Lotto randomness

[thornc]

If you know italian... the official pages
are SuperEnaloto
and Lotto Game !

The lotto game, I play the Rome wheel from time to time, is bet based you win on how much you bet, so for a 1€ bet you get
11€ if you 1/1 ( if you play 2 and hit one then you get half and so on)
250€ if you get 2/2
4250€ if you get 3/3
80000€ if you get 4/4
1000000€ if you get 5/5.
There a lot of possible combinations, afterwards! You can play up to 10 numbers in a single slip, you choose your bet, which must bet at least 1€ in total you winaccording to your hits and your bets.
For example if you bet 1€, that you hit 2 numbers and play 3 you get 83.33€!

The SuperEnalotto is pari-mutuel! 38% of the betting ammount is alocated to prizes and 20% goes to each of the 5
winning categories 6,5+B,5,4 and 3!
Each wheel draws 5 balls for the lotto
game, so if a number for the Enalotto
is the same as already present, then
the next drawned ball is used! The order of the wheels is alphabetical!

In the end these are very hard games!

 

[Dennis Bassboss]

Interesting quote. To add fuel to the fire, 70% of US PowerBall tickets sold are quick picks, and 70% of the drawings have been won by quick pick tickets.....

On the other hand I like doing the analyses and comparisons.....

Strange...I saw a report that said that 85% of powerball players were using quick picks only????
But even as it is...Again it shows that more quick picks users are losing in every draw...
This of course even when we are not taking good care of the lower prizes winners....
The number of losers using Quick picks would climb sky high!

 

[gsobier]

Denis:

How about this?... ...the only thing for sure,... most do not choose thier numbers and this leaves more money for the ones who do take the time and make an effort. Just another case of getting something out of what one puts into something. There is one catch here which makes or breaks... ...you need to play smart where you need to know what things will work and also knowing what things don't work well is important. There is a very small number of players who really know how to play smart and wise. I'm still learning as I go.

There are times where some draws are unexpected and Quick Pick wins are simply accidental.

Any one who runs a lottery is counting on the ignorance of the general public. To me, Quick Picks is thier big money maker when the jackpots are large.

Regards,
George

Strange...I saw a report that said that 85% of powerball players were using quick picks only????
But even as it is...Again it shows that more quick picks users are losing in every draw...
This of course even when we are not taking good care of the lower prizes winners....
The number of losers using Quick picks would climb sky high!

 

[moaga]

random seems to be what we do not know. There is no way to produce an ideal random machine. The lottory is not luck but simply a challenge. If you are rich and do not care about money you can win at every draw. You just need to spend ca. 14 million per draw and you will always win no matter what machine they use.
In a world where money is king I do not think that the games can be fair. I do strongly believe that they manipulate the draws in order to produce some kind of randowness. But if you are very rich and do not care about money you can always ''win''.

 

[hot4]

random seems to be what we do not know. There is no way to produce an ideal random machine. The lottory is not luck but simply a challenge. If you are rich and do not care about money you can win at every draw. You just need to spend ca. 14 million per draw and you will always win no matter what machine they use.
In a world where money is king I do not think that the games can be fair. I do strongly believe that they manipulate the draws in order to produce some kind of randowness. But if you are very rich and do not care about money you can always ''win''.

We know that spending $14 million usually "looses" while we hit 6 numbers

 

[mirage]

randomness?

Ideal randomness is a mathematically theoretical state which reality can at best only approximate. Some say its a matter of psychological perception. Some people seem predisposed mentally to see patterns, or randomness, depending. It's probably ideological, a matter of faith, to some extent. Does anybody on this board have analysed stats from actual games/winning numbers to correct me? I'm curious.

Even if the jackpot was much more than $14 mil for a 6/49 it would take an enormous and well coordinated effort by many, many people to play all the possible combinations exactly. So it's not a just a matter of how wealthy you are at all.

I believe I remember a very well coordinated and strategized effort was pulled off for one lottery in the United States a few decades back. Many rich people pooled together a lot of money to win something like the Maryland or Delaware state lottery when the jackpot hadn't been won for many draws and had climbed high enough to make it worth the players while. It was an extremely well organized and orchestrated effort and was featured on a TV news show. The players and the chief organizer did manage to pull off the winning ticket amongst their many millions of plays (tickets) but it was a tight race against the clock as they ran into a few practical and mechanical foul ups or snags. Then the players were embroiled in a law suit by the state gaming corporation which was trying to block them from collecting their prize because they had used a method to force a win. It was contrary to the basic principles of the lottery and was therefore viewed by the state as a win gained through unfair practices. The lawsuit took years to resolve but the people involved did get their money in the end. Does anybody else remember this story?

 

[t.lawler]

Interesting quote. To add fuel to the fire, 70% of US PowerBall tickets sold are quick picks, and 70% of the drawings have been won by quick pick tickets.....

On the other hand I like doing the analyses and comparisons.....

go john

I have only been on this forum for a few days.
However I have seen enough of your of you posts to agree with what you are saying.
By the way I had not found the 70-70 info about PowerBall but I always suspected that the quick picks and the bettor choice worked about equally
well.

 

[higgy]

http://econpapers.repec.org/article/eejeeconj/v_3A19_3Ay_3A1993_3Ai_3A2_3Ap_3A157-164.htm

 

[higgy]

A link to a free download on "When Are State Lotteries a Good Bet"
It was in 1993 an Australian consortium tried to buy the Virginia and Florida
state lottery winning tickets.............
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa3620/is_200101/ai_n8950541/pg_1

 

[t.lawler]

quick pick vs picking you own

Interesting quote. To add fuel to the fire, 70% of US PowerBall tickets sold are quick picks, and 70% of the drawings have been won by quick pick tickets.....

On the other hand I like doing the analyses and comparisons.....

Hello johnpp77

I have always suspected that quick pick did just as well as pick you own.
but this is the first time i have seen any stats quoted.
i feel that people find 1,2,3,4,5-6 unbalanced,nonsymetrical or just plain ugly.
but in fact has just as much chance to win as any other MORE balanced bet.

seeya t.lawler

 

[t.lawler]

I was just wondering, if the lotto numbers are really random, how does say OLGC (in Ontario, Canada) manage to get exactly half the profits every year?

hi amiable

Yes lotto numbers are random. However the house(Ontario is abve case)
creates the pay table. an easy example would be a pick 3 lotto.

the odds of picking one 3 digit number are 1::1000.

every pick 3 i have seen only pays 500. so the players get back 50% of all the money bet and the house keeps the other 50%.

I feel that if the numbers were not truly random in a given lotto then that lotto would soon go broke. There a simply too many knowledgable players out there who would soon spot a nonrandom trend.

t.lawler

 

[tomtom]

so the players get back 50% of all the money bet and the house keeps the other 50%.

The only example I found so far where this is like obvious is that lottario game...clearly stated that all prizes altogether make a 50% payout...and most prizes are parimutuel, with % of money that they hold, while JP has a rollover option..not sure how big % takes the lowest prize, though., so therefore not sure which percents take prizes out of money pool - 50% that goes to players.....

 

[tomtom]

The only example I found so far where this is like obvious is that lottario game...clearly stated that all prizes altogether make a 50% payout...and most prizes are parimutuel, with % of money that they hold, while JP has a rollover option..not sure how big % takes the lowest prize, though., so therefore not sure which percents take prizes out of money pool - 50% that goes to players.....

And, it is pretty nice game in my opinion, because I like ball machines games where JP doesn't take huge % of prizes, games with rollovers option, and games where prices for one play aren't expensive ...too bad it is not like offered to more players, so prizes would be much higher...

 

[t.lawler]

The only example I found so far where this is like obvious is that lottario game...clearly stated that all prizes altogether make a 50% payout...and most prizes are parimutuel, with % of money that they hold, while JP has a rollover option..not sure how big % takes the lowest prize, though., so therefore not sure which percents take prizes out of money pool - 50% that goes to players.....

tomtom

well, i did neglect lottos that have paramutuel payouts.
all i am saying is that the house has the edge simply because they determine the payout. the way i understand paramutuel is the house pays out x? of the money bet. I would bet that in a pick 3 lotto the house sets the pay out percentage at close to 50% of the
money bet.

Truly all I am saying is that the house sets the pay out and that is why they get x%.

 

[tomtom]

tomtom

well, i did neglect lottos that have paramutuel payouts.
all i am saying is that the house has the edge simply because they determine the payout. the way i understand paramutuel is the house pays out x? of the money bet. I would bet that in a pick 3 lotto the house sets the pay out percentage at close to 50% of the
money bet.

Truly all I am saying is that the house sets the pay out and that is why they get x%.

Not sure I understand ….you are saying that parimutuel prizes and known exact payout percent in a game is what you don’t like…


well…..

imho... take a good care if going to buy a house, or an apartment because those mortgages % , and interests could be quite different, and I heard most people quite think about of that… or if you are going to take any credit or such…

 

[tomtom]

tomtom

the payout. the way i understand paramutuel is the house pays out x? of the money bet.

got it now, what do you may mean...

it's not that ...parimutuel means prizes in a game like

30% for JP
12% for second prize
15% for third
25 %for fourth
18% for fifth prize

which is 100% out of known total prize payout % of some exact amount of all money in the game in that draw.. so possible winners share those money percents in a prize category, while JP has a rollover if no one possibly wins it in the draw.. ...

Now, how the game is good or not some people look at these %, some may look for something different, and possibly some do not look at all at these %...

From that reason, various games have various numbers of combinations sold, because of how many people may look at what, or do not look at all, or how good is competition among games offered at one place..

 

[johnph77]

Parimutuel payouts remove any and all risks from the jurisdiction operating the lottery, as that jurisdiction is going to keep a cretain percentage of the money no matter what game is played or how much is bet on any particular selection. A peek at the California lottery payout history, particularly the Daily 3 game, should give you a clue on how this works.

 

[tomtom]

Parimutuel payouts remove any and all risks from the jurisdiction operating the lottery

Sure…and also may make quite an uncomplicated and open atmosphere, so regardless of possible players level of knowledge about odds….

It is very easy to see what is about to expect by just looking at previous few results, since all facts are absolutely clear.

After becoming interested in lottery odds, I was a thinking that if I was a bad guy, the very idea that might possibly work in getting extremely rich in a shortest possible amount of time might be opening at where it is doable, while respecting all laws, an online site that highly takes advantage of people’s basic uncertainty of odds, while having a games like :
nice computer - animated ball machine in a game where payout would be $1000 for a $1 bet in
matching 2 out of 2 in 2 out of 2 out of 99 game, and the whole $10000 for matching 3 out of 3 in a 3 out of 3out of 99 game. For as little as $1

And, making extremely high profits might be as easy as someone pushes the computer button, since there is everything basic for it – low bet, high looking prizes, and something that looks like a ball machine…and only someone familiar with odds might see how the game would be a pure rip off actually…

So, since my ethical standards prohibits such action, and any possible way of taking advantage of people, and also because of any flaws if any, so unfamiliarity about facts of odds or possible greediness, nor taking advantage of people by any means, I could only be happy since learned about odds, and could see what is any possible game about in a very short time…

And, I like every open way of parimutuel gambling, and especially where there is quite enough choices and all games are same high quality, so someone could easy choose an exact preferred odds if interested in , while the generally payout in a game is very good. And from that reason I was excited after finding how at some places players could have really good payouts and quite many high quality choices among games, like Australian ball machines lottery games, after not much searching about games around the globe…

 

[t.lawler]

Parimutuel payouts remove any and all risks from the jurisdiction operating the lottery, as that jurisdiction is going to keep a cretain percentage of the money no matter what game is played or how much is bet on any particular selection. A peek at the California lottery payout history, particularly the Daily 3 game, should give you a clue on how this works.

thanks john
this as clear as it gets.

 

[johnph77]

got it now, what do you may mean...

it's not that ...parimutuel means prizes in a game like

30% for JP
12% for second prize
15% for third
25 %for fourth
18% for fifth prize

which is 100% out of known total prize payout % of some exact amount of all money in the game in that draw.. so possible winners share those money percents in a prize category, while JP has a rollover if no one possibly wins it in the draw.. ...

Now, how the game is good or not some people look at these %, some may look for something different, and possibly some do not look at all at these %...

From that reason, various games have various numbers of combinations sold, because of how many people may look at what, or do not look at all, or how good is competition among games offered at one place..

In a parimutuel game of this nature this is the breakdown.

For the sake of simplicity, let's assume that the game payout percentage is 50% and the total amount bet on this game is $200. The house will keep $100. $30 will go into the jackpot prize pool, whether it is won or not. $12 will go into the second level prize pool, to be divided amongst all winners at that level - regardless of how many winners there are at that level. $15 will go into the third level prize pool, to be divided amongst all winners at that level. And that continues down the prize list. If and when the jackpot is won, whether there is one winner or multiple winners, whether there has been a rollover or not, then entire prize fund dedicated to that level is paid. If there is more than one winner, the fund is divided equally amongst them.