Provincial Oct 2 Discussion

YES IT WAS A TYPO

Brad,

Me too I am still working too on these numbers and might go for AW 10 instead of 9 that way chances increase.

That trigger thing is always associated with best pairs too at least for me.
Example 18 is a trigger now and since 28 is Overdue then I found both of them a good pair ( past history of LD'S 8).
This is how I think most of the times but lately I came to realize that I must include REPEATS in order to salvage money or win more. That's why I am playing repeat finally for the first time but NOT TOGETHER.
 

Brad

Member
re: repeats

I find those tricky myself but feel that they should be incl. Sometimes it may seem that I have too many in my wheels but I try to focus on those that have other pointers as well, not just because they show high on the repeat list.
For example, I'll have 3 reps in 12 picks for this draw but two of them, 39+40, show in oons as well. The stats forecast a 42 and 43% chance for 0 or 1 rep in next draw ... putting 11 in would mean too many, also I'm playing the odds that it will not threepeat.

I'm looking at a CM AW12_45, 4if4, should give me a min. 3 lines if 3 so I'll cover my cost, 4 would be much nicer, 2-->I'm screwed :dizzy:, as I'm over my self imposed $15 ceiling ...

Also I think a decade is going to miss, just can't decide which one ... 01s ?
 
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Spending $30.00 for AW 12 ?

Brad,

Are you spending $30.00 for that one ? or is it $22.50 ?
CM remember is not accurate about %'s and JADE-LOTTERY is better in that aspect.

Yeah repeats are a common occurence in 6/49 and some BC/49.
I have to learn to accept that.
 

Brad

Member
That's a 45 liner - 22.50, 3 hits would cover + a tiny profit is what it should've read. At this stage I'm not overly concerned with CM's reports, have you found all of the guarantees to be wrong or just some?

I just ran a quick 3 hit test on the wheel from 1,2,3 to 2,11,12, so far it checks out ok. Not really up to testing all combos but I might throw some random combos at it and see. How did you test it?
 
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All of them

Brad,

The tests were done long time ago and found out that lines required to fulfill let's say 4/6 in case 6 showed up are wrong.
And it goes on and on with all the guarantees.
How I found this out by comparing % between CM and JL. Found out that 100% for JADE is around 97.5% or so for CM which means if CM says it's 100% , the fact is it's really 97.50%
So after that I did extensive testing and found out CM to be deceptive a bit. so I went to JL and really when it says 100% when you check the Assurance it means it :agree2:
 
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LET ME DO A QUICK TEST FOR AW12

I will tell you exactly how many lines in AW 12 needed to get that 4/5 guarantee ok ? I will be back later with results.
 
WELL WELL

My Friend,

in AW 12 it takes 55 lines to get 3/3 and 170 lines to guarantee 4/4.
It makes sense cause there are 924 lines for the FW.
170 of 924 is like 18%
 

Brad

Member
Hmm, I have another wheel, AW12_42 4if4 guarantee from a diff source. Not sure if I follow your post correctly but AW12 3if3 should be close to 15 lines. That 924 FW is for 6if6, don't forget that each 6 nr line has 20 possible 3 nr combos, or 15 -4 nr combos.
So with 12 nrs there are 220 -3 nr combos, 495 -4nr combos, etc.

It's quite possible that CM 'short changes' ie: 97.5 vs 100% on 6 hits, but the lower guarantes look ok.

Can you take a wheel generated by CM and 'plug it in' to Jade to double check the guarantee ? That would be interesting. I havn't re-downloaded Jade since my crash so I don't know if it's possible.

All this may be a moot point 'cause I have to predict the 3 or 4 first :D .
 
YES IT CAN BE DONE

Brad,

Yes we can transfer CM to Jade but this has to be a manual entry .
Ok I am gonna test CM and find flaws in it like b4 and hopefully I can post all that here i.e. combinations and test done.
 

Brad

Member
Combo,

that sounds like a lot of work, I should really do it myself ... just wanted to know if it's possible .
 
BRAD YOU ARE RIGHT :)

Brado,

Yes CM is correct , 15 lines for 3/3 and 48 lines for 4/4. It looked as if JAde has put too much emphasis on certain combinations and forgot about balanced combos. Remember I said that earlier in Anything Thread. Now I have found the missing link. That was a big flaw in JADE.
One more thing I like now in CM that it deploys some Serotic method which is great :bounce: :dance1:
 
NO NEED FOR JADE

Actually JADE now is a pain in the butt as it's weak in some combos which is dangerous cause if you match 3 out of say 11 there is a big chance we can get $0.00 unless it's an expensive wheel :D

One thing I should say about CM the guarantee 3/3 in 15 lines for AW 12 return is avg $10.00
 

Brad

Member
Thanks Combo,

you know what I like about CM is the Randomize feature. There were times I made a wheel, substituted my picks and found lines with say all odds or too many consecutives, etc. Randomizing can 'fix' that, sometimes I had to 'play' with it for a while but with patience it can be done.

:D ... behind in posting again ...
 
That opens the gate for me

Example :

Now I can play 15 lines to get 4/4 in AW 9 rather than playing 20 lines for JADE. This way I can save the difference and perhaps increase the FW 7 dose :bouncy:
I guess the same goes for AW 10
 
Question Brad

Can I substitute the 1,2 etc etc with the numbers I like in CM or I have to do that somewhere else like Excel
 

Brad

Member
Yes you can

After the wheel is made go to Configure - Own Numbers - Set, type in your nrs - Apply. When done ... Configure - Display, that should get you there, you can save it in files and then check for matches later. Try it, you'll like it :)
 
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I am hungry now for more Combos

Man you have opened the wrong gates for me specially with my Maniac behaviour :lol: exactly like when you give a cookie to the CookieMonster :D
 

Brad

Member
Hey slow down bud :D ,

CM is good for another type of wheels, open ... sometimes I use it to make a full guarantee for 3if3 'cause 4if4 wheel is too costly. But setting the guarantee at say 85 or 90% will reduce the cost substantially ... so the wheel ends up 3if3 100%+4if4 85% which is a lot better than a straight 3if3 and much cheaper to play than a full 4if4. You can play with the % to get what you need or can afford.
 
GOTTA GO NOW

Brad,

Gotta sleep now . Sleep well with SOME NUMERICAL INSPIRATION
I will try my best not to have that nightmarish one when I had :
06-07-08-09-11-15 displayed :D :lol:
 

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