Historical Stats???

TroyT

Member
Hey y'all,

Something that's "bugging me" is the use of "Historical" information, especially when trying to choose "hot" and "cold" numbers (In my case, everything just seems "warm/tepid!" LOL)

What are your' opinions on using historical stats (How far back do you go: A few weeks' stats, or the whole history of the draw that you're playing?)

ALso, any recomendations for good programs/software (preferable freeware! LOL)???

Speak to you soon.

Troy
 

LT

Administrator
Hi Troy,

"warm/tepid!" ... I know what you mean :)
Re the database history. Analysis of the whole history (in a mature lottery) provides some good global info. Here is an example in the area of hot numbers. When the Canadian 649 draw history is analysised it will show that number 31 is the most frequently drawn number ... always has been and probably always will be. Don't ask me why it just is :) Therefore when your short term analysis indicated a 31 due play it for sure based upon its overall performance. For your regular hot cold ... tepid results always use a much shorter draw history. Some experts and software developers swear that a 50 draw cut off is best others 100 and others shorter. Some where between 15 and 100 is best. It requires a ton of "what if tests". Just a couple of other thoughts. In a 649 lottery all numbers in a perfect world should show up within approx 25 draws so the absent ones are asleep and the frequent one mat be in a hitting trend. Re cold numbers .. just because its cold it may not be "due". Dueness of numbers only works with a Pick 3 daily lottery.
For free lotto software you can check out the download link and database that Dennis has provided to us at:
http://216.118.112.150/forums/showthread.php?threadid=105
http://www.lottotutor.com/downloads/lottodata.zip

Hope this helps,
LT
 

TroyT

Member
Getting less "tepid" :)

Thanks LT for the information!

As for the use of historical data and limiting it to within the last 50-100 draws... er... I still can't grasp the theory behind this!

Given an extremely comprehensive history of certain statistics, surely "trend" patterns would be far more reliable in "predictions" (e.g. applying the "chaos theory"???).

I don't know LOL But I'm having fun!

Later.

TT
 

TroyT

Member
HOT & COLD

Just wanted to ask if anyone out there who use programs(software)..

1) What program/software do you use?

2) Why?

3) If you use more than one program.. when you look for Hot and Cold numbers, in theory (I'm only "supposin'"), if you use the same "criteria/parameters" in each program for the same Draw, shouldn't all the programs give you the same result????

Thanks!

Troy
P.S. Still "tepid" here!
 

LT

Administrator
Hi TroyT

re trends patterns - some lotto softwares like versabet and lottery boss pro use the whole database to search for recurring themes or sets in predictive anticipation of a similar set occurring but most analysis exercises are done with a short draw history base to capture numbers on the "what is hot is hot" theory. For a really good example of how locking into a hot trend works see Picard's number pool cash in on these dates!
http://lottotutor.com/649tables/picard.html

and you are correct re the softwares .. assuming the same setting all the programs produce the same set of hot cold etc ;)

LT
 

TroyT

Member
Thanx LT, but.. more questions!

Thank you LT for your reply... BUT I still got more questions!

I've seen a couple of posts here, saying that some people "keep" their numbers going for over a certain number of weeks, without changing any.... WHY?

Presumably, as each consecutive draw passes, the stats would change some of those "chosen numbers' possibilities" (e.g. a number might become "Hot" or "not-so-hot")?????

Am I making sense here?

Thanks
Troy
 

LT

Administrator
Hi TroyT,

Your are right that the stats would change the chosen numbers after even one draw. But not by much. I used to analyis the database using my system after each draw to generate the top 20. The numbers would change by a few but basically remain the same group. The group or pool as a whole would change or evolve over time. Many lottery experts and sources like lotto edge magazine have always said "play your set for up to 10 draws". This is because we are up against humungous odds and even if we come up with a sucessful prediction pool we can't be assured that the numbers will hit in "exactly" the very next draw. We are looking for a trend to appear in the near future of the next several draws. As I mentioned earlier about Picard's set. His pool of the same numbers captures three sets of 5 (one including the bonus number) over 10 draws. That's how wonderful it works when you lock into an upcomming trend :)

LT
 

TroyT

Member
Top 20 (?)

Thanks LT,

Another question (again!:D )... From your experience, or any other sources, how many numbers do you choose for your "pool"? assuming that the pool of numbers will be "wheeled" (selectively, or abreviated, not full)... and have you any "wheeling tips"?


I guess the ultimate "razón d'être" in pool numbers and wheeling would be one's economic posibilities!?!?!?


L8r ;)

Troy
 

NmbrsDude

Member
Troy,

I'll give you my 2¢ worth on that...
After much experimentation, I've settled on trying to get 4 or 5 winning numbers out of 10 once every 10 draws or so. I'm playing a 5 if 5 guarantee wheel with 10 numbers on 50 lines. I run a pool so this is more affordable. I got the wheel from Lotto Genius but I'm sure others have it as well.
The beauty of this wheel is that even when you only get 3 out of 10 right, you get a minimum of 7 $10 winners. When you get 4 out of 10, the minimum becomes 3 4-number winners and 16 3-number winners. The real clincher is when you match 5 of 10 because the minimum then becomes 1 5-number winner, 10 4-number winners and 28 3-numbers winners. You only need to get one of those every 30 draws or so break even on average.
I know reducing your pool to 10 may be difficult but there are plenty of other good wheels for 11-15 numbers in less that 60 lines that can make you money (again, check out Lotto Genius or others). I find going much higher than that brings more frequent wins but you hardly ever win back more that 35% of your money on average.
Hope this helps. Let me know if you need more details.

:)
 

TroyT

Member
Thanx NmbrsDude!

That's great information, really apreciated!

I'm still "Playin'around" with the couple of programs I downloaded (still on trial and yet to be registered!), pumping in the numbers, and generally seeing if I can make "head or tail" of it all! LOL

I'll see if I "take the plunge" and make a commitment to wheel some numbers!
I hear you about reducing my pool to 10 numbers, that's not so much as the difficult part, for me the difficult part is deciding on how many lines/tickets I can risk and for how many games!

As far as "wheels" are concerned I've found quite a few (links from here, etc.. ), but I'd really apreciate some more!

Just to let you know I'm based in Spain. Here there is a 6/49 lottery game everyday - 3 types: 1st game, low cost, runs on mon, tue, wed & fri: 2nd game, double the cost of the 1st, runs on thu & sat: 3rd game, triple the cost of the 2nd, runs only on sun.

L8r,
Troy
 

NmbrsDude

Member
Troy,

If you're trying to decide how much you can afford to risk on a consistent basis to at least come close to breaking even, you should run a simple cost analysis.
For example, say you're going to reduce your "pool" to 10 numbers. First, look at your past performance in terms of how many times you get 3, 4, 5, or even 6 numbers right out 10. It's best to look at a large enough sample to get a better idea of the long term risk involved - say 50 draws. Then, pick a few different sized wheels off the web and see how you would have done had you used them. It's easier if you find wheels that actually specify what the minimum expected results are - this is what I like about Lotto Genius. You should be able to tell fairly easily, and be conservative by calculating only the minimum wins achievable, what you can afford to bet consistently without blowing your budget.
As for other wheeling resources, there's a huge list of them available but here are a few I particularly like. For the record, I don't own any of these nor am I affiliated with them:

LotoLuk - www.lotoluk.com - I think this site is actually in Spanish and English

La Coleccion - www.iespana.es/lotored

Lotto Genius - www.lottogenius.com This site has an annual subscription fee of about $10US but I've found some of my best wheels there

Lotto-Logix - www.lotto-logix.com This site has links to a whole set of other wheeling sites which you may find interesting

As always, I'm pleased to impart what little tricks I may have discovered. Let me know if you need more.

Keep on fightin':)
 

TroyT

Member
Thanx ND

I'll take look at those links and see what I can find!

Btw: do you use any program in particular?

Troy
 

NmbrsDude

Member
Troy,

The only program I use to pick my numbers is MS Excel.
I hope you find something of use at those sites. Feel free to ask if you have questions about what you find.

All the best...:cool:
 

TroyT

Member
Programs/Software

Hey ND,
MSExcel?? That's interesting: When the UK lottery came out, I set up a basic spreadsheet listing the numbers that came out (by request from my parents!).. and following that just using the "auto" funcions of "listing" the most frequent, graphs, etc.. But I haven't done anymore to create and "filters"/"conditions" (sum of numbers,etc, etc..).

As for the programs that I'm "trying out":

WinLotto Pro 2000
Looks good (interface, etc.), seems quite logical and straightforward to use. I've spent some time pumping in the numbers after creating three "drawing files" for those that are played here in Spain, with data for atleast 100 draws for each.

One thing I noticed is I wanted to create three separate drawing files under the country "spain". Everytime I opened up "new file" the only thing it did was to edit the previous file (i.e. I can only have one type of 6/49 draw, and as I mentioned earlier there are three types.... very frustrating!)... perhaps the "registered" version would allow me to do this (?)

Loto Analyzer
Interface isn't as attractive as winlotto pro - looks like good ol' QBasic!
But it's FREE!
Again, only seems to be able to support one type of drawing file :(

I don't know much about other progs... the few others that I've installed - tried-unistalled, have no real possibilty to really "try" the program and see what it does - they say what they can do, but that's a different story!

The "Bottom line" I guess that either I register (read "pay") for one, go with it, and complain to the tech support about what the thing can't do, when I want it to!

"keep on fighting... difficult to get to super-heavyweight when I'm not even at fly-weight......... yet!" :p
 

TroyT

Member
Hey ALL!

I forgot to mention earlier: With regard to using the FREE program Loto Analyzer....

First I input the data for the last 30 draws or so, to "have a look" at what the program does.. then I decided to input more historical data, so that I had atleast 100 draws.... the program didn't "re-sort" the information in to chronologically date order! (atleast in the version that I downloaded, it didn't)

Guess I just have to delete the info, and start again by making sure that draw #1 in the program is actually the first one from where I want my historical data to begin.

Troy
 

NmbrsDude

Member
Troy,

Don't worry about "weight" since, like many things in life, it's mostly an illusion (the old "legends in their own minds" thing). Just have fun with this game because that's all it really is - it just so happens that some of us like to play with numbers more than the average Joe.
By the way, the reason I use MS Excel, in combination with my own wits of course, is specifically because I refuse to pay for some other person's rigid concept which may not work any better than mine in the end. What's more, if my system gets to the level of performance I'm aiming for, I'll probably work on automating it just to save time but I doubt I'll sell it.
Either way, BB's like this are great places to exchange concepts and gain new insights which hopefully heigthen your enjoyment. I've picked up some good tips being around here for just a short while. Just keep asking and, hopefully, those who know will reply.

Glad to be of assistance...:cool:
 

TroyT

Member
Just 4 fun!

The good thing about one of the lottery games here in Spain is that the stakes are relatively low - ok, so the winnings reflect that too- but when there is a "roll-over" it gets the adrenalin going! (tonight's roll over is estimated at 3m euros for one winner of 6/49)!LOL (one column of six numbers costs €0.45 (euros).. sorry don't know that in dollars!).. So eventually, when I get all the historical data pumped-in.. and create some stats and wheels.. I'll be able to maintain the "fun" element without thinking about selling the wife and kids! (the car and the dog stay! LOL)

btw: came across a site which said they have a wheeling system that covers 49 numbers and guarantees 3/6 everytime - and it's been banned in NZ!! Anyone hear about this??

L8R
Troy
- busy searching "banned" wheels!!!
 

NmbrsDude

Member
Troy,

My only experience with these 3if3 of 49 wheels is that the record is around 168 tickets. That would mean, for Canada's national Lotto 6/49, you would have to spend $168 to guarantee a $10 win. Not my idea of a good plan!!
Let me know if it's something other than that.
 

TroyT

Member
ND,

I just wanted to ask if you've come across the term "high probability numbers" .. is that just another fancy term for "hot".. but based on longer trend history??

Troy.

This thread has had a lot of views!
 

NmbrsDude

Member
Troy,

I don't know that there's an official definition for "high probability numbers" but my guess, like yours, would be that it's someone's version of "hot". I could be wrong but it seems logical.
Funny you should mention the views because I really hadn't noticed until you said so... The more the merrier, I guess!

'Til later,
ND
 
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