skips and time intervals
- Thread starter larbec
- Start date
This is for the Power Ball. All you need to do is put the numbers in the colored cells in M, make sure your cursor is in the cell and click the button "Jackpot" You also need to make sure you keep the last draw on row 3 or it will not work. Just take whatever game(s) you play and paste the draw numbers over the PB numbers
https://www.mediafire.com/?k3i37tj6xelol88
Good Luck!
https://www.mediafire.com/?k3i37tj6xelol88
Good Luck!
Frank
Member
Icewynd said:
doug_w said:
I'm not surprised that there is a delay in answering Dougs question, its because it is difficult to explain, and there are conditions which might change the figures depending on what you measure and what you want as an output.doug_w said:
The simple answer is that you can either:-
1. Work it out using a spreadsheet using theory, or
2. You can have a counting mechanism that counts all the skips of all the balls including bonus in real time and lists current values of skip against each result as it happens, then seperately one can count how many of each value of skip occurs in history and express it as a percentage of all the skips.
Add up all the skip percentages in the range 0 to 5, making say X%, add up all in the range 6 to 11 making Y% etc.
If one line of 7 balls were 100% of a possible result then X% times 7 is the average number of balls in the line up whose skip is in the range 0 to 5. Y% times 7 is the average number of balls in the line up whose skip is in the range 6 to 11.... and so on for the other skip groups.
You will notice that Icewynds figures add up to 6 not 7, whilst I'm sure the analysis was over all 7 balls - so a decision has been taken to proportion the result over 6 balls not 7. One of those six could be a bonus ball since There are six possible lines of 6 from 7.
This is where it gets confusing because you can generate 3 different sets of figures for a 6/49 lottery depending on what you as an analyst want to know as an output.
1 .. You analyse all 7 balls, count up ALL the skips including bonus balls and get the proportions for a 7 ball line up.
2... Using the above analysis for 7 balls you infer what it would be for a 6 ball line up by simple proportion.
3... You know that you are ony interested in MAIN balls, so you do not track bonus balls at all, just the first 6 main balls. This is an entirely different statistic, different probabilities, longer average skip. The percentages you get for a 6 ball result will differ from those on result 2.
Icewynds figures are of type 2, taken from a 7 ball analysis, proportioned for 6 balls. I agree with those figures both actually and theoretically for that type of analysis.
The best way to make sense of this is to see it in action on a theoretical spreadsheet, which I just happen to have created.
http://www.mediafire.com/view/09do1jly1j9297o/Theoretical_skips_for_common_Lotteries.xls
You need to set up the parameters of the lottery - as it works for a range of lottery matrices, but only those with a single (or no) bonus ball selected from the same machine as the rest.
So for an analysis of all 7 balls of a 6/49 plus bb game the setting is 7 balls from 49 ..."has bonus ball".
The output result(s) are in columns O or P depending on what you want. With these settings Icewynds figures are in column P.
If you switch to "no bonus ball counted" , only column O is visible showing how the proportions span all 7 balls.
For pure main ball analysis, then settings 6 balls from 49 "no bonus ball counted" will give figures which favour longer skips, as the average skip is now 7.167 for main balls only. This would modify Icewynds figures to:-
3.260 numbers have a skip of 5 or lower
1.314 numbers will have a skip of 6-10
0.684 numbers will have a skip of 11-15
0.742 numbers will have a skip of 16 or higher.
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6.000
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In case you were wondering, the probabilty of a skip (s) is (1- (c/n))^(s+1) where c is balls drawn and n is how many in the drum.
On the next sheet of the spreadsheet are Actual measured figures for Canadian and UK lotteries along with the theoretical values. You will note that there are three sets of figures corresponding to type 1,2,or 3 both for actuals and for theoretical values, they agree pretty well.
There is an examples sheet with other lotteries which may be of interest. The Irish Lotto is included.
Thats enough to be going on with. I think that answers Dougs question.
Frank
Member
I trust that the 32 people who have downloaded this spreadsheet so far found it useful. Am I going to have to imagine this, or is someone going to actually acknowlege that they have downloaded it and tell me either that they haven't a clue what it is doing or that they now understand where the figures came from ?
sangoma123
Member
Frank,Thanks for the Spreadsheet!!.
Regards
Regards
Frank
Member
Icewynd said:Based on my experience...Don't hold your breath!
Good Luck!
Based on my past experience too, but in this new spirit of sharing initiated by Doug, I thought some people may be reformed characters. Silence is not golden when you share programs. You need to know your hard work has not fallen on stony ground !
Thanks to people who have responded already.
Frank
Member
Well here lies the wisdom in giving feedbacklarbec said:
, because as a result of Larbeck's question I have found an error in two formulas which would give incorrect results for any lottery other than 6 or 7/49.The formulas in cells D12 and D13 use the number 49 in their calculations. In order to make it fully adaptable for other lotteries I should have used $G$10 instead of 49 in those formulas. You need to correct this first.
I have amended those cells and increased the number of skips on the uploaded file, so it should be correct for new downloads. 54 people , note the above.
This spreadsheet is normally only suitable where all the balls are drawn from the same pool. So for Megamillions you either have to ignore the other drawing from 15 balls or treat it as though it were a separate lottery.
In the yellow boxes enter 5 and 75 and select " no bonus ball counted". This gives the skip statistics for the five main balls.
If you also want to do the 1-15 part then just use 1 and 15 " no bonus ball counted" for the skip statistic on this as a separate analysis. You should note that with only one ball drawn you can't have spreads across one ball, so take the percentage figures and think "percent of the time".
Frank
Member
You do not say whether there are supplementary balls so I assume there are none. I assume that only 6 balls are drawn from a pool of 60. That's easy. just enter 6 and 60 and "no bonus ball counted"jack said:
you should get spread across a 6 ball result on average ...
2.81 within skip range 0 to 5
1.30 within skip range 6 to 10
0.77 within skip range 11 to 15
1.11 within skip range 16 and above
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6.00 balls
Hello, frank, very good work, in my lottery 60/6
At least one delta value is much higher, being up to 60 numbers
Frank. In another planilia can create the 1st delta value and the last number That is the value of the extremities in 01 and 60 have two Hi is the beginning of the delta values and the end of the draw relative to the beginning of the boundary limit 01 and the end 60 Example = 12,15,23,35,45,51 delta value is beginning is 11 (01 -12) and the final 51-60 = 9) So this new plnailia only two early delta values and order so we have a reference, the beginning and the end
At least one delta value is much higher, being up to 60 numbers
Frank. In another planilia can create the 1st delta value and the last number That is the value of the extremities in 01 and 60 have two Hi is the beginning of the delta values and the end of the draw relative to the beginning of the boundary limit 01 and the end 60 Example = 12,15,23,35,45,51 delta value is beginning is 11 (01 -12) and the final 51-60 = 9) So this new plnailia only two early delta values and order so we have a reference, the beginning and the end
Hello Frank, you can increase the delta value limit to 25 or 30, because as the size of the lottery, in my case is 60/6 There are always one or two positions worth more than 15 frank you did the values horizontally can do in the vertical position for each, ie each number will have two Walloons in delta (L)
Hello,FRANK, in this example, O1º number and the last number of the draw will be
* In a study (ie double the edges example 49/6 or 60/6 .... etc ..)
Example 49/6 12 xxxx45 to study = 12.45
* Salto end 01-12 = jump or difference 11 45- 60 = jump or difference 15
* Well I can get 01-15 for the number 1 and 34-49 the last number
Giving the ends 235 diplas
* 01 xxxx = 34
01 xxxx = 35
..... 24xxxx49 full 325 double numbers
Where xxxx = 4 and remaining numbers to be placed within the confines of the dual
* In a study (ie double the edges example 49/6 or 60/6 .... etc ..)
Example 49/6 12 xxxx45 to study = 12.45
* Salto end 01-12 = jump or difference 11 45- 60 = jump or difference 15
* Well I can get 01-15 for the number 1 and 34-49 the last number
Giving the ends 235 diplas
* 01 xxxx = 34
01 xxxx = 35
..... 24xxxx49 full 325 double numbers
Where xxxx = 4 and remaining numbers to be placed within the confines of the dual