649 tips and strategies

[Tarantula]

Irvin,
I have added the NZ lottery - what an interesting critter, bonus, powerball and strike order in the same lotto - or am I reading it wrong?
The history doesn't include the drawing date, so I didn't use it.

More important than the history data is a URL where I can go to find the current winning numbers of the last draw in text format (it took some looking, but I found one). Once I have acquired 10 drawings worth of data I'll be generating forecasts.

Matrix,
Yes, please send me your research info - I'd love to read it.

TW Lotto - I can't seem to find anything on it. What I really need more than anything to include it in my forecast is a URL where I can find the winners of the latest drawing in text format - I don't have to be able to read the verbage on the page just the numbers (I'm forecasting the Italian lotto getting the info from pages where I don't understand the language).

Francis Isaac,
Reading your posts has me curious about your strategy and philosophy of predicting ...

If your predictions are based on a single lottery's historical data - how can you then check your predictions against other lottery results and call this valid? Doesn't the fact that no two lotteries share the same history render that observation invalid - even if the lotteries are of the same format?

 

[Matrix]

Hi Matrix,

Thanks for that. I await the rest of your results. Have you got a program that helps you to do this because I would not mind having a program like that. I would love to run my combinations against past data in my database but the program that I have can only calculate up to 20 numbers and that is it. If you can give me the address of where to buy the program, I would be extremely grateful.

i always use this software MATLAB.

you can try it.

All i need to do is to input the lotto history data(text file),

they will be checked out in 2~5seconds.

 

[red0412303609]

software

I am looking for some software that will allow me to enter repetitious numbers-- up to 15 selections???? can anybody help??

 

[GillesD]

Unlikely combinations

Francis Isaac

Now let’s look at my A combination, the famous 1-2-3-4-5-6. I once read that this combination is one of the frequent combinations that people bet on. At least, this would be a very good reason by itself not to choose it: if you win with it when it is going to come out, your winnings will diluted due to numerous winners.

You then proceed with a very nice demonstration about the chances of this combination saying things like:
- “The combination of numbers in the Lottery system does not exist alone. They exist in a group of combinations”; very true and each 6-number combination is unique since the order the 6 balls come out does not matter and there are only 49 balls to draw from (with no duplicate);
- “The competition in that group is so unbelievable because you will expect the sum with the most amount of combination to have the most chance of coming out” while referring to combinations with 1-2-3 and with a sum going from 21 (with numbers 4-5-6) to 150 (with numbers 47-48-49). You are right in saying a total sum of 21 has only once chance against all others but the winner of the lottery is not the one that finds the proper sum but the on that picks all individual numbers. As a matter of fact, in all combinations, 150 is the sum occurring most often with 165,772 times (a very nice normal distribution also for the sum of numbers);
- You then add a complicating factor, the fact that all numbers must be consecutive but this does not add anything to the discussion since to get a sum of 21 with 6 different and positive numbers, this can be achieved only with 1-2-3-4-5-6;
- Up to here, I have to agree with your reasoning: the combination has extremely low chances of coming out (as a matter of fact 13,983,815 against 1).

But this is where you take your wishful thinking for an undisputable fact by stating, “It has no chance of coming out”. To me (and I would add to any sound scientific mind), anything with even a very remote chance of occurring cannot be dismissed entirely. Just think you are in 1950 and you consider the odds against putting a man on the moon within 50 years; the odds for this would have been even greater than winning a 6/49 lottery. Yet it happened less than 20 years later. With your reasoning, you would have said: NO WAY, it cannot ever be done.

I do not say that the 1-2-3-4-5-6 combination will come out in draw #2119 on Wednesday or within 20 years or roughly 2100 draws (you have to remember that this represents about 0.015% of all combinations) but the statement can not be rejected altogether.

So I would say you missed this one also and you are now down two strikes. Being in England, you may not know too much about baseball, but after 3 strikes you are out.

 

[ChiefWiggum]

This discussion appears to be a Statistics & Probability Tutorial.

The lecturer seems to be a busy, somewhat disorganised, Chemistry graduate.

It has taken him 10 years to collect and organise the course material.

The delivery style appears to be of the form "101 facts about.."

The class has lost interest.

They have already covered this material.

 

[Brad]

Good points Chief

Wake me up when there's something new in the lesson plan



will this be on the final exam?? . . . .

 

[Irvin]

Hello Tarantula,

Sorry about the run around on the NZ lotto.

Yes there are other games within the lotto game.

New Zealand lotto is now a 6+b from 40 game (its changed so many times but still uses 40 numbers)

The other game is strike you have to guess the first 4 drawn lotto numbers from the 6 drawn in the correct order.

And then there is the power ball number on top of all that (Picked from 8 balls).

 

[Matrix]

UK..........13.26.27.38.41.43 (35)
Germany.06.09.16.20.25.43 (01)
France....01.04.19.21.37.44 (47)
France....09.15.18.25.37.45 (24)
Spanish..09.12.14.24.38.46 (20)
Canda....08.09.12.20.45.48 (39)
SA...........08.21.26.31.33.35 (40)
SA...........03.08.15.17.21.22 (35)
USA........13.15.18.29.43.46
WC.........07.16.20.26.31.32
NJ...........13.14.15.35.42.48
OHIO......03.15.19.32.37.44 (12)
Malaysia.18.20.26.30.36.42 (28)
HK...........04.09.22.30.33.35 (13)
TW...........04 05 22 33 36 43 (26)
---------------------------------------------
UK..........03.18.25.29.31.43 (23)
Germany.04.07.13.21.37.49 (48)
France....04.05.11.15.21.23 (27)
France....11.14.15.24.27.32 (13)
Spanish..12.29.31.42.43.44 (22)
Canda....18.19.23.29.33.45 (08)
SA...........16.28.33.41.47.48 (27)
SA...........04.09.10.17.25.32 (06)
USA........04.17.33.38.42.44
WC.........02.04.14.25.27.37
NJ...........05.14.23.25.36.46
OHIO......13.18.29.32.36.40 (22)
Malaysia.10.14.22.23.25.46 (32)
HK...........03.09.27.31.38.45 (34)
TW...........01 16 25 34 36 38 (41)


maybe next time.......

 

[Francis Isaac]

Hi ChiefWiggum,

If the class have already covered this material, why have they not won the lottery yet?

Do you really think that I can lose interest from my chosen subject just because the so called expert are sitting there being pompous and yet they are not winning.

Show me or proof to me that you have won the Jackpot more than once and how you did it and I will not contribute towards the discussion anymore.

Until then, what you know is no better than what I know and I deal with reality and not just making a statement without being able to back it up scientifically.

 

[Francis Isaac]

Re: Unlikely combinations

Hi GillesD,

From your statement, you seems to be agreeing with me because if number 22 has not come out in the last five years from its last appearance, are we not saying the same thing? Now you said that it may well be due, I do agree with you on this one so, which combination of six numbers starting with number 22 are you now going to pick that will definitely come out in the future. If you can post it now and it does come out , I will agree that you have got one on me. Until then, using lottery results that has already come out to back up your point is irrelevant because what we are trying to predict is what is going to happen in the future and not what has already happened. We only use the past as a guide to what will happen in the future and that is all. Will you be prepared to play one line of number 22 that comes out 14 times in 2218 draws? You have to have the patient of a saint to do that. If someone win with number 38 starting the group, it is because they played it randomly mostly and they were just very lucky, that is all. Number 38 starting the group will come out but not very often.
When is number 38 starting the group going to come out again, do you know? If you do not know, how can you say that you have got one on me. You have not got anything on me, you just believe that you have and that is entirely up to you and your reasoning which I must say that as a human being you are entitled to have.

 

[Francis Isaac]

Hi PAB,

What do you think of the results? Does it not proof that all 6/49 lotteries behaves in a similar fashion and that a combinatrion like that will be suitable in any 6/49 lotteries in the World.

Let me have your comment in due course.

 

[Tarantula]

Francis Isaac

Francis Isaac,
Reading your posts has me curious about your strategy and philosophy of predicting ...

If your predictions are based on a single lottery's historical data - how can you then check your predictions against other lottery results and call this valid? Doesn't the fact that no two lotteries share the same history render that observation invalid - even if the lotteries are of the same format?

 

[ChiefWiggum]

Francis

The recent election of the pope by SECRET ballot illustrates the answer to your question.

119 cardinals meet to elect a pope.
A two thirds majority is required.
4 votes a day are held
If, after 60 votes are taken, a two thirds majority is not reached, then a simple majority is allowed.

The result is announced within 2 days. A new pope is chosen.

The media, denied access to these proceedings, engages in speculation.

Was the pope a popular choice ?

Did he achieve a two thirds majority, or a simple majority ?

Who voted for/against him ?

The only fact that can asserted with absolute certainty is that the pope obtained AT LEAST a simple majority. There is consequently NO PRIZE for guessing this, since it is obvious.

The other questions remain unanswered.

To be explicit:

The election is the Lotto Draw
The media is YOU.
The "rules" of the ballot are Statistics & Probability.

Simply re-stating the "rules" of the ballot generates no public interest.

Feel free to speculate! Break some "rules".

As for experts sitting on the sidelines, they exist.

They are waiting for you to get on the same page.

 

[CMF]

Pope's wish not answered ...

I went to Mcdonald's, just around the corner from me, a while ago with my 9 year old daughter - last day of Easter School Holidays. The Supervisor was badly dressed and the kichen staff were loudly arguing with each other. Unusual, I thought.

Got my McOz and Quarter Pounder for my daughter and the daily paper. I then find at least 20 cold, uncooked chips (frys) amongst the cooked fat soaked ones - definitely not crisp. Unusual, I thought. The place was not packed out as I would have expected - wonder why, I thought.

So, read through the paper - gave up buying them years ago - doing my thing for the Amazon and tree preservation and noticed this little snippet.

Pope admits he prayed to God he would not be elected. Admits God did not hear him. Not unusual, I thought.

Better go and make a cup of coffee. What were you talking about? Ah, Lotto, do carry on.

Colin

 

[Francis Isaac]

Re: Francis Isaac

Hi Tarantula,

The 6/49 lottery share the same information in the sense that they should eventually come to the same conclusion although the six numbers being generated from each lottery are different. A combination of six numbers that has come out from a 6/49 lottery in one country has little chance of coming out somewhere else. There is a general trend between the 6/49 lottery in the sense that they all have the same amount of combination and should behaves similarly even though there results appear to be different. The combination that I gave out above will give good results in any 6/49 lotteries because it is based on the amount of combination each number have in the 6/49 lotteries. You can use the combinations in any 6/49 lotteries in any country and by asking other members to check it for me, I am trying to proof my hypothesis that the combinations should generate good result in all countries. I hope that this has answered your question, if not, you are free to ask me another question if you are still not convince, but let the results from other members convince you.

 

[ChiefWiggum]

A combination drawn in the New Zealand Lotto subsequently appeared in the Australian Lotto.

I hope this information is helpful to you.

 

[Francis Isaac]

Hi ChiefWiggum,

I must admit that it does happen but not very often in comparison to the amount of combinations being drawn. Sometimes when I try to combine two results together, some of the results will be rejected because my program has found a duplicate which means that two different lotteries have suddenly got exactly the same six numbers. You cannot say that because a combination which occur in a particular lottery has occurred in another lottery, therefore, you will play numbers that has occurred in one lottery in another lottery in the hope that it will come out in that different lottery. I cannot use the combination which has come out in the UK lottery to play the 6/49 Canadian lotto for example. Although certain thing happen that we do not expect to happen, what advantage is it to us and can we use the results to get a better life for ourselves because that is what it is all about.

 

[ChiefWiggum]

Francis

I think I've finally deciphered what you are saying.

Please correct me if I'm wrong.

You have a list of combinations that, according to your calculations, are good for any 6/49 lottery in the world. The calculations are based on Statistics and Probability.

At the moment, you have a limited history which you need to expand in order to test this list against.

In order to expand the history, you may need to "borrow" some histories from other countries.

You are unsure as to whether it is prudent to do this.

Is it better to generate the required history ? You are undecided.

Once you have compiled the list, you may need to form a syndicate to bet on the numbers since you probably cannot afford the coverage needed.

If you wanted to form a syndicate, why didn't you just say so ?

Brevity is the soul of wit - Bill Shakespeare

 

[Tarantula]

Francis,

I disagree!

I don't beleive that you can lump all of the 6/49 lotteries together like that. While you are correct that the chances of numbers drawn in one lottery to be drawn in another - it has happened (as ChiefWiggum pointed out, and it wouldn't surprise me to see more - but I haven't actually checked that). The chances of the same numbers being drawn twice in a single lottery are next to nil - even if the lottery in question were drawn daily for 10 years. Anyone feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't beleive that has happened to date in any lottery.

Since you're lumping all of the 6/49 lotteries together, why not simulate your own 6/49 lottery (on your computer) and use that information to determine your predictions - since they are all the same and can be lumped together, it shouldn't matter that it's not an actual played lottery (since it's another 6/49 format).

I think that maybe if you were to look at 30 million drawings for two different 6/49 lotteries, you would be able to make the same generalizations about the data for each, but the window we're looking at is what about 1000 drawings or less, for each lottery I think you'll find that each lottery is unique because of that limited amount of data we're looking at.

I believe that each lottery is it's own unique entity and can't be used in attempts to predict a different lottery. I think that if you look at any given aspect of one lottery, and compare it to that same aspect of another lottery of the same format you will find different results.

What happens to your analysis when a lottery changes format, let's say they decided to add 3 more numbers tomorrow and now one of your 6/49 lotteries is a 6/52? Or when a lottery ends? Do 6/49's and 6/49+1's get lumped together or would they be seperate by you're theory?

While I keep an open mind, it will take something solid to convince me otherwise. Let me know what you think.

Anyone else have any thoughts on the matter?

PAB,
You seem to be the man for statistical numbers around here - I see them in your posts all the time.

Carryover - this is my term for when one or more numbers from today's drawing is drawn again tomorrow, I'm not sure what you may call it but I know you've looked at this aspect of drawings. Have you looked at this aspect for each of the canadian 6/49's? If so do they come fairly close together or is there a significant variance from lottery to lottery? I know with different format lotteries, I've seen large (up to 20% variance).
I only asked you specifically because I recall seeing it posted somewhere here for a single lottery (I think it was you who posted it) but I was unable to find it again.

 

[GillesD]

Carryover(s)

Tarantula

Carryover is a good term for any number repeating itself in next draw. In theory, the probability of no carryover is 43.6% and obviously, a 56.4% probability of having 1 to 6 carryovers. Having the same 6 winning numbers repeating themselves in consecutive draws appears impossible but the odds for this are still 13,983,815 to 1. In the table below, I listed the individual values (theorical and actual) for the 7 possible carryovers, from 0 to 6. This is based on 2218 draws of Lotto 6/49.

0 number: 43.6% theorical and actual: 43.3%
1 number: 41.3% theorical and actual: 41.1%
2 numbers: 13.2% theorical and actual: 13.7%
3 numbers: 1.77% theorical and actual: 1.76%
4 numbers: 0.097% theorical and actual: 0.045%
5 numbers: 0.002% theorical and actual: 0.000%
6 numbers: 0.000% theorical and actual: 0.000%

The question about when we can expect a winning combination to come out again has always puzzled me and you mention unlikely within 10 years for a daily lottery. I agree as this represents slightly over 3650 draws or 0.0261% of all combinations. But we have to remember that you need less than 23 people in a room to have more chances of having 2 persons with the same birthday than having all different birthdays.

The following site (http://people.bath.ac.uk/clp20/thebirthdayproblem.html) provides some information on this problem.