Historical Stats???

[TroyT]

Scientific & Mathematical formulae

Any ideas on "typical" scientific & mathematical formulae used in predictions?

I've been reading up a bit on the theory of chaos etc.... and wondering how I could relate this to historical statistics from a particular lottery game. (any physicists or math professors out there???)

ND: I came across one site where a guy was selling excel spreadsheets for lottery predictions!... If I can back-track my surfin' I'll let you know! (think about yours.. maybe there'll be some income potential if your spreadsheet works!?)

I'm still brainstormin here! LOL

Troy

 

[NmbrsDude]

Troy,

To clarify, I use MS Excel but definitely more than one spreadsheet. The issue is wether or not to build macros or some kind of intelligent replication of the process I go through, using the information in the spreadsheets, to come up with my predictions. Since I'm still honing the process which means it can change every few weeks, I continue to do it "manually", for lack of a better term.
You bring up an intesting point that I pondered way back and that probably got me started in this game - are there indeed any math or chaos theories that can be applied to this. There is a guy who's site I hit about 6 months ago known as Dr. Anselm. He plays the UK national 6/49 but had an interesting take on how to predict the numbers. Nothing too deep, mind you, but still worth a look. I don't have the URL but I'm certain you could find it with a search on Anselm / UK lottery or something to that effect. Let me know if you can't find it and maybe I can try my hand at it.
I also read an article in Forbes about a Brit named Stephen Wolfram who actually was the originator of chaos math. He's apparently bringing out a book soon which may shed some light on what we're doing. I know he also has a web site but this stuff is pretty heavy so put your mathematician hat on before hitting that one. I haven't quite figured out if his theories will be helpful to people like us but I'm waiting for the book because, based on what I've read about him, there may be a connection.

Happy surfing!

 

[Dennis Bassboss]

I am a math teacher...the only reliable theory that you can find is well in french we call it"La loi des grands nombres" I don't know how to translate that into English
but what it says is this ...after numerous draws (lots and lots of draws) the total time each numbers are drawn should be close to equal, if not somebody is tricking the dices....

Now there is two ways to approach the draws
1- Long term
2- Short term

In the long term any given number in a normal distribution of numbers should come up as many times as any other only the order should be different from a couple of thousand draws compare to another couple of thousand draws..so from there on if we look at the core of draws (lets take the sums here) if you filter your set of numbers and play right in the hot zone ( where there is the most hits) you should hit after many,many draws ....but it could take for ever to hit decently....

In the short term the datas are less reliables to a certain point because we are at the merci of the first reality...but we can nevertheless track some constent variables...the hot and cold numbers are just that....the odd and even...hit and skip...and so on....but we need more than just that to achieve success because there are too many hot numbers or cold numbers all put together...this is where the sums and the announced numbers can help...by taking only the announced numbers in the last 27 draws from a pool of 30 to 40 numbers only twice less than 3 numbers came up...it is excellent to start picking our numbers but again if we take only the best announced numbers in our set and if we do not look at other criterias we do not gain substancial chances of often capturing all the numbers simply because in order to do it frequently we have to somehow shrink that large pool of numbers whithout giving up the essence of that set.
I have all kinds of stuff build up in excell too and even in visual basic homemade programs but the interpretation of the stats are always more important than the stats themselves.
Here on this board we are mostly looking at the short term predictions game and this is the trickiest one no doubts about it!
So stop looking for that secret formula ...it just doesn't exist...
One thing that stands out is the fact that history has a strong tendancy to partially repeats itself time and time again...so by looking at what comes with what before you can on some occasions have many good numbers in your set...and you will have much more if you apply other theories to it.
The grouping of numbers is another thing that I'm not going to get in in this post but history shows the way.The LD theory is also another asset to fully consider when picking up numbers...the same thing for consecutives and repeaters from a previous draw...there are some trends out there I have notice and gain on knowing them...I know one that announces a high draw and I also know one that announces a triple LD...I also know one that tells me that a number from a pair of consecutives will repeat....I have predicted them quite a few times it is all there but we have to dig in order to find them!
As for the wheels to play ....There is a lot of good ones out there too but my favourite is the 10 numbers 5/5 in 30 lines of course I'm adding a DN ....but don't worry my DN rarely miss target and even if it did I still have a 4/4 garranty in the rest of my wheel.
Hope it helps! By the way I will hit in the next folks!

 

[TroyT]

Non-Existence Exists! - Zen parable

Thanks ND and DB for those posts.

I'll try to check out that reference on Dr.Anslem.. if anything it'll will help fill in the space between my ears! LOL

I find the chaos theory very interesting, so in any case I will be looking for more info., in addition to that, I've also been wondering about fractals!

Maybe my brain's gone AWOL while getting into this lottery stuff!


DB: What's "LD" and "DN" you refer to in your post???

Troy
The Non-Existence Exists! - Zen Parable

 

[Dennis Bassboss]

LD are last digits numbers like 05-15-25-35-45
DN stands for Designated numbers it is a number you put in your wheel on every single line! If it does not come up it is impossible to have 6 good numbers in such a wheel!
Hope it helps!

I'm also known as the Zen Master by some lottery players so I find it funny that you talk about a Zen parable in your post!

 

[TroyT]

Dr.Anslem

Did a search on google and surfed straight to a page all about this guy and his system/theory, etc... very interesting.. I especially liked the page showing grahical information and the "challenge" asking viewers to predict the charts' movements based on the patterns that have been created by past draws...
seems somehow easier to see things in "picture form" LOL

DB, I don't quite follow you on the DN thang!... do you mean to say that on every single line in a wheel, there appears a "DN" (the DN being the same number on every line)?

Troy "Now and Zen"

 

[NmbrsDude]

Troy,

Glad you enjoyed Dr Anselm's theory. I found it to be an interesting approach but, after some experimentation, I felt it was a little too subjective to yield consistent results. Of course, that's not to say that the odd time you might not get a 5 or 6/6 hit out of however many you choose to pool but those instances may be few and far between. Nonetheless, I always find it healthy to check out other theories in hopes that one may learn something that one can use in their own system.
As to Dennis's DN thing, it seems that, depending on the way your predictions pan out on average, if you can at least be sure that your top pick will usually be correct, logic suggests to put that one number on all of your tickets and hope that at least 2 other numbers will land on the odd ticket to produce a small win. Even if you bought 30 tickets, with Canada's 6/49 you only need to get 3 lines with 3 winning numbers to break even on that draw.
I guess it boils down to the simple tenet in systematic lottery play: you have to have a fairly good number pool and you must play an appropriate wheel to maximize your winnings. Unfortunately for some, I noticed that they concentrate more on the wheeling and forget that even if you have a supposedly great 100 line wheel, if you pick 10 non-winning numbers to put in that wheel you'll still win nothing. This goes back to my earlier point about finding how small a pool you can get away with in your system to still get those 4 and 5/6 hits and then buying an affordable wheel to maximize those possibilities.
I used to play a 20 number wheel with 50 or so lines but I found that even when I got 5 out of 20, I rarely made more that $100 on that draw because the odds of getting the 5 winners on one line are still very poor. Over time, I never won back more that 35% of my money. That's why I've opted for the 10 in 50 lines wheel I mentioned earlier. It seems to be paying off a lot better but I've only been playing that one a short while so we'll have to see how it does in the longer term.
Sorry about the long message but I hope it's helpful.

Alway a pleasure...

btw: nice "Plant" at the end of your last post...

 

[Dennis Bassboss]

When you hit for 5 in these wheels you can literally play for free for quite a long time....this is what I'm doing!

 

[TroyT]

change or not to change

Once again, thanks guys. All and any information is USEFUL information: I'm pretty sure there are quite a few others here, that have/are/will read this thread, that are in the same "Boat" as me, i.e. newbie!

Question of the moment:

Do you guys make your own wheeling patterns, and if so what criteria is most important for you in creating your wheel? (e.g. number of lines you want to play as opposed to say, the number of 3/6 winners)

The only reason I ask is that I have also downloaded the JADE program that creates wheeling patterns - and from what I understand of this program is that these patterns are "symetrical" (or at least that is the objective).

Using the trial version of windows lottopro2000, and checking the wheel pattern given (read: recommended) there are differences in the number distribution to that of JADE's.

L8R,
Troy "Now and Zen"

 

[NmbrsDude]

Troy,

The funny thing about wheeling is that it's really a form of math. "Symmetrical" wheels, as you call them, also known as balanced wheels, can be the one for you if you aren't able to prioritize the numbers in your pool in a consistent fashion. The problem is, if you choose a wheel with a total number of slots that is not wholly divisible by the amount of numbers in your pool. An example of this is if you want to use 12 numbers and wheel them into 15 lines. In 15 lines you have 90 slots to fill but that means each number would have to show 7.5 times. Luckily, there are plenty of ways to make it fit so you just need to find one that works for you.
If you find however that you are able to prioritize your picks and consistently get say, 1 winning number out of the top 3, every time, then you may want to take this into account. That's when the DN thing Dennis was talking about may be useful to you. There are wheels known as front loaded which means your top picks show up more often that the other numbers. If you checked out Lotto-Logix, which I mentioned the other day, you will find front loaded wheels there.
It can get even more complex if you want to take things like decades, sequential numbers, evens and odds, and a few other things which I forget at the moment. Lotto Genius provides a wheeling feature which will build you custom wheels based on certain guarantees, which you choose, and about a dozen other factors as mentioned above. Because of the intricacies involved, if you put all these factors into play, it is very difficult to build a balanced wheel based on this approach.
The bottom line, in my opinion, is to go back and look at your prediction history and get a feel for whether or not you are able to prioritize your picks, first of all, and then pick a wheel based on what you find. If you need help with specifics, I'm sure others on this BB can be of assistance as well as myself. Keep in mind that the above is my take on this stuff and that others here may have a different approach.

Good luck tonight...
ND

 

[TroyT]

Loud and clear!

Great explanation ND, thanx.

As for my games this week.. I'm still trying to digest all of the information, programs etc... I can't remember how, but I picked out a group of numbers from camparing different programs - I chose 9 numbers( don't ask me why I chose 9 numbers - I don't know! LOL) and "sort of" wheeled them in to 9 lines... and on both days, mon and tue.. 2 from my nine came up.. although I didn't get 3 (a minimum "prize").. it still gave me an adrenalin rush! (Little things please little people so the saying goes!)


Also:

I read somewhere earlier, on the net, that data older than 2 years might not really be "correct", or rather "true" because in "general" the machines and balls used get changed.

If this is correct.. you can imagine how I feel... I've been pumping in historical data in to "lotto analyzer" from 1987.. and I've only got up to 1992 so far!


L8R
Troy "Now and Zen"

 

[NmbrsDude]

Troy,

Hey, 2 out of 9 is not bad considering statistically you should only be able to average about 1 if you chose random numbers. Maybe 9 is a little to small a pool though; you may want to bump it up to 12 or so because you can still buy some decent wheels for that. If you find yourself getting that 3rd number it may be worth the extra few bucks.

Keep it up!!

 

[TroyT]

2+1 last night!

OK ND... I'm still "Playing around" with all this new stuff, and I guess I'll spend atleast another week or so just checking the results to the forecasts.. also I want to gat all the historical data in before I "give it a go".

Btw: I got 3 numbers from my nine last night!... actually it's really 2 + bonus ball.. but "looking good, feelin'great!" - maybe just beginner's luck (I wonder if that would include a 6/6 LOL)

Later guys!
Troy

 

[Dennis Bassboss]

Yesterday it was 02 out of 04 if you played the repeat consecutives.....lol..lol..lol..

 

[TroyT]

repeat consecutives?

Hey DB say whats that? repeat consecutives??

I have to confess.. I haven't kept the same 9 numbers each day... the first day when 2 numbers came up, I took those out the next day... but since then I've only replaced one number...

Is this a cardinal sin in lottery play?


Btw: In tonights game (where the "stake" is higher").. I got absolutely nothing, BUT the number I chose were "shadows" (?) to those that came out (e.g I chose 5, 6 appeared )

Later,
Troy "Now and Zen"