Conspiracy or wild guess
edlottery
You posted some of your thoughts but I do not see any data justifying those. I hope you will provide me and other members here more information. Here are a few comments coming to my mind.
A - Your combinations
You listed 31 combinations (186 numbers) but altogether, you used only 15 numbers in these combinations, each number appearing either 12 or 13 times. So obviously a wheel with numbers ranging from 02 to 33.
B - Performance of your 31 combinations
If your 31 combinations are compared to the 2,237 draws of Lotto 6/49, the following results are obtained for the percentage of winning numbers (WN) with the theorical value also indicated:
- 0 WN: 44.2% actual value and 43.6% theorical value
- 1 WN: 41.3% actual value and 41.3% theorical value
- 2 WN: 12.8% actual value and 13.2% theorical value
- 3 WN: 1.65% actual value and 1.77% theorical value
- 4 WN: 0.07% actual value and 0.10% theorical value
- 5 WN: 0.00% actual value and 0.00% theorical value
- 5 WN+B: 0.00% actual value and 0.00% theorical value
- 6 WN: 0.00% actual value and 0.00% theorical value
There are some minor differences between each combinations but no combination stands out (either very good or very bad). So your combinations appear to be fairly representative.
So up to that point, I have no problem but then you make some very generic comments that are unproven and worse, can not be proven eventually. Why?
C – Comments on change, conspiracy, etc.
You say “if my guess is right the lottery numbers will start changing if people play these numbers”. This very broad statement raises a few questions of my own:
- “if people play these numbers”: Who are those people (members of this board, the general public, etc.)? How will they know that’s these numbers should or should not be played? How many times must these numbers be played to have the effect you forecast? How will you know if these numbers are actually played or not? To my knowledge, such information is never made public. And with the large number of combinations sold (about 7,500,000 tickets sold for each draw across Canada), it would take a massive input of your combinations to really make an effect.
- “the lottery numbers will start changing”: On what basis can you and will you measure this change? Distribution of all individual numbers, distribution of the 15 numbers you choose, any other measurement, etc.? Will you compare the data up to the end of 2005 against the first 6 months of 2005, the last 200, 500, 1000 draws or against all draws. Obviously you can not expect exact duplication of data over some undefined period of time but how significant will be the change you predict?
Then you seem to indicate that there is a great conspiracy going on. On what basis? Your combinations will or will not be favoured in those draws? Who will the winners of this conspiracy? Who would benefit from it?
But I will give this, you are right for one thing (well at least 2 words): “MY GUESS”. The problem is that all your saying is just that: a wild guess based on no hard facts. So in 6 months, you can come back and say: “See I told you” but I would rather like to have more indications now on what you forecast, predict, guess or whatever.