UK 659 first cycle end

[Frank]

Well at long last number 45 has been drawn for the first time since the 659 started, completing the first cycle of drawings. In all it took 66 draws for the cycle to complete. I was starting to get worried since my trials over 162 test cycles showed that the maximum cycle length over the 6000 draws tested was 68 draws compared with the average of 37. The wait time since the penultimate ball was drawn was 28 draws. In the same cycle period , number 14 ball was drawn 15 times!

 

[Icewynd]

66 draws is long -- the next cycle should be closer to the average of 37, say 30-40 draws. Time will tell.

Hope you've been playing the 14!

Good Luck!

 

[jack]

Hello Frank, simulating many sweepstakes is possible and enumerating in each line within cycle
Example 1 in the simulation cycle in line 4 had the numbers 05 15 26
In the 2nd cycle in line 4 had not 05 15 26
You have to number the lines within each cycle, so can eleminar the curve of each cycle, eg = seems that your lottery is new, will have simulate a 6000 sweepstakes
After starting the last cycle to see how much cycles to eliminate figures
Since there repeated from cycle to cycle on lines
Eg if the number 05 has on line 4 in the other following cycles not given in line 4
It is a way to control the disposal, you may have to wait for the right time
Or near it and play various draws,

 

[TheConcept]

...In all it took 66 draws for the cycle to complete...

Hi Frank.

From memory, when I was looking at the National Lottery when it was 49 balls, the longest run I had was 73 draws between successive appearances of a number.

I did a quick calculation of what the expected longest draw should be for the 6/59 lottery, based on the odds:

(43/49)^72 x 6/49 = (53/59)^n x 6/59, where n is the expected longest draw. I have to solve for n. I get 85.96102..., so 86 draws where a number may not potentially occur (i.e. 87 draws between appearances). Compared with this, 66, although long is someway off.

I must admit however that 66 draws is a long one for the first completion. It doesn't bode well for applying any kind of statistics calculations...

 

[Frank]

Your memory serves you well, it was number 17 missing for 73 draws. Well the longest I got on test for 659 over 6000 draws was a 68 draw cycle. However, as we discussed earlier, it depends where you choose to begin cycle counting from, the figures obtained for a whole 59 ball set will differ from each possible start point. I must admit I did not vary my starting points when I did my trial, so it is possible I was out of sync with a higher individual ball cycle length, and the 649 knowledge should have made me look closer into this. I would agree that with such a high possible maxima, predicting a cycle end using statistics is unlikely to be successful, and even if it were, would most likely only predict one ball. Shame.