649 tips and strategies

[Tarantula]

GillesD,
The birthday thing is pretty interesting, however I have to point out that 23 birthdays of a possible 365 is about 6.3% to get that percentage of 6/49 combinations would be 881,170 drawings - something we probably won't see in our lifetime unless there's a drawing much more frequently than daily.

Another interesting fact is in the first 10 or so years of the PA daily lottery (3 digit 1/1000) there were 5 or 6 numbers that had never been drawn (this was around 1987 or so).

RJO3,
Thanks for pointing out the error on my web site, and for the BC49 data. I have corrected the error, added the new data, and made some adjustments to the parameters generating the forecast. There should be a new forecast for the BC49 within an hour or so available on my site.

 

[Brad]

Bit off topic...

Hi Tarantula,

maybe you should consider starting a new thread in this section cuz Forecasting is better suited here rather than Anything Goes, IMO.

Rather than splitting-up into individual games, since your site covers many lottos globally, it may make more sense to park here for general Q's, input from players, comments, etc.

And if players make use of your Forecast they could provide a note of credit in the appropriate Picks threads if/when they post ...


What do you think?


Cheers

PS thanks for the BC49 update

 

[GillesD]

Getting all numbers

Tarantula

Your mention of some numbers not coming out after quite a few draws lead me to try a small experiment. Simulate drawing numbers from 0 to 999 and determine how many draws were necessary to get respectively 500, 750, 950 and 1000 different numbers. This was done 500 times to get meaningful results. Here are the numbers of draws I needed to get:

- 500 different numbers: Average: 694.4 ranging from 647 to 748 and a standard deviation of 18.1

- 750 different numbers: Average: 1,389.7 ranging from 1,262 to 1,509 and a standard deviation of 41.7

- 950 different numbers: Average: 2,983.2 ranging from 2,658 to 3,478 and a standard deviation of 133.6

- 1000 different numbers: Average: 7,374.9 ranging from 5,087 to 12,235 and a standard deviation of 1,361.6

And I have to agree with Brad about the length and scope of this thread.

 

[ChiefWiggum]

Tarantula

Thank you for pointing out that at least 40% of draws involve a REPEAT (or carryover).

It is the case-winning argument in Statistics & Probability vs. The Evidence.

Few of these cases see the inside of a court room.

The plaintiff, (S & P), usually reaches an an "out-of-court" settlement.

The respondent tends to settle for 4/6 or 5/6.

Every so often, a class action suit (syndicate) is attempted. The circus continues.

The lawyers ("Mathemagicians") have to eat too.

 

[Francis Isaac]

Re: Francis Isaac

Hi Tarantula,

The particular combination that I want checking did not come from past data. It came from the amount of combination of each number in position 1 in the lottery. I, then made a prediction based on the first three numbers that is more likely to come out more often and the last two numbers i.e. number 48 and 49 that is more likely to come out in the last column. The combination itself is not expected to give the jackpot but I was expecting it to atleast give five numbers and no more. I wanted this checked against any 6/49 lotteries in order to see if five numbers atleast has come out in any of the lotteries. You can combine results together and use it as a guide to future behaviour of the system, it just depends on how you chose to do it.

 

[Francis Isaac]

Hi ChiefWiggum,

I do not want to form a syndicate with those numbers but I expected those combinations to do very well in any 6/49 lotteries in the World and I was only asking other members to assist with my assumption which infact they have done. I do not expect the Jackpot line to come out of those combinations because of the three and two consecutive numbers on the same line but I expect those combinations to be good for the lower tier winnings which is not what I am after myself. I am after the jackpot and I am working very hard to get it.

 

[Francis Isaac]

Hi Tarantula,

There is nothing wrong in lumping results together in order to use it to predict one lottery. Although, I must admit that this is not the most scientific way of doing it but I find that lumping them together help me to see how the sum of each combinations are behaving and which sum has come out and which has not. It is the same argument about bonus number. Some people believe that you should not use the bonus number as part of your combinations, you should only focus on the first six numbers and ignore the bonus. I find that the bonus numbers help to give me more data and I use the assumption that if a six number combinations has come out, it is not relevant whether it came out as the jackpot or five plus the bonus, but once it has come out, it has less chance of coming out again. Some six numbers do repeat themselves by coming out again but this is very rare indeed. It does not occur often.

 

[Francis Isaac]

Re: Unlikely combinations

Hi GillesD,

I particularly like your argument about 1 2 3 4 5 6. It is the same argument about all combinations of six numbers in the whole lottery system coming out eventually. I diagree that 1 2 3 4 5 6 will eventually come out because I bilieve that by the time this event even happen and that is if it has any chance of happening, we will all be dead anyway. 1 2 3 4 5 6 is just such an unlikely event to occur that I am prepared to take a small bet on it. If not all combinations are going to come out eventually, why should 1 2 3 4 5 6 come out. You must also remember that we are not talking about the progress of mankind like whether it will be possible for us to ever visit planet Mars one day. There is no way that I will say that it is not possible or that it will never happen. What we are talking about is a naturally random generated event. Certain combinations will never come out in the 6/49 lotteries and I am afraid that your 1 2 3 4 5 6 happens to be one of them. You have also admitted that you will not play this combination anyway, so, there is no point in discussing it really other than for curiosity. I still believe that those who are waiting for 1 2 3 4 5 6 to come out are wasting their time and money and if it ever come out, I will be more than happy to eat humble pie and admit that I was wrong but until then, you have got no strike on me. Proof it to me that 1 2 3 4 5 6 will come out atleast before we die and I will happily accept that I was wrong.

 

[ChiefWiggum]

Francis

I heard on the grapevine that in the UK, about 13,000 people each week bet on 1-2-3-4-5-6.

They must lead busy lives.

 

[PAB]

Hi ChiefWiggum,

Francis

I heard on the grapevine that in the UK, about 13,000 people each week bet on 1-2-3-4-5-6.

They must lead busy lives.

In an Article in One of the Tabloids Last Year, they Estimated that there was in Excess of 20,000 People that Played 1-2-3-4-5-6 Each Draw. The thing is, if that Combination was to be Drawn, the Payout would Probably NOT Cover their Layout to Date.
The Average Jackpot Money for the UK 649 Lotto is About £4,000,000. If we Assume that the Numbers 1-2-3-4-5-6 are Drawn and that 20,000 People have the Winning Numbers, they would EACH Receive £200.
At Least they are Increasing the Jackpot Money Available Each Draw.

All the Best.
PAB

 

[ChiefWiggum]

For your amusement:

Open Letter from The Mob to The Lotto Corporations:

Consider a game of roulette. Similar to a 1/35 lottery.

It can be roughly turned into a 6/36 lottery, by grouping the results into groups of 6.

If, after such grouping, it was found that over 40% of the time a number from the current half-dozen was a REPEAT from the previous half-dozen, there would be a lot of red faces,
or worse, at the casino.

We respect our customers. Why don't you ?

 

[red0412303609]

heres something

I know from just sheer observation that most winning numbers fall between 9 to 41 with a good sum range--now if someone were to have a lotto program with every winning combination deducted from every possible combination we could probably play the remaing sets to a good win ratio--- Can this be really done????
its another deduction theory

 

[GillesD]

Range for winning numbers

red0412303609

Your statement "just sheer observation that most winning numbers fall between 9 to 41" is not confirmed by hard data, at least not in Canadian Lotto 6/49.

If winning numbers are divided into 3 groups, we get the following results:

Numbers 01 to 08: 2,145 times or 16.11% (expected value for 8 numbers: 16.33%)
Numbers 09 to 41: 8,902 times or 66.86% (expected value for 33 numbers: 67.35%)
Numbers 42 to 49: 2,267 times or 17.08% (expected value for 8 numbers: 16.33%)

By comparing the occurences of 33 numbers against 16, it is sure you will get more occurences but choosing any set of 33 numbers will give you this (first 33, last 33, first 16+last 17, middle 33, etc.).

Actually the numbers 09 to 41 occured a little less often than expected; this also applies to numbers 01 to 08. Only the range 42-49 shows more occurences than expected. This indicates that higher numbers (but not only in the range 42-49) have a small but definite tendency to come out a little more often.

This can be seen even more easily if all numbers are divided in equal groups of 7 numbers. The results are then:

Numbers 01 to 07: 1884 times or 14.15%
Numbers 08 to 14: 1808 times or 13.58%
Numbers 15 to 21: 1874 times or 14.08%
Numbers 22 to 28: 1851 times or 13.90%
Numbers 29 to 35: 1982 times or 14.89%
Numbers 36 to 42: 1919 times or 14.41%
Numbers 43 to 49: 1996 times or 14.99%

For 7 numbers out of 49, the value should be 14.29%.

 

[Tarantula]

Brad,
Thanks for the email to clarify, but not to worry - I read it as you intended.
I agree, and will be starting the new thread shortly.

GillesD,
Thanks for the effort - I love your numbers. Right now I divide the numbers into 4 groups for analysis, but plan to make that a variable to allow my system to be more dynamic.

ChiefWiggum,
Huh? I've enjoyed your posts but am not sure what to make of your comments to me 8) ...

Francis Isaac,
From what you've said then, your predictions have nothing to do with the past data from any lottery but are a generic prediction you're trying to fit to any 6/49 lottery - is that correct?

 

[Tarantula]

New Thread

As suggested by others, I've started a new thread to discuss my forecasting.

Thanks everyone.

 

[PAB]

As a Follow Up to GillesD's Table and Statistics, I have Calculated the Total Coverage for the Groups in Regard to ALL 13,983,816 Combinations in a 649 Lotto.

red0412303609

This can be seen even more easily if all numbers are divided in equal groups of 7 numbers. The results are then:

Numbers 01 to 07: 1884 times or 14.15%
Numbers 08 to 14: 1808 times or 13.58%
Numbers 15 to 21: 1874 times or 14.08%
Numbers 22 to 28: 1851 times or 13.90%
Numbers 29 to 35: 1982 times or 14.89%
Numbers 36 to 42: 1919 times or 14.41%
Numbers 43 to 49: 1996 times or 14.99%

For 7 numbers out of 49, the value should be 14.29%.

The Following Table ( Horizontal 7 x 7 Matrix ) Lists the 7 Groups of 7 Numbers.

Group 1 Numbers = 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Group 2 Numbers = 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Group 3 Numbers = 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Group 4 Numbers = 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
Group 5 Numbers = 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
Group 6 Numbers = 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
Group 7 Numbers = 43 44 45 46 47 48 49

The Following Table Lists ALL the Distributions Available, the Total Combinations Available from ALL 13,983,816 Combinations, the Percentage Available from ALL 13,983,816 Combinations & the Expected Drawn 1 in Every Draws Based on the 13,983,816 Combinations.

1111110 823,543 Combs 5.89% Expected 1 in Every 16.98 Draws
2111100 5,294,205 Combs 37.86% Expected 1 in Every 2.64 Draws
2211000 4,537,890 Combs 32.45% Expected 1 in Every 3.08 Draws
2220000 324,135 Combs 2.32% Expected 1 in Every 43.14 Draws
3111000 1,680,700 Combs 12.02% Expected 1 in Every 8.32 Draws
3210000 1,080,450 Combs 7.73% Expected 1 in Every 12.94 Draws
3300000 25,725 Combs 0.18% Expected 1 in Every 543.59 Draws
4110000 180,075 Combs 1.29% Expected 1 in Every 77.66 Draws
4200000 30,870 Combs 0.22% Expected 1 in Every 452.99 Draws
5100000 6,174 Combs 0.04% Expected 1 in Every 2,264.95 Draws
6000000 49 Combs 0.00% Expected 1 in Every 285,384.00 Draws
Totals > 13,983,816 Combinations 100.00% Percent

The Distribution 2111100 for Example, Means 2 Numbers from ANY One Group and 1 Number from ANY Four Out of the Six Remaining Groups. I have Included the Distributions with Seven Digits to Make it Easier to Understand, BUT the LAST Digit of Each Distribution can be Omitted as the Normal Structure for things Such as Distributions are Normally Only Shown with Six Digits.
No Surprises that the Distribution 2111100 Contains the Most Combinations of 5,294,205.

All the Best.
PAB

 

[mremixer]

Why did this thread die?

I just read through all this thread and was loving the overall feel of it, the assumptions, the arguments, the theories, the stastics, the probabilities, the debunking, it was great!

Plus, because it's been quite a while since Francis Isaac's predictions! (He was a bit gung ho and "I know what I know and you know what you know" lol!) I was wondering if anybody had actually gone back and tested his predictions for validity!

I would but I have no idea how to test them without actually checking through them one by one by visual confirmation, however from what I gather most members here could check them very quickly with there macro's, spreadsheats etc.. Anybody willing to give them a quick once over?

 

[Francis Isaac]

Re: Results

Since the last time I posted on this thread, I felt like giving up my idea because everyone has been so anti. But a win of £6000.00 and another win of £800.00 convinced me that I am right and anyone who does not agree with me, does not understand how the 649 lottery truly works. I am still around and I will now continue to take an active part in this discussion. I am predicting that my next win is either going to be in the region of £140,000 or may be even the Jackpot in the UK lottery. I will let you all know by using the thread with proof of course as soon as I have achieved my prediction.

 

[Francis Isaac]

mremixer,

I am back and we can continue the discussion about the lottery and keep this thread alive.

 

[GillesD]

Near impossible draw

Hi GillesD,
Certain combinations will never come out in the 6/49 lotteries and I am afraid that your 1 2 3 4 5 6 happens to be one of them. ... Proof it to me that 1 2 3 4 5 6 will come out atleast before we die and I will happily accept that I was wrong.

A good thing you came out of retirement to view today's result for Lotto 6/49: 23 - 40 - 41 - 42 - 44 - 45. Just having 5 numbers in the same group of ten numbers is pretty rare (about 0.3% of the times), but what makes it even more interesting is the bonus number. YES, it is 43, so out of the 7 numbers drawn, 6 of them are consecutive (40 to 45). I know, I know this is not the famous 1-2-3-4-5-6 combination but this confirms that any 6 numbers can and will eventually come, give or take a few centuries, and may be even next saturday.

I agree that I can not prove the combination will come out (or when) but your total reject of this possibility is not based on something. Remember UNLIKELY is not equal to IMPOSSIBLE. And with the amount of snow we got this winter (over 400 cm in Quebec City), I have to say: anything is possible.