Reluctance To Share
- Thread starter doug_w
- Start date
Well, I'm not sure that it is just limited to this forum, but yes. This seems to be a place where people come to find ideas and mine the wonderful archives for what is there, but never reveal their presence or share their own ideas.
It makes me sad, really. I have gotten many good ideas for lotto analysis which build on an idea or a comment by another poster. And I have posted those ideas, only to find that the original poster doesn't want to continue the conversation.
Many people believe that if they talk about what they are doing, someone else will use their idea and "steal" their jackpot. I have detailed before why I find this way of thinking absurd. If I post an idea it first has to be read and (more importantly) understood by another forum member, then (big IF here) they have to actually implement my idea and (another big IF) do it exactly as I intended, and then they have to apply the concept to a database that is very similar to mine and buy a ticket for the same lottery in the same country as I do. If all this comes to pass we might split a jackpot, but the odds are astronomical.
But, I've never seen any proof that the lurkers were convinced by this argument!
Good luck!
It makes me sad, really. I have gotten many good ideas for lotto analysis which build on an idea or a comment by another poster. And I have posted those ideas, only to find that the original poster doesn't want to continue the conversation.
Many people believe that if they talk about what they are doing, someone else will use their idea and "steal" their jackpot. I have detailed before why I find this way of thinking absurd. If I post an idea it first has to be read and (more importantly) understood by another forum member, then (big IF here) they have to actually implement my idea and (another big IF) do it exactly as I intended, and then they have to apply the concept to a database that is very similar to mine and buy a ticket for the same lottery in the same country as I do. If all this comes to pass we might split a jackpot, but the odds are astronomical.
But, I've never seen any proof that the lurkers were convinced by this argument!
Good luck!
Hi Icewynd
I have downloaded and tested in demo mode many of the software products out there covering the analysis of lotto results. Each has had good and bad points, but from further investigation into the bad points I have found better ways and ideas that have improved what they had. There is no one program out there that has truly got everything you need.
From reading old threads in this forum have also yielded more ideas on ways and means of doing things.
I am more than willing to discuss with anyone, any and all ideas that I have, and the different approaches I have taken to try cut down the number of balls to select from in the next draw. I know you are using Excel for your analysis and I have written mine in Visual Basic, but my thoughts and ideas can be easily transferable I am sure.
Some of the wonderful postings Frank has done, I have completed the Excel exercises mainly to comprehend his ideas and thoughts and to see if I can offer up any ideas that I may gain from the experiences.
Even after we have got all the results into our systems and have manipulated them we will still interpret the results differently to others.
Must admit joining the Forum as a Member in the first place was not easy as Registration had been closed. I sent email to the moderator to ask if I could join.
I have downloaded and tested in demo mode many of the software products out there covering the analysis of lotto results. Each has had good and bad points, but from further investigation into the bad points I have found better ways and ideas that have improved what they had. There is no one program out there that has truly got everything you need.
From reading old threads in this forum have also yielded more ideas on ways and means of doing things.
I am more than willing to discuss with anyone, any and all ideas that I have, and the different approaches I have taken to try cut down the number of balls to select from in the next draw. I know you are using Excel for your analysis and I have written mine in Visual Basic, but my thoughts and ideas can be easily transferable I am sure.
Some of the wonderful postings Frank has done, I have completed the Excel exercises mainly to comprehend his ideas and thoughts and to see if I can offer up any ideas that I may gain from the experiences.
Even after we have got all the results into our systems and have manipulated them we will still interpret the results differently to others.
Must admit joining the Forum as a Member in the first place was not easy as Registration had been closed. I sent email to the moderator to ask if I could join.
TheConcept
Member
I will never mind sharing my ideas because I have Ion Saliu to thank for him sharing his ideas for free on his site(*1). Understanding his fundamental formula of gambling was the starting-point, although I use a variation of it, in that whatever event I'm looking at, I work out the probability of it being 50% (what he refers to as the median), and then look to see if the results consistently better this, or not.Icewynd said:
The problem I've been finding to date is that having tried several methods in the past, once I start testing them over a long period of draws, the results always end up fitting (or being worse than the calculated probabilities).
To summarize where I'm at now: I'm looking at the Irish Lottery, looking at only the numbers with a skip of 1 to 4 (4 being the median). The expected number of balls in each skip are
Skip 1: 7 (the last draw)
Skip 2: 6
Skip 3: 5
Skip 4: 4
I'm intending to investigate if e.g. skip 2 has 7 balls, rather than six, should I play doubles (21 permutations, bookmakers e.g. Ladbrokes pay 35/1 for a double).
I'm also going to look at the numbers that do occur in skips 1-4 and see if there are any patterns (e.g. one low (1-22) one high (23-45), or 1 even, 1 odd, or 1 that previously occurred within the last four draws, and one that didn't.
(*1)http://saliu.com/LottoWin.htm
Yes! Ion Saliu and his FFG were my early teachers on serious lottery analysis!
The Median, or as some call it the Probability Median (PM) is the number of skips below which 50% of hits happen. These are always the tightest and easiest to predict hits, often happening at skip 1 or 2 for groups of numbers (eg. decades, playslip rows, etc.).
My lotto play now revolves in large part in trying to decide if a given indicator will hit above or below its PM, or what mix of PM's will be seen in 6 numbers (e.g. above, below, below, below, above, below) and then picking numbers to match those predictions.
BTW, 4 is the PM for number skips for my Canadian 6/49 lottery. I'm guessing the Irish Lotto is also this configuration?
Good luck!
The Median, or as some call it the Probability Median (PM) is the number of skips below which 50% of hits happen. These are always the tightest and easiest to predict hits, often happening at skip 1 or 2 for groups of numbers (eg. decades, playslip rows, etc.).
My lotto play now revolves in large part in trying to decide if a given indicator will hit above or below its PM, or what mix of PM's will be seen in 6 numbers (e.g. above, below, below, below, above, below) and then picking numbers to match those predictions.
BTW, 4 is the PM for number skips for my Canadian 6/49 lottery. I'm guessing the Irish Lotto is also this configuration?
Good luck!
TheConcept
Member
Hi Icewynd. No, the Irish Lotto (I'm including the bonus ball) is 7 drawn from 45.Icewynd said:
I think that in my previous post, I should have said skips 0-3 rather than 1-4. I've tended to start counting from 1 instead of 0 when doing the calculations, but I think I'll change that so it doesn't cause confusion. So the PM for number skips for the Irish Lottery, using 7 balls is 3.
Hey Icewynd, great post on sharing and so true so many ifs ... and for the vast majority of us, most threads are so hard to follow that the vast majority of us will never be able to follow. So many threads start at a point where ... at least I can't follow.
But I as well am more than willing to share what little I know. I'm still absorbing so much on this site, there's so much, but so hard to mine the nuggets. Frank is awesome, but 99% of the time I have no idea what he's talking about, or I follow the general jist but have no idea how to implement what he's talking about. I'm hoping just to get close to what so many of the old timers here can do.
But I as well am more than willing to share what little I know. I'm still absorbing so much on this site, there's so much, but so hard to mine the nuggets. Frank is awesome, but 99% of the time I have no idea what he's talking about, or I follow the general jist but have no idea how to implement what he's talking about. I'm hoping just to get close to what so many of the old timers here can do.
mabuse
Member
Hi all!
I think we should all remember that we here on this forum represent a very small minority of all the lottery players, so even if we share the "Holy Grail" of systems/strategies, and someone else applies them to the same game the "dangers" are still negligible.
So how do I play? Well: Here it is: I do a 47/6/2/2 wheel on the Irish Lottery at the bookmakers and that's it....that's my "secret"!
I've even tried to convert the guys at work, who have a syndicate for the regular UK lottery, to the Irish Lottery... not a chance!!! Not even after the price for their tickets had DOUBLED!!! Only last year they had a small win, £100 or so for 4 numbers, the first time in three years, and they "reinvested" the whole lot on Lucky Dips..... the result: NOTHING....ZERO....ZILCH!!!
Good luck everyone!
By the way: The Irish Lottery changed its format last September from 45 to 47 numbers.
I think we should all remember that we here on this forum represent a very small minority of all the lottery players, so even if we share the "Holy Grail" of systems/strategies, and someone else applies them to the same game the "dangers" are still negligible.
So how do I play? Well: Here it is: I do a 47/6/2/2 wheel on the Irish Lottery at the bookmakers and that's it....that's my "secret"!
I've even tried to convert the guys at work, who have a syndicate for the regular UK lottery, to the Irish Lottery... not a chance!!! Not even after the price for their tickets had DOUBLED!!! Only last year they had a small win, £100 or so for 4 numbers, the first time in three years, and they "reinvested" the whole lot on Lucky Dips..... the result: NOTHING....ZERO....ZILCH!!!
Good luck everyone!
By the way: The Irish Lottery changed its format last September from 45 to 47 numbers.
mabuse said:
I have said the same myself, Mabuse! The chances that someone could steal "your" jackpot are tiny.
First -- they have to read the post on this board
Second -- they have to play the same lottery game as you are playing, in the same country as you are living.
Third -- they have to use your method to pick exactly the same numbers as you are picking.
Fourth -- they have to stick with it, draw after draw.
But, lottery players seem to have a lot of irrational beliefs and fears, and this is obviously one of them!
Good Luck!
bloubul said:Mabuse
I'm not reluctant to share what I have, I can't steel any one's Jackpot as I'm in a different country and I only play at the Bookmakers and not at any vendor.
Yes I can play any Lotto/PowerBall any where in the world.
BlouBul
So how does that work? The agent buys a ticket and then, if you win, collects the money and charges a fee for that?
Good Luck!
No, Canada doesn't allow bookmakers. We have to play through our government lottery.
But, I'm wondering how a bookie can pay out a jackpot -- some of the big games have jackpots that get up into the multi-millions. Surely impossible for any but the largest corporations? Or do they only pay the lower-tier prizes?
Good Luck!
But, I'm wondering how a bookie can pay out a jackpot -- some of the big games have jackpots that get up into the multi-millions. Surely impossible for any but the largest corporations? Or do they only pay the lower-tier prizes?
Good Luck!
mabuse
Member
Icewynd said:
Hi Icewynd!
The bookmakers, i.e. the larger organisations like William Hill or Ladbrokes, have a cap on payouts. Their maximum is £1million for matching all 6 numbers for a 6/47 or 6/49. There are no rollovers!!!
As for the pick 3/match3, pick 4/match4: these bets only go as high as a pick5/match5.....a pick 6/match 6 isn't covered and no bets are accepted on this!
Also remember that when you play at the bookies, your bet is NOT with any of the National Lotteries you might buy tickets for....your bet is on the outcome of an event, for example the Irish, Spanish or even the New York Lotto.
And both William Hill and Ladbrokes are HUGE players in the betting world!!! Paying out £1million wouldn't hurt them too much!!!
