Using a pool a numbers from recent draws for the next one!

thornc

Member
Dennis Bassboss said:
This was the post in question here... :eek2: :eek3:

Didn't see that one, but the idea is the same here.... except that I'm looking at ways to automate the selection as well as possible triggers!
 
I don't know if it somebody has the expected values for numbers hitting from the last 4 draws and the same thing from the last 6 draws? :confused:
That would be very funny to see.... :agree: :clown: :agree2:
 

thornc

Member
Dennis Bassboss said:
I don't know if it somebody has the expected values for numbers hitting from the last 4 draws and the same thing from the last 6 draws?
What do you mean by this?? Math Expected Values?? Anyway I'm sure GilesD can give us a hand...
 
Since the beginning with bonus the Canadian 6/49 has for repeaters a values of 1,00749625187406 repeat on back to back draw...by looking at 4 draws back that value would definitely increase a lot....
:agree:
 

thornc

Member
Dennis Bassboss said:
Since the beginning with bonus the Canadian 6/49 has for repeaters a values of 1,00749625187406 repeat on back to back draw...by looking at 4 draws back that value would definitely increase a lot....
:agree:

So you mean that there's close to 1 repeats from draw to draw??
By other word, 1 of the numbers in a present draw was present in the previous draw!

Ok, I think I understand I'll try to look into calculating for 4/5 draws!!!
 

Beaker

Member
thornc said:
So you mean that there's close to 1 repeats from draw to draw??
By other word, 1 of the numbers in a present draw was present in the previous draw!

Ok, I think I understand I'll try to look into calculating for 4/5 draws!!!
Repeaters from the last draw of course - this shouldn't be a surprise to anyone who has followed this site :dang:

Check it for your lotto thornc :agree:
 

thornc

Member
Beaker said:
Repeaters from the last draw of course - this shouldn't be a surprise to anyone who has followed this site :dang:
I was confused by the comma Beaker, my first impression was 1*10^15 repeats??? So I had to confirm...

Check it for your lotto thornc :agree:
I think that in the full history my lotto isn't so generous, I'll check it as soon as I get home!! I'm working late... :(


You and Dennis, are really tuned to each other...
 
This is the actual value or average for the PT 6/49 lottery concerning repeaters from the previous draw... counting the last 998 draws...
1,03510531594784
:agree:
 
Repeats after N draws in a 6/49 Game.

Repeats after N draws in a 6/49 Game.


The probability of 0 repeats on the next draw is:
6c0*43c6/49c6=1*6,096,454/13,983816= 0.43596

So the probability for 1 or more repeats is 1-.43596= 0.56404

But this is not of easy use by a regular player,
because we can have 1,2,3,4,5 or 6 repeats probable!
To built a Binomial Distribution upper and lower limits
will be very complicated to understand.

Below is a table of the average number of repeats after N draws, the easy way.

DRAW Avg. Repeats
0 0
1 6*6/49=0.735
2 12*6/49=1.469
3 18*6/49=2.204
4 24*6/49=2.939
5 30*6/49=3.673
6 36*6/49=4.408
7 42*6/49=5.143
8 48*6/49=5.878
 

GillesD

Member
Repeat after N draws

I do not know if we measure the same thing but using the Lotto 6/49 (2002 draws), I get the following results:

1 draw: 0.746 repeats
2 draws: 1.484 repeats
3 draws: 2.233 repeats
4 draws: 2.960 repeats
5 draws: 3.713 repeats
6 draws: 4.462 repeats
7 draws: 5.199 repeats
8 draws: 5.921 repeats

Results are fairly near your own results but always slightly higher; differences range from 0.011 to 0.056. Maybe it is because I include multiple repeats in my calculations.

By the way, Nick K. you must be the same guy that put out the Probability Calculator. I found that on the web quite a few years ago but I still use it on a fairly regular basis.
 

thornc

Member
Very interesting...

Thanks Nick and Gilles,

What about looking at medians instead of averages??

And Nick your calculations are nice, but most of the times you get less numbers than then 6*NoDraws and you still get godd results... I think it all depends on the moment...

Hence the idea of finding a good trigger to play...
 

hot4

Member
Brad said:
Strange but true ... I cut my teeth so to speak on a very similar strategy a number of years back, using BC49 of course.

Used N=4, with and without bonus, subbing for and without numbers that repeated within N=4, etc. Have results going back to draw one ... maybe it's time to dust off the old spread sheet and feed it into WH somehow :cool:

I like the direction of this thread, keep it coming thornc and all :agree2:


Brad,

you can see hits of last 4 draws at www.sorte.no.sapo.pt.

It shows results in UK National Lottery and Totoloto (Portugal), with inclusion of Bonus number and without Bonus number.

Till now, you can conclude that this strategy don't win everytime. May be your tests can be made in a good scenario.

Hot
 

thornc

Member
hot4 said:
Brad,

you can see hits of last 4 draws at www.sorte.no.sapo.pt.

It shows results in UK National Lottery and Totoloto (Portugal), with inclusion of Bonus number and without Bonus number.

Till now, you can conclude that this strategy don't win everytime. May be your tests can be made in a good scenario.

Hot

Hello Hot, welcome....
Es Portugues??
Or did you find that link(sapo.pt) by chance??

Are you the author of the site?
 
Last edited:

Brad

Member
Thanks Hot4,

interesting results, at first glance they're very similar to mine. I'll take a closer look when I have time.

originally posted by Dennis ... Nothing is new here I once saw a site where this was debated...but I can't find it anymore....

I saw a site many moons ago that used the same approach, and used 'trigger draws' (my term, they called it something diff). Looking at what happened say 50,100,200 ... etc. draws ago, one could supposedly find a cycle and thus predict when to apply the system ... haven't found one for BC49, yet. I lost the link to that site ...
 

hot4

Member
thornc said:
Hello Hot, welcome....
Es Portugues??
Or did you find that link(sapo.pt) by chance??

Are you the author of the site?

Olá Thornc,

Yes, I'm from Portugal and my intention is to update results of last 4 draws from time to time. (Sim vivo em Portugal e o meu objectivo é actualizar os resultados dos últimos 4 sorteios de tempos a tempos.)

I think in next update better conclusions will come , so that we can use last 4 draws numbers when they seem good. (Penso que proximamente as conclusões serão melhores para que se possa utilizar os números quentes dos últimos 4 sorteios, da melhor maneira.)

Although I signed here as HOT, from now on I'll sign

Frank
 

hot4

Member
Brad said:
Thanks Hot4,

interesting results, at first glance they're very similar to mine. I'll take a closer look when I have time.

I know so many calculations ....! :confused:

Isaw a site many moons ago that used the same approach, and used 'trigger draws' (my term, they called it something diff). Looking at what happened say 50,100,200 ... etc. draws ago, one could supposedly find a cycle and thus predict when to apply the system ... haven't found one for BC49, yet. I lost the link to that site ...

Oh, that's the problem. To know which is the time and if the time is ever the same ... till now I think it's very difficult to calculate that. Till then ... :cool:

Frank
 

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