Cost Of Wheeling

[Brad]

OPEN vs 100% Guarantee Wheels

When making wheels I usually opt for a full guarantee be it 3if3, 3if4 etc., but a large chunk of the 100% requirement seems to be realized in finding the last ~10% of the cover.

For example: 24,6,3,6 wheel needs 29 lines for a 100% guarantee, but only 12 lines for 91%.

That translates to a cost reduction of 60% for a loss of 9% of potential wins. In smaller wheels the reduction may be less (vice versa for larger wheels) but the savings are still there.

I've noticed this before but have not really paid close attention. It would seem to make sense to play open wheels, does anyone have thoughts on or experience with this type of approach ?

 

[Dennis Bassboss]

I would say to that ....budget is the bottom line here Brad...I'm a purist and I always preach for the best garanty wheel ...of course it is more expensive..but in reward if I hit I really hit...I know that some people will claim that they have more chances going for them playing more numbers...but I see it differently..and besides nothing is more frustrating to hit big with a large pool of numbers but winding up winning pocket change...Only my opinion here ...It is not a critic of any kind.

 

[ComboManiac]

TELL ME ABOUT IT

Back in May 2001 I had 5/13 in AW 13 30 lines and ended up winning only $100.00 Couldn't even match 4/6.

Yes Brad if I were you just save save then play a Strong AW 12 Sixty lines or so for 3 consecutive draws and who knows.
I agree with Dennis cause it's even nice to match 3/10 in a strong Wheel rather to what happened in May 2001

 

[Beaker]

Funny you should bring this up - I've been looking at wheels lately. I've been reading Ion Saliu's web site, about the myth of wheeling. I took another look at Robert Perkis's open wheels for 12 numbers and I might play them. It's 5if6 94% in 30 lines - l normally play a 5if6 wheel because I like the payout for 3 numbers. What I look for in any wheel is the possibility of getting my $$ back if I hit 3 - I know everything after that is gravy. I think it boils down to how you feel about your set and the budget. Since I don't filter my wheel, if I feel strongly about a set, I'll go with the 100% guaranteed. If I feel real greedy - I roll the BIG wheel out. I think its good to have a number of different wheeling strategies for particular occasions. The open wheel could be the workhorse.

 

[Brad]

Just to clarify: 24,6,3,6 was used as an example only. The same reasoning could be used for a 49,6,3,6 or a 12 nr wheel as Beaker points out.

I also agree that playing budget greatly affects the way we field our nrs but that is one of the reasons for this 'excercise'. Dennis' point is well taken but not all have the same success of correctly picking nrs (me ) and therefore being able to play wheels such as his.

Another way to look at this is to take a 3if3 wheel which 9 times out of 10 will pay for a 3 hit but costs about 1/2 of one that pays for all 3if3s. Again I use that as an example but to me it seems different than Combo's case, I could be wrong though.

There are other ways to approach this of course, such as generating a 3if3 (100%) wheel and then building a cover on top of it to give say 70% 4if4. Don't have specifics but think there would be 'savings' while still keeping a reasonable guarantee.

 

[Beaker]

Maybe I'm missing something - perhaps I should be playing the 3if3 or 4if4 wheels I know Dennis plays these with a DN. As he says, with 10 numbers, if it hits, you fill up the truck

I dunno, I still like the 5if6 wheels. To me, yes I want my $$ back if I hit 3, but I also want a good payout for the 4 or 5 hit. I'm not sure the 3if3 or 4if4 wheels do this. Might be a good exercise.

 

[Dennis Bassboss]

Some 4/4 are very rewarding the 12 numbers 41 lines is one of them...could have more than one 4 in it if it hits ...also the double garantee 4/4 and 5/6 are doing also this there is one for 12 numbers in 42 lines..I know of a freeware for playing small wheels
at Hypposys the program is called Tigrill it creates these double garantee wheels for you...It is a French program from France I think .....I have it here and it is interesting!Here how it works if you do small wheels not exceeding 11 numbers its freeware if you want more numbers it is shareware you can use it as long as you like as it is not limited in time...so for the smaller wheels it is O:K: ... Not all the wheels are good in there...I have found some better wheels elsewhere!

I don't think that there is something wrong by posting the link here but if there are some wrong doing please LT delete it!

http://thlebec.free.fr/index.html

 

[Beaker]

Some 4/4 are very rewarding the 12 numbers 41 lines is one of them...could have more than one 4 in it if it hits ...also the double garantee 4/4 and 5/6 are doing also this there is one for 12 numbers in 42 lines..I know of a freeware for playing small wheels
at Hypposys the program is called Tigrill it creates these double garantee wheels for you...It is a French program from France I think .....I have it here and it is interesting!

I play that 42 line 5/6 often. Normally when the 4 hits you get 1x4 and 11x3. A few times I've hit 4x4 and some small number of 3's. Now that I know where in the wheel the 4x4 are, I put hot numbers in those positions.

 

[Beaker]

Dennis, is that freeware?? My French isn't that good

OK I read your post

 

[Dennis Bassboss]

Dennis, is that freeware?? My French isn't that good

Yes Beaker totally free if you wheel 11 numbers or less the evaluation software comes with the possibility of wheeling only 11 numbers but what is good about it is that it is not limited in time so you could use it forever that way! And the builders aknowledge that in the read me files!

 

[dwoods99]

I often use 13 numbers and then wheel them with a guarantee that depends on how much I want to spend. From there I visually eliminate some lines to further reduce to my budget amount. So if my wheel generates 13 lines for 4 if 6, then I might still eliminate 1-3 lines to lower the cost.

 

[Brad]

Okay, I thought I was out of the woods...the fog was lifted

So I made 2 wheels using CoverMaster:

a)12,6,4,4=45 lines, 100% and b)12,6,5,6=45 lines 100%

The payouts are about the same across the spectrum of hits, except for small diffs like with a 3 match a) will get 3x3 min whereas b) has a small (2%) chance of 2x3 at least. At the higher end (wishfull thinking ) with a 6 match a) has a 6% chance of missing the 5 nr line, b) will always get one. But where one wheel may lack the higher nr hit it will almost make up for it by more lower nr hits. So really there seems to be no clear advantage to playing either wheel.

With all of this I almost forgot the gist of my Q ... oh yeah, cheaper wheels !

I liked the sound of Beaker's 5if6 94% wheel and managed to reproduce it with CM, 30 lines. I can see an advantage to playing it in BC49 as 15 bucks is my self imposed ceiling (most of the time) and want to explore it some more.

Cheers

 

[Beaker]

I liked the sound of Beaker's 5if6 94% wheel and managed to reproduce it with CM, 30 lines. I can see an advantage to playing it in BC49 as 15 bucks is my self imposed ceiling (most of the time) and want to explore it some more.

Cheers

Brad, here is the wheeling link to that wheel. There are a few others there that might be of interest. Now that I look at that wheel it has a pretty good win guarantee.

Interesting test thank you for posting the results.

For the provincial lotteries, the question becomes $15 for 94% or $21 for 100% - if I played the provincials I think I would be inclined to go 100% and just eliminate 2 tickets for 20 bucks.

 

[Brad]

Thanks for the link Beaker, I'll compare it to the CM wheel and see what happens.

PS. the 5if6 88% in 22 lines (see Beaker's link) looks like a nice donut too, good for those uncertain days when picks don't jump out and the gut is screwed up .

 

[NmbrsDude]

some more thoughts...

As some of you know by now, I use Lotto Genius to help me generate specialized wheels. There are probably other wheeling programs that do a similar job. I run a lottery pool in which we currently buy 44 tickets. I wanted to use 20 numbers with a 4if6 guarantee but that would take 76 tickets on the wheel I currently have.
I prioritize my 20 numbers to insert them into the wheel instead of entering them in numerical order. Some analysis showed that, in the prioritized order, the winning numbers that do come up are almost never close together. Example: 3 correct out of 20 which were the 4th, 11th and 17th.
I decided to use the Lotto Genius wheeling program to build a wheel that would take this new information into account and ended up building a 20 number, 4if6 guarantee wheel with 44 lines. Naturally, this is not a 100% guarantee but it is tailor made for the way my system predicts numbers. Therefore, when I do hit now, I always hit as well as if I had bought the full wheel but I spend about half the money.
Hope this helps...

ND

 

[Ben]

OPEN vs 100% Guarantee Wheels

When making wheels I usually opt for a full guarantee be it 3if3, 3if4 etc., but a large chunk of the 100% requirement seems to be realized in finding the last ~10% of the cover.

For example: 24,6,3,6 wheel needs 29 lines for a 100% guarantee, but only 12 lines for 91%.

That translates to a cost reduction of 60% for a loss of 9% of potential wins. In smaller wheels the reduction may be less (vice versa for larger wheels) but the savings are still there.

I've noticed this before but have not really paid close attention. It would seem to make sense to play open wheels, does anyone have thoughts on or experience with this type of approach ?

Hi Brad,
some wheeling sytems are easy to design them, but ......Le Hic (the snag) is ....Right number in right place
This an examlpe for:
12 numbers cost: 20$ guarantee: 100% if any 3 pairs
guessed CORRECTLY---
PAIR 1----PAIR 2----PAIR 3----PAIR4----PAIR5----PAIR6
01 02..... 03 04 ..... 05 06..... 07 08 .....09 10 ...11 12

1) 01-02-03-04-05-06..........10) 01-02-09-10-11-12
2) 01-02-03-04-07-08..........11) 03-04-05-06-07-08
3) 01-02-03-04-09-10..........12) 03-04-05-06-09-10
4) 01-02-03-04-11-12..........13) 03-04-05-06-11-12
5) 01-02-05-06-07-08..........14) 03-04-07-08-09-10
6) 01-02-05-06-09-10..........15) 03-04-07-08-11-12
7) 01-02-05-06-11-12..........16) 03-04-09-10-11-12
8) 01-02-07-08-09-10..........17) 05-06-07-08-09-10
9) 01-02-07-08-11-12..........18) 05-06-09-10-11-12
............................................19) 05-06-09-10-11-12
............................................20) 07-08-09-10-11-12


Other examle:
18 numbers ...cost 15$ guarantee 6/6
If any two groups guessed correctly.

GROUP1----------GROUP2----------GROUP3
01-02-03---------04-05-06---------07-08-09

GROUP4----------GROUP5----------GROUP6
10-11-12---------13-14-15---------16-17-18

1) 01-02-03-04-05-06..........9) 04-05-06-16-17-18
2) 01-02-03-07-08-09...........10) 07-08-09-10-11-12
3) 01-02-03-10-11-12...........11) 07-08-09-13-14-15
4) 01-02-03-13-14-15...........12) 07-08-09-16-17-18
5) 01-02-03-16-17-18...........13) 10-11-12-13-14-15
6) 04-05-06-07-08-09...........14) 10-11-12-16-17-18
7) 04-05-06-10-11-12...........15) 13-14-15-16-17-18
8) 04-05-06-13-14-15

Also with DN numbers cost less, but .....Find right Dn numbers is
BIG JOB..

 

[ComboManiac]

Re: Re: Cost Of Wheeling

Hi Brad,
some wheeling sytems are easy to design them, but ......Le Hic (the snag) is ....Right number in right place
This an examlpe for:
12 numbers cost: 20$ guarantee: 100% if any 3 pairs
guessed CORRECTLY---
PAIR 1----PAIR 2----PAIR 3----PAIR4----PAIR5----PAIR6
01 02..... 03 04 ..... 05 06..... 07 08 .....09 10 ...11 12

1) 01-02-03-04-05-06..........10) 01-02-09-10-11-12
2) 01-02-03-04-07-08..........11) 03-04-05-06-07-08
3) 01-02-03-04-09-10..........12) 03-04-05-06-09-10
4) 01-02-03-04-11-12..........13) 03-04-05-06-11-12
5) 01-02-05-06-07-08..........14) 03-04-07-08-09-10
6) 01-02-05-06-09-10..........15) 03-04-07-08-11-12
7) 01-02-05-06-11-12..........16) 03-04-09-10-11-12
8) 01-02-07-08-09-10..........17) 05-06-07-08-09-10
9) 01-02-07-08-11-12..........18) 05-06-09-10-11-12
............................................19) 05-06-09-10-11-12
............................................20) 07-08-09-10-11-12


Other examle:
18 numbers ...cost 15$ guarantee 6/6
If any two groups guessed correctly.

GROUP1----------GROUP2----------GROUP3
01-02-03---------04-05-06---------07-08-09

GROUP4----------GROUP5----------GROUP6
10-11-12---------13-14-15---------16-17-18

1) 01-02-03-04-05-06..........9) 04-05-06-16-17-18
2) 01-02-03-07-08-09...........10) 07-08-09-10-11-12
3) 01-02-03-10-11-12...........11) 07-08-09-13-14-15
4) 01-02-03-13-14-15...........12) 07-08-09-16-17-18
5) 01-02-03-16-17-18...........13) 10-11-12-13-14-15
6) 04-05-06-07-08-09...........14) 10-11-12-16-17-18
7) 04-05-06-10-11-12...........15) 13-14-15-16-17-18
8) 04-05-06-13-14-15

Also with DN numbers cost less, but .....Find right Dn numbers is
BIG JOB..

Hey Ben,

Nice wheels especially the 1st it's called SEROTIC. I have been telling them about it .
The second one is great considering the cost. $7.50 for out provincial Lotto. But have to match 4 in 2 triplets to make some decent money.

 

[Dennis Bassboss]

Re: some more thoughts...

As some of you know by now, I use Lotto Genius to help me generate specialized wheels. There are probably other wheeling programs that do a similar job. I run a lottery pool in which we currently buy 44 tickets. I wanted to use 20 numbers with a 4if6 guarantee but that would take 76 tickets on the wheel I currently have.
I prioritize my 20 numbers to insert them into the wheel instead of entering them in numerical order. Some analysis showed that, in the prioritized order, the winning numbers that do come up are almost never close together. Example: 3 correct out of 20 which were the 4th, 11th and 17th.
I decided to use the Lotto Genius wheeling program to build a wheel that would take this new information into account and ended up building a 20 number, 4if6 guarantee wheel with 44 lines. Naturally, this is not a 100% guarantee but it is tailor made for the way my system predicts numbers. Therefore, when I do hit now, I always hit as well as if I had bought the full wheel but I spend about half the money.
Hope this helps...

ND

It is very humble to say that a 4/6 wheel always hits as much as a 100% wheel....but I am not sure if this is an honest statement....

 

[Beaker]

Re: Re: Re: Cost Of Wheeling

Hey Ben,

Nice wheels especially the 1st it's called SEROTIC. I have been telling them about it .
The second one is great considering the cost. $7.50 for out provincial Lotto. But have to match 4 in 2 triplets to make some decent money.

These pairs/group wheels are dangerous - I never play them You can end up with nothing very easily. Better to play the open or higher % wheels. My humble opinion.

 

[Dennis Bassboss]

Re: Re: Re: Cost Of Wheeling

Hey Ben,

Nice wheels especially the 1st it's called SEROTIC. I have been telling them about it .
The second one is great considering the cost. $7.50 for out provincial Lotto. But have to match 4 in 2 triplets to make some decent money.

This is also humble...but it can force you to be too much humble ...ending up winning nothing even having a decent hit!