Re the 649 as a Random Walk/Brownian Motion model.
- Thread starter Fortune
- Start date
Random walk application for a lottery
I never really thought of this approach for a 6/49 lottery but it could be interesting. The problem I see in this is:
- in a random walk, you know that the next position will be one step away but in any given direction
- in a lottery, for each position of the winning numbers (N1 to N6), there are 3 possibilities for the next draw in most cases: higher number, lower number and same number; but the step itself (or difference between the two numbers) can vary quite a bit.
After checking data for the Canadian Lotto 6/49, for each position, the step could range from 0 (same number in the same position in consecutive draws) to a maximum value in the high 30s, with an average of about 7.8. The direction the next number will take is also quite dependent of the value of the number in the preceding draw.
I never really thought of this approach for a 6/49 lottery but it could be interesting. The problem I see in this is:
- in a random walk, you know that the next position will be one step away but in any given direction
- in a lottery, for each position of the winning numbers (N1 to N6), there are 3 possibilities for the next draw in most cases: higher number, lower number and same number; but the step itself (or difference between the two numbers) can vary quite a bit.
After checking data for the Canadian Lotto 6/49, for each position, the step could range from 0 (same number in the same position in consecutive draws) to a maximum value in the high 30s, with an average of about 7.8. The direction the next number will take is also quite dependent of the value of the number in the preceding draw.
Timmycard
Member
By adding the bell curve data and the positionnal grid hit/skips to this mix....you might be onto something that could increase a little bit the probabilities of hitting one or two more numbers from pick 6 games in some draws....but maybe only after many many draws...so nothing specific for .....lets say..... the very next future draw ...
This is random like it or not....
This is random like it or not....
therealpoorboy
Member
Random Walk/Brownian Motion model.
Fortune
Lottery Director (www.LDIR.com) lottery software provides some excellent anaylsis tools and combination generation tools, if you are a hardcore full wheel generator type of player.
You are able to create and filter based on positions N1,N2,N3,N4,N5,N6
Once you figure out the ranges.
I personally use 1-13, 3-24, 9-33, 18-41,27-46, 37-49 respectively as positional filters.
Which is effective 80% of the time
This in itself is a very very powerful filter.
Good Luck
Fortune
Lottery Director (www.LDIR.com) lottery software provides some excellent anaylsis tools and combination generation tools, if you are a hardcore full wheel generator type of player.
You are able to create and filter based on positions N1,N2,N3,N4,N5,N6
Once you figure out the ranges.
I personally use 1-13, 3-24, 9-33, 18-41,27-46, 37-49 respectively as positional filters.
Which is effective 80% of the time
This in itself is a very very powerful filter.
Good Luck
Positional filters
You are right with the figures you provide. Looking at each position, the ranges (like 1-13 as first number) cover most winning combinations individually. As a matter of fact, the 80% you quote is a little low; for the 6 positions, the ranges given individully account for 86.3% to 87.6% of the 2,599 winning combinations in Lotto 6/49.
Impressive but not fully representative of actual possibilities, since many of these values are mutually exclusive.
If you look at each winning combination and compare the actual numbers to the ranges given, you will find that only 1,376 draws out of 2,599 (or 52.9%) had all individual numbers within their respective ranges.
If you look for those combinations where 5 numbers are within the ranges given, this will add another 664 draws (or 25.5%).
So if you also look for either 5 or 6 wiinning numbers, the ranges you gave will be right in 78.5% of the draws. No, the sum given is not an error, it can be explained due to rounding to 1 decimal in each percentage. Still this is quite interesting.
And, finally, it is impossible to get a combination that has not at least one number in the 6 ranges you mention.
You are right with the figures you provide. Looking at each position, the ranges (like 1-13 as first number) cover most winning combinations individually. As a matter of fact, the 80% you quote is a little low; for the 6 positions, the ranges given individully account for 86.3% to 87.6% of the 2,599 winning combinations in Lotto 6/49.
Impressive but not fully representative of actual possibilities, since many of these values are mutually exclusive.
If you look at each winning combination and compare the actual numbers to the ranges given, you will find that only 1,376 draws out of 2,599 (or 52.9%) had all individual numbers within their respective ranges.
If you look for those combinations where 5 numbers are within the ranges given, this will add another 664 draws (or 25.5%).
So if you also look for either 5 or 6 wiinning numbers, the ranges you gave will be right in 78.5% of the draws. No, the sum given is not an error, it can be explained due to rounding to 1 decimal in each percentage. Still this is quite interesting.
And, finally, it is impossible to get a combination that has not at least one number in the 6 ranges you mention.
therealpoorboy
Member
Thank you GillesD
Thank you
Spoken like a true mathematician and statistician....with smattering of combinatorial and discrete mathematics.............
See you again one day at the prize payout counter........
Thank you
Spoken like a true mathematician and statistician....with smattering of combinatorial and discrete mathematics.............
See you again one day at the prize payout counter........
johnph77
Member
6/49 Position Frequency Chart
.............A........B........C........D........E........F....Total
.1.....1712304...............................................1712304
.2.....1533939...178365......................................1712304
.3.....1370754...326370....15180.............................1712304
.4.....1221759...446985....42570......990....................1712304
.5.....1086008...543004....79464.....3784.......44...........1712304
.6......962598...617050...123410.....9030......215........1..1712304
.7......850668...671580...172200....17220......630........6..1712304
.8......749398...708890...223860....28700.....1435.......21..1712304
.9......658008...731120...276640....43680.....2800.......56..1712304
10......575757...740259...329004....62244.....4914......126..1712304
11......501942...738150...379620....84360.....7980......252..1712304
12......435897...726495...427350...109890....12210......462..1712304
13......376992...706860...471240...138600....17820......792..1712304
14......324632...680680...510510...170170....25025.....1287..1712304
15......278256...649264...544544...204204....34034.....2002..1712304
16......237336...613800...572880...240240....45045.....3003..1712304
17......201376...575360...595200...277760....58240.....4368..1712304
18......169911...534905...611320...316200....73780.....6188..1712304
19......142506...493290...621180...354960....91800.....8568..1712304
20......118755...451269...624834...393414...112404....11628..1712304
21.......98280...409500...622440...430920...135660....15504..1712304
22.......80730...368550...614250...466830...161595....20349..1712304
23.......65780...328900...600600...500500...190190....26334..1712304
24.......53130...290950...581900...531300...221375....33649..1712304
25.......42504...255024...558624...558624...255024....42504..1712304
26.......33649...221375...531300...581900...290950....53130..1712304
27.......26334...190190...500500...600600...328900....65780..1712304
28.......20349...161595...466830...614250...368550....80730..1712304
29.......15504...135660...430920...622440...409500....98280..1712304
30.......11628...112404...393414...624834...451269...118755..1712304
31........8568....91800...354960...621180...493290...142506..1712304
32........6188....73780...316200...611320...534905...169911..1712304
33........4368....58240...277760...595200...575360...201376..1712304
34........3003....45045...240240...572880...613800...237336..1712304
35........2002....34034...204204...544544...649264...278256..1712304
36........1287....25025...170170...510510...680680...324632..1712304
37.........792....17820...138600...471240...706860...376992..1712304
38.........462....12210...109890...427350...726495...435897..1712304
39.........252.....7980....84360...379620...738150...501942..1712304
40.........126.....4914....62244...329004...740259...575757..1712304
41..........56.....2800....43680...276640...731120...658008..1712304
42..........21.....1435....28700...223860...708890...749398..1712304
43...........6......630....17220...172200...671580...850668..1712304
44...........1......215.....9030...123410...617050...962598..1712304
45...................44.....3784....79464...543004..1086008..1712304
46...........................990....42570...446985..1221759..1712304
47..................................15180...326370..1370754..1712304
48..........................................178365..1533939..1712304
49..................................................1712304..1712304
Total.13983816.13983816.13983816.13983816.13983816.13983816
.............A........B........C........D........E........F....Total
.1.....1712304...............................................1712304
.2.....1533939...178365......................................1712304
.3.....1370754...326370....15180.............................1712304
.4.....1221759...446985....42570......990....................1712304
.5.....1086008...543004....79464.....3784.......44...........1712304
.6......962598...617050...123410.....9030......215........1..1712304
.7......850668...671580...172200....17220......630........6..1712304
.8......749398...708890...223860....28700.....1435.......21..1712304
.9......658008...731120...276640....43680.....2800.......56..1712304
10......575757...740259...329004....62244.....4914......126..1712304
11......501942...738150...379620....84360.....7980......252..1712304
12......435897...726495...427350...109890....12210......462..1712304
13......376992...706860...471240...138600....17820......792..1712304
14......324632...680680...510510...170170....25025.....1287..1712304
15......278256...649264...544544...204204....34034.....2002..1712304
16......237336...613800...572880...240240....45045.....3003..1712304
17......201376...575360...595200...277760....58240.....4368..1712304
18......169911...534905...611320...316200....73780.....6188..1712304
19......142506...493290...621180...354960....91800.....8568..1712304
20......118755...451269...624834...393414...112404....11628..1712304
21.......98280...409500...622440...430920...135660....15504..1712304
22.......80730...368550...614250...466830...161595....20349..1712304
23.......65780...328900...600600...500500...190190....26334..1712304
24.......53130...290950...581900...531300...221375....33649..1712304
25.......42504...255024...558624...558624...255024....42504..1712304
26.......33649...221375...531300...581900...290950....53130..1712304
27.......26334...190190...500500...600600...328900....65780..1712304
28.......20349...161595...466830...614250...368550....80730..1712304
29.......15504...135660...430920...622440...409500....98280..1712304
30.......11628...112404...393414...624834...451269...118755..1712304
31........8568....91800...354960...621180...493290...142506..1712304
32........6188....73780...316200...611320...534905...169911..1712304
33........4368....58240...277760...595200...575360...201376..1712304
34........3003....45045...240240...572880...613800...237336..1712304
35........2002....34034...204204...544544...649264...278256..1712304
36........1287....25025...170170...510510...680680...324632..1712304
37.........792....17820...138600...471240...706860...376992..1712304
38.........462....12210...109890...427350...726495...435897..1712304
39.........252.....7980....84360...379620...738150...501942..1712304
40.........126.....4914....62244...329004...740259...575757..1712304
41..........56.....2800....43680...276640...731120...658008..1712304
42..........21.....1435....28700...223860...708890...749398..1712304
43...........6......630....17220...172200...671580...850668..1712304
44...........1......215.....9030...123410...617050...962598..1712304
45...................44.....3784....79464...543004..1086008..1712304
46...........................990....42570...446985..1221759..1712304
47..................................15180...326370..1370754..1712304
48..........................................178365..1533939..1712304
49..................................................1712304..1712304
Total.13983816.13983816.13983816.13983816.13983816.13983816