bloubul said:
Hi TheConcept
Can you please explain"
I set up an 8 level Martingale system, which never lost, in the six months" ,yes I'm interested in it, also your probability calculations, do you do it in excel??
BlouBul
Sure, no problem.
Bet365 give odds of 5/6 for the first ball drawn being odd. If I stake £1, I need to stake £1 x 6/5, i.e £1.20 to recover it. From here on in, I’ll use 1.2 instead of 6/5, and ^ is ‘to the power of’
1st stake: £1. That loses
2nd stake: To recover the £1, I have to bet £1 x 1.2 = £1.20 (£1.20 x 5/6 = £1). That loses. Total spent = £1 + £1.20 = £2.20 (2.2 ^ 1)
3rd stake: To recover the £2.20, I have to bet £2.20 x 1.2 = £2.64. That loses. Total spent = £2.20 + £2.64 = £4.84 (2.2 ^ 2)
4th stake: To recover the £4.84, I have to bet £4.84 x 1.2 = £5.81 (5.808). That loses. Total spent = £4.84 + 5.81 = £10.65. (2.2 ^ 3)
…
There are a couple of patterns that I spotted at the time.
The total amount spent after each stake (assuming a £1 starting stake) is 2.2^(n-1), where n is the stake number (1=first, 2=second, etc)
From the second stake onwards, the stake = 2.2^(n-2) x 1.2, where n is the stake number, as before.
For 8 evens in a row, the winning bet will occur on the 9th bet, so the total budget needed is 2.2 ^ 8 = £548.76!! (worse than the £377 figure I quoted in my previous post, which was what I thought it was, off the top of my head).
As you can see, this is very prohibitive! I ran with it initially because sometimes you could get streaks of several odds in a row, and I would risk a little by putting all the winnings from one bet onto the next three or four times in a row, then do half of the winnings towards the next. All in all, it meant logging in every day, and I nearly got burnt when I couldn’t log in a couple of times (fortunately, first ball drawn was even!).
So I switched to a system where I would wait for 2-3 evens in a row, then play. If, say there have been three evens on a row, and my first stake is the same as what I would stake if I had started from the beginning, then I would effectively win the total amount I hadn’t staked. For example:
£4.84 is the total amount spent after three losing stakes if I started with £1. If I start with £5.81 and carry on, then when the stake eventually wins, I would win £4.84. This turned out to be the most practical system. Although the winnings weren’t as big, I didn’t have to be playing every day as I would have to wait for e.g. three evens in a row. If I was expecting a long streak of evens, then I could risk waiting for four or five evens in a row. I don’t recall getting close to 8 evens in a row
Because I had worked out the formulae, any spreadsheet worked (I was using Microsoft Works at the time!)
There may be something here that someone can work with. I’ll be happy to answer any questions.
Incidentally, one poster gave me a link to all the 49’s draws, on another thread. I was curious to see what the longest run of evens in a row was. There have been 8 8’s in a row, 3 9’s, 1 10’s and 1 11’s, for all the lunchtime draws.