12 14 15 17
4 5 7 9 19 21
4 5 8 10 20 22
4 5 11 13 15 17
4 5 12 14 16 18
4 6 7 10 15 18
4 6 8 9 16 17
4 6 11 14 19 22
4 6 12 13 20 21
5 6 7 8 11 12
5 6 9 10 13 14
5 6 15 16 19 20
5 6 17 18 21 22
7 8 15 17 20 21
7 8 16 18 19 22
7 9 11 14 17 18
7 9 12 13 15 16
7 10 11 13 21 22
7 10 12 14 19 20
8 9 11 13 19 20
8 9 12 14 21 22
8 10 11 14 15 16
8 10 12 13 17 18
9 10 15 17 19 22
9 10 16 18 20 21
11 12 15 18 20 22
11 12 16 17 19 21
13 14 15 18 19 21
13 14 16 17 20 22
23 24 25 26 27 28
23 24 29 30 31 32
23 24 33 34 35 36
23 25 26 29 33 37
23 25 30 33 38 39
23 25 34 38 40 41
23 26 31 35 42 43
23 26 34 36 40 44
23 27 31 34 37 42
23 27 35 38 40 46
23 27 36 42 44 45
23 28 30 39 43 47
23 28 35 38 41 42
23 29 31 45 47 48
23 30 39 40 48 49
23 32 33 37 43 44
23 32 36 46 47 48
23 41 44 45 46 49
24 25 30 41 42 45
24 25 31 38 44 47
24 26 27 32 33 36
24 26 29 35 44 49
24 26 34 35 38 48
24 27 35 41 43 47
24 28 29 32 44 46
24 28 30 34 36 47
24 29 37 40 42 48
24 30 31 37 45 46
24 30 31 40 43 44
24 33 39 42 46 49
24 33 40 41 45 49
24 34 36 39 41 48
24 37 38 39 40 47
24 39 43 45 46 48
25 26 28 33 40 47
25 27 32 36 43 45
25 27 39 40 42 44
25 28 32 34 37 47
25 28 35 37 45 46
25 29 31 36 39 49
25 29 33 41 43 48
25 29 34 39 44 45
25 30 35 36 44 48
25 30 35 37 43 49
25 31 34 40 43 46
25 32 35 42 48 49
25 38 41 46 47 49
26 27 28 38 45 48
26 27 30 39 46 47
26 28 31 36 38 42
26 29 34 42 47 49
26 29 36 40 41 46
26 30 31 32 41 44
26 30 33 36 45 48
26 32 35 39 41 45
26 32 38 39 43 49
26 34 37 43 44 46
26 37 41 44 47 48
27 28 31 40 48 49
27 28 34 42 44 49
27 29 30 38 47 49
27 29 31 37 39 41
27 29 35 36 43 46
27 30 33 34 35 41
27 31 32 41 42 43
27 32 34 40 43 48
27 33 37 38 44 48
28 29 30 34 35 39
28 29 33 38 43 45
28 30 32 37 40 45
28 31 33 41 46 48
28 31 35 39 44 48
28 36 37 41 43 49
29 30 33 42 44 46
29 31 32 35 38 41
29 32 33 39 40 42
29 32 34 37 46 49
30 34 38 42 43 48
30 36 37 38 45 49
31 33 34 45 47 49
31 35 36 37 40 47
32 33 35 44 47 49
32 34 38 39 42 46
33 36 37 39 42 47
33 36 38 39 43 44
35 40 42 43 45 47

 

[lottoarchitect]

Accepted. Still, between these two wheels, Dragan is better for the above reasons. I don't say Dragan is the best we can have of course but at least is is much closer to the reason we pick a 3if6 wheel. Also, one part you haven't noticed at the LA's report of wins, is the overall earnnings you have. Dragan will return more money, even if wheel B provides better coverage. A balance between hits & coverage is the key and not only coverage. Even better, multiple hits is the key without interested in coverage at all.

 

[Nick Koutras]

Here it is the ANOVA sheet test
to use:

http://s20.yousendit.com/d.aspx?id=0UGQFJY3FLR2L1XE7XMFTM4ME1

The site may allow only 25 downloads.

I'll post more times if so requested

 

[Nick Koutras]

Accepted. Still, between these two wheels, Dragan is better for the above reasons. I don't say Dragan is the best we can have of course but at least is is much closer to the reason we pick a 3if6 wheel. Also, one part you haven't noticed at the LA's report of wins, is the overall earnnings you have. Dragan will return more money, even if wheel B provides better coverage. A balance between hits & coverage is the key and not only coverage. Even better, multiple hits is the key without interested in coverage at all.

If this is for me.
I do not agree.

Dragans wheel Will NOT return more moneys to the player.
It will return more 3-hits YES.


Wheel B *will do that* Return more money to the player!

If LA can test that you can prove that period.!!!!

 

[Grandmaster]

I also don't agree Dragan wheel is better, the UWR is clear showing better results for second wheel.

 

[lottoarchitect]

Now, Nick Koutras you present a contradiction here. The last wheel you posted offers a UWR=45569.806. According to your sayings, this is a worse wheel than the wheel B. Also, if you notice, the coverage of the wheel you present is about the same as wheel A. What happened to the coverage improvements compared to wheel B??

Last wheel posted
T if M Tested Covered % Not Covered %
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2 If 2 : 1,176 582 49.48980 594 50.51020
2 If 3 : 18,424 18,424 100.00000 0 0.00000
2 If 4 : 211,876 211,876 100.00000 0 0.00000
2 If 5 : 1,906,884 1,906,884 100.00000 0 0.00000
2 If 6 : 13,983,816 13,983,816 100.00000 0 0.00000
2 If 7 : 85,900,584 85,900,584 100.00000 0 0.00000
3 If 3 : 18,424 3,088 16.76075 15,336 83.23925
3 If 4 : 211,876 100,207 47.29512 111,669 52.70488
3 If 5 : 1,906,884 1,582,329 82.97982 324,555 17.02018
3 If 6 : 13,983,816 13,915,902 99.51434 67,914 0.48566
3 If 7 : 85,900,584 85,900,584 100.00000 0 0.00000
4 If 4 : 211,876 2,445 1.15398 209,431 98.84602
4 If 5 : 1,906,884 104,503 5.48030 1,802,381 94.51970
4 If 6 : 13,983,816 2,067,259 14.78323 11,916,557 85.21677
4 If 7 : 85,900,584 23,762,983 27.66335 62,137,601 72.33665
5 If 5 : 1,906,884 978 0.05129 1,905,906 99.94871
5 If 6 : 13,983,816 42,217 0.30190 13,941,599 99.69810
5 If 7 : 85,900,584 888,515 1.03435 85,012,069 98.96565
6 If 7 : 85,900,584 7,009 0.00816 85,893,575 99.99184

Now, you truly confuse me because from what I understand, we should use wheels that have to lowest possible UWR and you present a new one, saying it is better and has a worse UWR than wheel B and also has about the same coverage with wheel A??? What's going on here? Did you change the definition of what is a better wheel??
The above post was for Grandmaster.
As for the statistically correct results, I said UWR is valid for the purpose it is designed for but this does not indicate a better wheel. The reason is the post I explained before. As for the overall wins earned, it is simple to understand that if you hit once on a higher category, you have more 'free' tries to earn again which in overall results in more earnings for the player. Wheel B cannot do that as it disallows any chances for good hits.
As for the units you present, only you know what those means. I have the reports which tell me anything I need to know for a wheel. And a final comment, the last wheel you posted is actually very close to the Dragan's one, so I notice you have changed your opinion about what is a better wheel. Good, because this is what I'm saying so far and try to show here.

 

[Grandmaster]

Lottoarchitect,

I don't think UWR is wrong as you are saying here.

 

[lottoarchitect]

Lottoarchitect,

I don't think UWR is wrong as you are saying here.

Nick Koutras proved it wrong already.
He says the last wheel is better than wheel B and UWR indicates a value of around 45500 whilst wheel B has a UWR of a value 29500. Nick Koutras says wheel B is worse so UWR is an invalid measure as you understand.

 

[Grandmaster]

Remember we are using v1.02, Nick knows Lottodesigner better.

 

[lottoarchitect]

Yes but the definition of UWR should not change from version to version. Besides, it is a mathematical construction and should provide the same result on the same wheels on all versions. Otherwise, if it changes on each version, I have an additional reason not to accept it as a valid measure. I don't use it anyway and I hope now you understand why you should not use it as well.

 

[Nick Koutras]

By posting the wheel above
yes I did make a mistake.

I did not test its UWR.

I'm not changing my opinion about the UWR.

I believe its worth and I stand by it.
That is the reason I posted the link for the ANOVA spreadsheet.
for all to understand and use it as you please.


The concept of UWR is very old, and its number, as it is used in
LottoDesignerXL v1.02 is not very clear to the player.


I'll revise the value between 0 and 1 on the
next version of LottoDesignerXL.

 

[Grandmaster]

I also don't change my opinion, UWR is great for testing wheel quality.

 

[lottoarchitect]

As you wish.
I'm interested in a good measure of wheels quality and I have proposed several aspects that can affect a wheel. The UWR as is, is not really accurate. I don't say the concept is bad but as you can see, it is not enough. My aim is to have a better measure system for everyone to use. I want this as well and to be an accepted measure by everyone. My propose is to think what we can include in such a measure system and how to evaluate a wheel correctly. If you want to keep using UWR, go on. I have proved my point here about UWR and have nothing more to add.

 

[Nick Koutras]

LA, your posts do have a touch of innuendos.

I'm not willing to accept any of them.

I did not start this thread and I did not
provided any such to my posts.

If you could reduce the tone of your posts
that will be appreciated.

 

[Grandmaster]

Lottoarchitect,

You have to be more respectful to Nick and others, remebered when I lost my head and told you bull**** in the same thread.

 

[lottoarchitect]

Grandmaster and Nick Koutras, I respect everyone in here as long as they respect me. My posts have a reason to be here and this one was about UWR. Now, if the outcome of this 'hurts', this is not my fault really. Should I keep this inside me? I suppose everyone in here comes to learn something and discuss matters. I do not accept anything as granted as I hope everyone else in here do the same too. I suggested Nick Koutras a refinement of a wheel measure quality. If he says no, ok - his decision. I'll create my own AWR (Absolute Wheel Ratio) then and see what will happen. This is not a solution. I don't have any personal problems with anyone here. I just see, read, judge and comment.