Lotto randomness

aimable

Member
I was just wondering, if the lotto numbers are really random, how does say OLGC (in Ontario, Canada) manage to get exactly half the profits every year?

powerball

Member
The lottery corporations gives only 45-50% in prizes and keeps the rest. So there is no way they can lose money as they keep at least 50¢ of every dollar you pay.

Sheba

Member
Yet ALC Claims to have lost money last year!

Sheba...

powerball

Member
Actually, the ALC made \$397 million in profits last year. They only returned \$327 million in prizes, which is a payout of only 45%. The Ontario LGC paid out 50% of revenues in prizes.

aimable

Member
Thanks Nick

Nick,

Thanks a lot for that link. It surely helped me understand why the lotto randomness on the surface may not appear to be random.

Cheers,
Aimable

powerball

Member
Another excellent article that addicted gamblers need to read is at http://www.camh.net/egambling/issue2/research :

The human mind is not very good at dealing with randomness. Our minds are designed to find order, not to appreciate chaos. Ever notice how easy it is to find faces in clouds? We are wired to look for patterns and find connections, and when we find patterns we interpret them as real. Consequently, many people will see patterns in random numbers. When people see patterns in randomness (e.g., repeated numbers, apparent sequences or winning streaks) they may believe that the numbers aren’t truly random, and therefore, can be predicted.

Many gamblers have experienced a wave-like roller coaster effect of wins and losses and may believe that you just have to ride out the down slope of the wave to follow the wave back up. Much of this learning process takes place unconsciously. The problem is that betting based on these patterns sometimes appears to work in the short term, reinforcing the belief. But it will not work in the long term; these patterns are flukes.

GillesD

Member
Randomness

Powerball

Certainly one of the most interesting quote to be posted here in a long time. You will most likely get quite a few post arguing about this but I have to agree 100% with what is written.

gsobier

Member
Re: Randomness

GillesD:

I copied the first part of the conclusions from the article posted from above.

The part I made bold and underlined below makes complete sense... ...the reason I feel this is true comes from common sense where I'd expect favorite numbers and patterns could be influenced by subconscious tendencies. Some of these programs developed when done properly do help players to get away from this trap... ...on the other hand, there is the arguement some will pick a condition or set a trap to catch an event which is felt to occur by anticipating it based on the theory, events happen again and again once they have been identified. Boy, what a can of worms here.

Regards,
George
"The whole concept of randomness is a delicate one, and one about which considerable research has been done, particularly in the field of psychology. Reichenbach (1949) claimed that humans are unable to produce a random sequence of responses, even when explicitly asked to do so, and considerable research since then (including our work) generally supports this. Many teachers/lecturers have told us of classroom activities they use to get students thinking about randomness, and Green (1997) gives an interesting account of an experiment on recognizing randomness."

GillesD said:
Powerball

Certainly one of the most interesting quote to be posted here in a long time. You will most likely get quite a few post arguing about this but I have to agree 100% with what is written.

Dennis Bassboss

Member
powerball said:
Another excellent article that addicted gamblers need to read is at http://www.camh.net/egambling/issue2/research :

The human mind is not very good at dealing with randomness. Our minds are designed to find order, not to appreciate chaos. Ever notice how easy it is to find faces in clouds? We are wired to look for patterns and find connections, and when we find patterns we interpret them as real. Consequently, many people will see patterns in random numbers. When people see patterns in randomness (e.g., repeated numbers, apparent sequences or winning streaks) they may believe that the numbers aren’t truly random, and therefore, can be predicted.

Many gamblers have experienced a wave-like roller coaster effect of wins and losses and may believe that you just have to ride out the down slope of the wave to follow the wave back up. Much of this learning process takes place unconsciously. The problem is that betting based on these patterns sometimes appears to work in the short term, reinforcing the belief. But it will not work in the long term; these patterns are flukes.
A lot of overgeneralisations without giving up facts here in that post....Seems like hear-says to me...
For the short term I have my ways and for the long term I have the dancing set ....
I have never argued that the numbers were drawn at ramdom....But like I said the more ramdom they'll be...The more for me it is going to become easy to predict them!
I am counting on ramdomness in order to predict them...
Without ramdomness the announcer theory wouldn't work...
Flukes??? I will do it again....
But at this point \$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$ I don't care about hear-say anymore I look at the facts...
And when I check on my bank account for lotto from lotto wins the only facts I see is this\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$

gsobier

Member
Denis:

Couldn't agree with you more... ...those who write reports like this will never win with that attitude and leave more for us.

I'd let them think like they do, not my problem. You did remind me of something I'm sure you know all too well... ...how many times does someone lost in the woods with no experience end up going in circles... ...its the same thing trying to pick random numbers... ...you'd eventually get confused and before you know it, patterns will start to show.

Regards,
George
Dennis Bassboss said:
A lot of overgeneralisations without giving up facts here in that post....Seems like hear-says to me...
For the short term I have my ways and for the long term I have the dancing set ....
I have never argued that the numbers were drawn at ramdom....But like I said the more ramdom they'll be...The more for me it is going to become easy to predict them!
I am counting on ramdomness in order to predict them...
Without ramdomness the announcer theory wouldn't work...
Flukes??? I will do it again....
But at this point \$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$ I don't care about hear-say anymore I look at the facts...
And when I check on my bank account for lotto from lotto wins the only facts I see his this\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$

Dennis Bassboss

Member
powerball said:
Another excellent article that addicted gamblers need to read is at http://www.camh.net/egambling/issue2/research :

The human mind is not very good at dealing with randomness. Our minds are designed to find order, not to appreciate chaos. Ever notice how easy it is to find faces in clouds? We are wired to look for patterns and find connections, and when we find patterns we interpret them as real. Consequently, many people will see patterns in random numbers. When people see patterns in randomness (e.g., repeated numbers, apparent sequences or winning streaks) they may believe that the numbers aren’t truly random, and therefore, can be predicted.

Many gamblers have experienced a wave-like roller coaster effect of wins and losses and may believe that you just have to ride out the down slope of the wave to follow the wave back up. Much of this learning process takes place unconsciously. The problem is that betting based on these patterns sometimes appears to work in the short term, reinforcing the belief. But it will not work in the long term; these patterns are flukes.
But I agree 100% with that text (and link)that is stating that basically it is not good to play quick picks....Only luck or ''flukes'' can make you win with these...
Nobody on earth has the same DNA ...besides twins...An error in ramdomness...??? And there are many twins (repeaters)in many lotto to this date if not all...And there is always going to be that way otherwise it wouldn't be ramdom...
This reminds me of a guy once talking about the U.F.O. phenomenom...another very religious person started to give up these arguments trying to prove that it doesn't exist...
1- We never saw one before
2- The distance involved to and from another world is too far...
3- There's no water outside of earth...Therefore no life..
4- It's only in people imagination....
The first guy said ...''Then why do you believe in god???''
My point is that I can use these same arguments you are using to go into another direction....Prove to me that I can't hit...

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Sheba

Member
Dennis Bassboss said:
But I agree 100% with that text (and link)that is stating that basically it is not good to play quick picks....Only luck or ''flukes'' can make you win with these...

I always play an insta pik as my back-up plan as sometimes or should i say most times my piks are and one of these days my insta pik might be flukey and win me something...

Sheba__ ~~~
\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$
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Dennis Bassboss

Member
Sheba said:
I always play an insta pik as my back-up plan as sometimes or should i say most times my piks are and one of these days my insta pik might be flukey and win me something...

Sheba__ ~~~
\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$\$
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It is your right to do so....

johnph77

Member
Interesting quote. To add fuel to the fire, 70% of US PowerBall tickets sold are quick picks, and 70% of the drawings have been won by quick pick tickets.....

On the other hand I like doing the analyses and comparisons.....

thornc

Member
johnph77 said:
On the other hand I like doing the analyses and comparisons.....

Same here....

humans are unable to produce a random sequence of responses

And this is what gaves me hope!

Nothing human created can be random!
Even the so called random number generators of computers are pseudorandom (they are getting better!).

In the end we all now it's close to impossible to win against 1:14M (or 1:600M in my case) odds...
close but not impossible, and we have always the other prize categories... I would be glad to win a few 4/6 in SuperEnalotto, not to mention the 5/6!

BTW, johnph77 do you think you can calculate the overall odds for the 6+/90 and 5/90 games?? Thanks in advance.

johnph77

Member
Thornc -

I'm working off laptop right now - desktop is working on 6/100 for frequency page, and that's where that software resides - will post tomorrow. BTW, I'm guessing you mean 6+Bonus/90? As in Enalotto? Will take less than 5 minutes to calculate and post - np. On my To Do list.

johnph77

Member
5/90

Hit 5 - 1 possibility, odds - 1::43,949,268.00
Hit 4 - 425 possibilities, odds - 1::103,410.04
Hit 3 - 357,000 possibilities, odds - 1::1,231.07
Hit 2 - 987,700 possibilities, odds - 1::44.50
Hit 1 - 10,123,925 possibilities, odds - 1::4.34
Hit 0 - 32,801,517 possibilities, odds - 1::1.34

Total possibilities - 43,949,268

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

6/90 With Bonus

Hit 6 - 1 possibility, odds - 1::622,614,630.00
Hit 5 + Bonus - 6 possibilities, odds - 1::103,769,105.00
Hit 5 - 498 possibilities, odds - 1::1,250,230.18
Hit 4 + Bonus - 1,245 possibilities, odds - 1::500,092.07
Hit 4 - 51,045 possibilities, odds - 1::12,197.37
Hit 3 + Bonus - 68,060 possibilities, odds - 1::9,148.03
Hit 3 - 1,837,620 possibilities, odds - 1::338.82
Hit 2 + Bonus - 1,378,215 possibilities, odds - 1::451.75
Hit 2 - 27,564,300 possibilities, odds - 1::22.59
Hit 1 + Bonus - 11,025,720 possibilities, odds - 1::56.47
Hit 1 - 174,206,376 possibilities, odds - 1::3.57
Hit 0 + Bonus - 29,034,396 possibilities, odds - 1::21.44
Hit 0 - 377,447,148 possibilities, odds - 1::1.65

Total possibilities - 622,614,630

gl

thornc

Member
Thanks for the info! Perhaps you can add it to your great website!

Yes, The Italian SuperEnalotto is a 6+Bonus/90 game, but the numbers come from 7 diferrent wheels from around the country! These wheels have another game called "The Lotto Game" (GiocoDelLotto), and each is a 5/90 game!!

Btw, do you have a general formula for this?

johnph77

Member
thornc -

Generally, what's posted on my site is aimed more toward the display of an overall payout percentage for the game rather than expressing the formulas used for computations. I'm gathering most of the payouts of the games in Italy are pari-mutuel and, if so, I'd state that if and when the game(s) was(were) posted. But, without game-specific information, they won't find their way onto the page. If there is a site from which I can obtain this information, please let me know. But the entry of new and updated information is sadly lagging, what with all the other work I'm doing.

I'm curious to know how SuperEnaLotto avoids duplicate numbers when the numbers come from 7 different sources and how they determine which lotto comprises the "bonus ball".

For the generation of the formulas used in 6 + bonus ball games, see the chart on my site:

http://www.johnph77.com/math/stlot.html#tsmb

The formula simply adds divisors to the standard hit formula to separate the bonus ball possibilities from the non-bonus ball possibilities. The reason for the runaround is that I didn't use the COMBIN function when setting up the calculation spreadsheet, and, since it works, I see no reason to change it.

Hope this helps.

gl

john