Sangoma-number divination

[Springbok]

Hi Patrick123
I am going to delay forecasting low skip numbers for the next draw for a little while. Got to improve the n+ 4 scenario to get closer to 100%. Will give the set up I described in the previous post a few public trials. Also one can think of reducing the history to catch short term trends. But let's try altering one variable at a time. Might not reach 100% but can try for 99.9%. When you are going full bore in the 6/49 game you only need to hit it once.

 

[Patrick123]

Hi Excellence,
As Springbok said in his post # 19:

I advise people not to use these forecasts for betting as they are experimental.

Thanks for the well wishes, we hope it's going to develop a much more than it's current status.

Hi Springbok,

I'm just trying to get into wraps with what you said. The way I see it, Charlie #7 reached a skip of 8 6 times but only turned around once, skip #9. The 2 skips of 10 cannot be counted as Charlie #7 did not turn. Thus it's probability should rather be (number of Skip 9) divided by (total number of skips of 9 and above) which equates to 1/3 = 33.3%. Skip # 8 does not come into the probability equation anymore as it has been reached.

Regards
Patrick

 

[Patrick123]

Hi Springbok,
In fact I even want to dispute my above formula. Since Charlie #7 is reaching skip 9, the correct formula should then boil down to:
Current Skip = n = 8
Next skip = s = 9

((Number of n ) +(Number of s +1)) / ( total number skips >= n +1)

thus we get
5/7= 71%

With Delta 3 = 87%
and Delta 7 = 80%
Regards
Patrick

 

[Patrick123]

((Number of n ) +(Number of s +1)) / ( total number skips >= n +1)

Should read ((Number of n ) +(Number of s) +1) / ( total number skips >= n +1)

Regards
Patrick

 

[Springbok]

8 8 8 9 10 10
Check the skips. Charlie7 at the moment is on skip 8. We freeze time. Looking back at the history It hit 6 times with a skip of 8. 3 times it went over hitting with skips higher than 8 3 times before turning. If It hits tomorrow ...... Hang on there let me check how these skips are reported in the reports. then I will get back.

 

[Excellence]

Good evening gentlemen. I believe that Springbok calculated the probability correct.
Skip = 8 in Charlie#7 represents the number of trials in witch Charlie#7 did not appear. If it would appear in the next draw we stop counting at the value of 8, because there where 8 draws between two hits. Therefore the formula is:
Number of n / (Number of n) + (Number of n+1) + (Number of n+2)+ … + (Number of n+x) where:
n = current skip
x = H - n

 

[Patrick123]

Yes, thank you both, I see the error in my ways, Charlie7 is already being reported at skip 8, so my calculation is incorrect and you are right. Thanks for clarifying it for me.

 

[Springbok]

OK I am back. For a moment i was feeling deurmekaar on your last comment. I went to check the reporting of the skip report. What I did is I inserted a dummy line containing 7(this is in the charlie report of course). I ran the stats programme and checked the reporting. the last report read---0, 8 and so on.
8 8 8 9 10 10
We go back to the above report. You see three eights. So 3 times when it struck 8 it reversed and hit in the next draw. Three times it went over eight. It went to 9 and reversed. It went twice to 10 and reversed. So 6 times it hit 8, 3 times it reversed in the very next draw and three times it carried on for another draw or so and then reversed. On those 6 occurences, half the time it reversed. So we say at this stage charlie7 has a 50% chance of hitting in the next draw.Remember the report is in sorted skips.

 

[Springbok]

Oops, I did not see the previous post when I wrote this.

 

[Patrick123]

Ok I've uploaded the updated program, where I've only modified the Ball Analysis/Draw probability screen to include the % probabilities. What I do, is to set Alpha, Beta and Delta to a value of 2 so that on the probabilities screen, I'm looking at a summary of 3 times 50 sets of pairs, the balls that reflect a relatively similar value for all three, are the ones to concentrate on.

The Alpha, Beta or Delta value, is actually a count, how many times the N+4 >= H criteria was met in the Max Alpha number of sets. The higher this value with a high %, is an even better confidence indicator.

Regards
Patrick

 

[Springbok]

Here is an interesting scenario. according to the new formula it should have a 100% chance of hitting lunchtime today. But I would be hesitant in relying on it. I would prefer to give a number pair a little bit of slack. It is testing its 200 draw high. Will it breach it or will it reverse? Difficult to say. I got a gut feel it will run free and run wild and breach its upper resistance skip. All number pairs occassionaly breach through their restraints and run free.


* zulu # 13 * Hits: 54 {10, 25}
------------------------
* Skips >>>>> 9 8 0 1 3 2 4 1 2 4 3 0 0 7 2 9 9 1 6 2 0 7 0 6 1 0 3 0 1 0 6 2 6 1 1 1 4 0 7 0 2 2 4 0 4 2 2 2 2 0 2 0 4 0

* Sorted Skips: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 9

** Skip Median: 2

 

[Patrick123]

Hi Springbok,
I agree it is a bit of a difficult one to analyse. Where it would not be advantageous, is if you had other pairings similar to this that had one of these numbers in it to be able to get more of a feel.

Now we can!

I've uploaded the new program. On Drawing probability, you can select the alpha, beta or delta number, right click on it and drill down to the next level, where you can analyse similar situations for the actual number. You are then able to drill down to the base level.

Regards
Patrick

 

[Springbok]

hello Excellence
You are quite right as all systems can be improved. The latest Eurofighter(Typhoon) is a little bit better than the Sopwith Camel of WW1. Any system we devise we have to test and get feedback and make adjustments. No system fails as they only provide feedback. Dealing with what is termed random numbers is a tough assignment but I would rather bet on a field of 24 "random" number pairs than 24 horses in a race if I wanted to profit.

 

[Springbok]

Great stuff Patrick123. I will be taking a look at the new uploaded programme. Have you thought that with all the ideas presented here the fellows who produce lottery software commercially will be scanning this thread hoping to improve the crap(kak) they produce Guaranteed you will see these ideas in forthcoming software.

 

[Patrick123]

Hi Springbok, I agree, plenty of them would be scanning this thread. Originally when I decided to start writing a Lotto program, I took the attitude: 'Oh well, if I don't make money winning the Lotto with this program, it's not working, but I'll make money selling the program.' and that is most probably what they are doing.

Regards
Patrick

 

[Springbok]

Well much to my surprise zulu13 {16. 25} did what its history was telling us and hit lunchtime.

 

[Patrick123]

Congrats, I hope you made a bit of money from it. If I may ask, which lotto( and drawings history) are you using so that I may add it into my test bed.

The reason why I ask, is that that the other lottos move so slowly(once maybe twice a week) that even though you have the draw history, one tends to 'peek' at the answers and you end up with a biased result.

Regards
Patrick

 

[Springbok]

I use the 49s. It is the bookies lottery in the UK. It is held twice a day. Get history from blue square and update from win-on-numbers.com There are 14 draws a week so it is fast moving. it is an excellent test bed for ideas.

 

[Springbok]

Well ,round 1 of n+4(mark 2) ended 2nd draw today as delta3 hit(16). It has a probability of around 71%. One of the second favourites, delta7 sneaked in at the first draw. But we are only going for the highest rated. I think by now it should have penetrated by now even to the least intelligent reader that the history of the skips tend to be rather important in predicting future happenings. Ignore them at your peril. Of course it would make no difference to the wheelers as they would lose in any case.

 

[Springbok]

For Thursday, we have 2 strong candidates. I would go for kilo23 as it has 100% probability. I remembered what zulu13 did yesterday with the same skip formation.

* omega # 16 * Hits: 58 {31, 32}
------------------------
* Skips >>>>> 9 0 2 3 7 1 3 2 3 0 1 0 2 0 7 0 3 0 2 1 0 0 0 2 3 5 1 0 8 6 1 6 2 1 0 0 5 1 0 0 0 7 0 3 1 7 0 8 1 0 4 5 5 3 0 1 7 3 * Sorted Skips: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 ** Skip Median: 1

* kilo # 23 * Hits: 58 {29, 31}
------------------------
* Skips >>>>> 10 4 1 8 0 3 2 3 3 3 7 4 0 0 1 1 0 0 10 1 2 0 1 6 0 1 1 3 0 1 1 3 2 0 6 2 1 3 3 0 3 1 2 4 10 1 3 0 5 4 0 1 1 0 1 4 2 3 * Sorted Skips: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 8 10 10 10 ** Skip Median: 2