(UK) 96,153.85 Years Worth Of Draws.

[PAB]

An acquaintance of a friend of mine said that the longer the Lotto goes on the better the chances you have of winning. When I asked him what he meant this is the explanation he gave me. He said that certain numbers over many hundreds of draws will show a higher percentage of being drawn than others, so that if he followed the total times each ball was drawn and just did the numbers that were lagging behind because they would need to catch up to the others he would win.
My response was to first ask him if he thought that the Lotto was fixed (that bits for all you conspiracy theorists out there), to which he replied no. I then asked him if the balls were really drawn randomly, to which he answered yes.
I then tried to explain to him that the balls have no memory and that each of the combinations in a Lotto has just as much chance as any other of being drawn.
His reply was that he couldn't prove his theory at the present time but as the years go on it will become apparent.
I asked him if there was a way that I could prove that he was wrong ( already having an idea in my mind ), to which he answered, well we don't have a Lotto history anywhere in the world with say a million draws to compare it to.
I asked him if he agreed that the Lotto was not fixed and that the balls drawn are indeed random, to which he replied yes.
I asked him that if I was to write a random Lotto generator to produce say a few million draws would he accept the results. He was quite happy for me to do this and said that he would accept whatever the results turned out to be and looked forward to getting an appology from me.
Well, I did just that, I ran 96,153.85 years worth of draws at two draws a week, this equates to 10,000,000 draws in total.
For anybody who is interested here are the results for numbers 01-49 and the total times each of them were drawn along with their percentage.

01 = 1,223,521 times = 2.0392 %
02 = 1,224,769 times = 2.0413 %
03 = 1,224,496 times = 2.0408 %
04 = 1,223,955 times = 2.0399 %
05 = 1,224,583 times = 2.0410 %
06 = 1,224,050 times = 2.0401 %
07 = 1,223,442 times = 2.0391 %
08 = 1,224,451 times = 2.0408 %
09 = 1,223,016 times = 2.0384 %
10 = 1,225,382 times = 2.0423 %
11 = 1,225,327 times = 2.0422 %
12 = 1,223,556 times = 2.0393 %
13 = 1,224,099 times = 2.0402 %
14 = 1,224,772 times = 2.0413 %
15 = 1,223,114 times = 2.0385 %
16 = 1,224,069 times = 2.0401 %
17 = 1,223,320 times = 2.0389 %
18 = 1,224,877 times = 2.0415 %
19 = 1,224,938 times = 2.0416 %
20 = 1,226,040 times = 2.0434 %
21 = 1,224,753 times = 2.0413 %
22 = 1,224,595 times = 2.0410 %
23 = 1,225,402 times = 2.0423 %
24 = 1,223,189 times = 2.0386 %
25 = 1,224,209 times = 2.0403 %
26 = 1,224,539 times = 2.0409 %
27 = 1,224,241 times = 2.0404 %
28 = 1,225,445 times = 2.0424 %
29 = 1,224,122 times = 2.0402 %
30 = 1,225,606 times = 2.0427 %
31 = 1,225,265 times = 2.0421 %
32 = 1,224,187 times = 2.0403 %
33 = 1,225,957 times = 2.0433 %
34 = 1,224,666 times = 2.0411 %
35 = 1,224,318 times = 2.0405 %
36 = 1,223,865 times = 2.0398 %
37 = 1,225,707 times = 2.0428 %
38 = 1,224,472 times = 2.0408 %
39 = 1,223,366 times = 2.0389 %
40 = 1,224,523 times = 2.0409 %
41 = 1,225,011 times = 2.0417 %
42 = 1,224,795 times = 2.0413 %
43 = 1,224,297 times = 2.0405 %
44 = 1,224,376 times = 2.0406 %
45 = 1,224,275 times = 2.0405 %
46 = 1,225,230 times = 2.0421 %
47 = 1,225,094 times = 2.0418 %
48 = 1,223,654 times = 2.0394 %
49 = 1,225,064 times = 2.0418 %

Total = 10,000,000 draws = 100.0000 %

I won't be seeing him for a while .
I love it when a plan comes together.

Regards,
PAB


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12:45, restate my assumptions.
(1) Mathematics is the language of nature.
(2) Everything around us can be represented and understood through numbers.
(3) If you graph the numbers of any system, patterns emerge. Therefore, there are patterns, everywhere in nature.

 

[Icewynd]

Well done PAB. Remind me to have all my facts together if I'm going to argue with YOU!!!

Hopefully he didn't try to claim he was right because there were a few measly hundreds different in the counts. Although any arguement that depends on the third decimal place for support is just a *bit* weak.

Methinks he owes you a beer.

 

[PAB]

Thanks Icewynd,

Hopefully he didn't try to claim he was right because there were a few measly hundreds different in the counts. Although any arguement that depends on the third decimal place for support is just a *bit* weak.

Fortunately, I don't have a lot to do with him, he is one of these what I call know it alls with a bad attitude to boot. He has never been wrong in his life and nobody knows what they are talking about, you get the idea!

I did actually run five sets of 10,000,000 randomly generated draws and the results for each were virtually identical, give or take a few here and there. I just thought I would post the last set of the five.
I must admit, I was quite surprised at the closeness of the tests...

The MINIMUM value being 1,223,016
The MAXIMUM value being 1,226,040
The RANGE from MINIMUM to MAXIMUM value = 3,024

Regards,
PAB


-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-
12:45, restate my assumptions.
(1) Mathematics is the language of nature.
(2) Everything around us can be represented and understood through numbers.
(3) If you graph the numbers of any system, patterns emerge. Therefore, there are patterns, everywhere in nature.

 

[Icewynd]

I must admit, I was quite surprised at the closeness of the tests...

The MINIMUM value being 1,223,016
The MAXIMUM value being 1,226,040
The RANGE from MINIMUM to MAXIMUM value = 3,024
[/COLOR]

Yes, I was also surprised. Sometimes we focus too much on something that is temporarily out of whack, but obviously everything smooths out in the long run. An interesting analysis.

 

[PAB]

Thanks Icewynd,

Sometimes we focus too much on something that is temporarily out of whack, but obviously everything smooths out in the long run.

Exactly, very well put.

Regards,
PAB


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12:45, restate my assumptions.
(1) Mathematics is the language of nature.
(2) Everything around us can be represented and understood through numbers.
(3) If you graph the numbers of any system, patterns emerge. Therefore, there are patterns, everywhere in nature.

 

[Frank]

Ermm.. There are two ways of interpreting those results. Of course you are right because you've proved that over ten million draws each ball has been drawn an equal number of times. However, over the course of time some of those numbers had been drawn less times than others, so you proved that eventually they caught up with the others. Isn't that exactly what your aquaintance was saying ? The problem with his theory is that they do catch up over statistically long timescales such as 96,000 years so backing the cold numbers only works if you live that long! Of course you would also have to pick the right 6 laggards from a large pool constantly changing and thats another story. He was kinda right, but the method is totally impractical unless your name is Methusela.

PS If the UK lotto gets to draw 4404 without a set of 6 main balls repeating then there will be a 50% chance of one of those 4404 results repeating. http://www.lottoforums.com/lottery/anything-goes/12108-repeat-combination-soon-your-neighborhood.html (the last post)

I make that odds of 8808 to 1 of a jackpot win if you choose an old result. Thats the theory, but you might have to wait another 2000 draws for it to happen. Once it does happen, that statistic can't be used again. Damn statistics!

 

[PAB]

Hi Frank,

He was kinda right, but the method is totally impractical unless your name is Methusela.

You never know, his Dad's name might be Enoch and he might have a Grandson named Noah .

PS, If the UK lotto gets to draw 4,404 without a set of 6 main balls repeating then there will be a 50% chance of one of those 4,404 results repeating. http://www.lottoforums.com/lottery/anything-goes/12108-repeat-combination-soon-your-neighborhood.html (the last post).

I make that odds of 8,808 to 1 of a jackpot win if you choose an old result. Thats the theory, but you might have to wait another 2,000 draws for it to happen. Once it does happen, that statistic can't be used again. Damn statistics!

I read the article on the Birthday scenario, very interesting.
Well, draw 4,404, assuming that the Lotto carries on at two draws a week with the same format as at present will make it Saturday the 6th of March 2038 for the UK main Lotto draw.

I might have an extra ticket for draw 4,405 if I am still around .

Regards,
PAB


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12:45, restate my assumptions.
(1) Mathematics is the language of nature.
(2) Everything around us can be represented and understood through numbers.
(3) If you graph the numbers of any system, patterns emerge. Therefore, there are patterns, everywhere in nature.

 

[Frank]

Well I'm not expecting to be around, I'd be 91 - anyway I'm not expecting the lotto to be around in its current form either. They would have to change something to stop the rot after the ticket price doubles so maybe it will be 6/45 and £10 a ticket by then. Not that £10 will be much in 2038, perhaps enough for a pint and a bag of crisps (potato chips).

 

[PAB]

Hi Frank,

...I'm not expecting the lotto to be around in its current form either. They would have to change something to stop the rot after the ticket price doubles so maybe it will be 6/45 and £10 a ticket by then. Not that £10 will be much in 2038...

Yes, we won't know what the aftermath of the price increase will actually be for a while yet. As I have previously proclaimed, I don't think they have fully thought it through, but saying that, only time will tell.
As you and I have discussed previously Frank, I think that the Lotto players money will be invested in an alternative Lotto such as ThunderBall as opposed to the Main UK Lotto, until that is, they decide to increase that too!

Regards,
PAB


-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-
12:45, restate my assumptions.
(1) Mathematics is the language of nature.
(2) Everything around us can be represented and understood through numbers.
(3) If you graph the numbers of any system, patterns emerge. Therefore, there are patterns, everywhere in nature.

 

[Frank]

I dare say many of us will have had conversations with people who were convinced they were on to something with a system they have, and like you PAB I eventually resort to Excel to try and settle it. Every week or so I would be shown how close he came to a big win with his system. He recently won match four plus the bonus ball and would have got match 5 plus bb had he chose differently from his reduced set, which by the way never change, so I know what they are. In that particular week there were no prize winners of match 5 plus bb, he would have won £708,702. No spreadsheet results will convince him that the lottery is random! I've tried several times.

 

[PAB]

Hi Frank,

I dare say many of us will have had conversations with people who were convinced they were on to something with a system they have, and like you PAB I eventually resort to Excel to try and settle it. Every week or so I would be shown how close he came to a big win with his system. He recently won match four plus the bonus ball and would have got match 5 plus bb had he chose differently from his reduced set, which by the way never change, so I know what they are. In that particular week there were no prize winners of match 5 plus bb, he would have won £708,702. No spreadsheet results will convince him that the lottery is random! I've tried several times.

I have got the T-Shirt for that one Frank .

Regards,
PAB


-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-
12:45, restate my assumptions.
(1) Mathematics is the language of nature.
(2) Everything around us can be represented and understood through numbers.
(3) If you graph the numbers of any system, patterns emerge. Therefore, there are patterns, everywhere in nature.