Re: Rebeckah (Texas Belle)

Member
Re: Rebeckah (Texas Belle)

This brought a question to my mind which has been basically gnawing at the back of my subconscious till now. Now bear in mind I was new to lotto and was just learning about Lotto and the GH system.
What was bothering me was first the populating of the wheel. I started with 18 wheel pools. What I soon realized was that hitting the Jackpot with 18 wheel pools of numbers was gonna be quite a bit of luck, or expensive. Then I shortened to pool from 14-16 numbers. Still not significantly better results.
What was bothering me was:
1) On any given draw there is no way to know if you have all the numbers in your pool.
2) Populating a wheel just seemed too inprecise unless there is a technique I am unaware of. I just seemed to depend too much on luck. Call it the science background in me but to me if you have the numbers, the wheel should take care of the rest. It was the years of that scientific method drilled into me.
3) Cost was bothering me also, If I wanted to use a decent guarantee wheel for 14-18 number wheels it would be expensive.

So here I am wondering about the futility of Lotto with this gnawing question in the back of my subconscious for months. How can I best increase my chances of winning the big one using GH wheels at my disposal when one cannot know at any given time if one has all the numbers in the pool. Also how can I overcome the inprecise way of populating a wheel even when I have correct numbers in my pool without being precognicent or depending on dumb luck. And how can I do this all in an affordable reasonable manner.

Several months later, this is what I learned.

1) If you have money Lotto is not the way to increase your wealth. Compound interest is the way to go.

2) If you don't have money Lotto is still not the way to go. Compound interest is still the better bet. Einstein called the invention of compound interest the 8th wonder of the world.

3) If you are gonna play wheels the smaller the pools the better.
Dennis has said on many occaisons that playing smaller wheels was better. It really didn't sink in till tonite. I didn't win a jackpot but I was messing around with GH wheels. Just randomly sticking in 6 number combinations of past draws with random numbers in the wheels with number requirements.
If you play pools of numbers no more than 4-5 more than the numbers drawn you have a better chance. Also play 1 power number if you can, drastically reduces the cost. With smaller pools the wheel is more inclined to take the work out of populating the wheel for you.

This reminded me of a scene in the Matrix where Keanu Reaves is talking to the bald headed boy who has a spoon in his hand, and is bending it with thought. The bald headed boy says " if you try to bend the spoon it is impossible. But then you realize it is not the spoon that bends but it is you." Your probably wondering WTF. Well we can't see the future, and we don't know when all the correct numbers are in our pool. And we don't want to depend on alot of luck in populating the wheel. So rather than struggle with all these variables which we can't control, on top of struggling with populating a wheel, play wheels with no more than 4-5 numbers more than the numbers drawn in the Lotto. That way the wheel does the work for you with the GH wheels with 1 power number.

Your probably still saying WTF. You probably knew this already. On top of that this guy writes this long explanation which is more philosophizing than to the point. Its 3 am and I was thinking and messing around with GH wheels and it was like a weight lifted off my back. You can win with GH wheels if you use small pools of numbers with one power number that is affordable =).
If anything I hope ya found this at least entertaining. I think I will sleep better at night without the riddle of the GH wheels gnawing in the back of my subconscious.

Take care Beckah.

Irvin

Member

Interesting indeed. WHat I would like to know is what is the guarantees you use for your wheels since I think this is very important.

I have created a wheel from 3 different wheels.

For what I think are hot numbers I put them in the first part of the wheel since I have set this to 5if6.

for the warm numbers I list these next since this cover goes upto 4if4 then cold numbers make up the rest of the wheel with a 4if5.

It allows me to cover more numbers when there is a major draw coming up without upsetting the syndicate.

Member
What I was actually saying is in my opinion a wheel should do the work for you but the greater the number pool the more difficult it is. By using smaller wheels you can play wheels with higher guarantees in an affordable manner. I was using Gh wheels of 4/4 or 5/6 with a dn or if I don't wanna use a DN I usually use Nicks wheels. But for example using 10 numbers and 1 Dn you can play a 6/6 for 126 dollars if ya really had a good hunch. Or you can play a 5/5 for 30 dollars.

Rebeckah

Member
well, first off, I was SOOOOO disgusted at the GH wheels because of what you've described that I no longer even look at them.... It's happened more than once too.... I now use Lottery Director wheels, mainly manual ones where I filter down... I found filtering to allow me more control over the variables... & I LOVE controling everything I can.

Most wheels will have an uneven distribution of each # within the wheel. That's how you can have all the winning numbers in your pool, but not get them in the same line. Even LD has this problem. I've even found LD wheels eliminating a # within my wheel for NO reason I can discern. I think the key is to have a small enough # pool AND keep all the winning #s, which is, of course, the hard part, eh?

Don't forget that this is still gambling, so it'll never be an exact science. & we should be playing for fun... not trying to make a living. Live now, if you win, great, if you don't, LIVE NOW.

Proper analysis does give you an edge up, like picking a designated {key} number. Also important is being able to keep a good mix of cold/average/hot numbers within each line of your wheel. Or limit the amount of adjacents, repeats, etc. GH wheels don't do that at all. Which is why I filter. That gives you lines that are more like winning combinations. GH lines were showing up with 5 adjacents, no colds, & O/E L/H bad ratios, totally useless lines. I did create pools with, sumthin' like 14 numbers, that contained all the winning #s, & ran them thru some GH wheels, and never got a winner. That's pretty sucky. IMO. I did cut my pool size down by half, but a sucky wheel is still a sucky wheel! Filtering is the way to go! Download Lottery Director, it's free! & it'll give you more control over your wheeling so you can maybe add a few more #s to your pool & still have as good a chance as with a GH wheel.

& yea, a wheel should do the work for you. & I just felt that GH wheels weren't doing it for me... Smaller # pools ARE the key, GH reccomends using half the playing field, which was where I started. I think most of us start with bigger pools, and once we get better at # selection we start shrinking the pool size. Designated #s are fantastic to use IF you're good at picking them.

& like I've said elsewhere.... somewhere, I dunno, I don't care at all about the guarantee... So I get a 3/6 guarantee... I'd rather have a 6/6 unguaranteed... know what I mean?

& for anybody wondering where I've been, I'm working on MegaMillions spreadsheets, as Texas will be joining that game soon, & I'm counting on a big \$130 million win for myself...

& oh yea, I wanted to add that life is a self fulfilling prophecy, so in that way you can see the future! What is they say?
If you dream it, you can be it!
big money dreams!

CDEX

Member
Wheeling and Filtering

Hi Rebeckah,

Just a couple of notes. In your post:

> Most wheels will have an uneven
> distribution of each # within the wheel.
> That's how you can have all the winning
> numbers in your pool, but not get them
> in the same line. Even LD has this
> problem. I've even found LD wheels
> eliminating a # within my wheel for
> NO reason I can discern.

That's entirely possible, and it can happen for two reasons.

- - -

1. The wheel guarantee:

I don't think this happened to you as an experienced player, but it does happen to 'newbie' players. That's why it's worth mentioning here.

I hear from new players who matched 4 winning numbers (say, in a field of 20 numbers). When they check their combinations, they don't have any winning ones.

They played an Abbreviated '5 for 3' wheel, or something like that. (If they match 5 numbers among their 20, they'll have at least a 3-number win.)

They matched only 4 numbers, so there's no guarantee of a 3-number win. They needed to match 5 to get the win.

Sounds obvious to an experienced player, but it's something each new player has to learn about wheeling. There's the big thrill of seeing 4 numbers matched (in the 20). Then it goes away when they don't see any winning lines in their wheel.

Another situation (related) is in using a Key number wheel. If the Key isn't matched, it's not likely there'll be any winning lines. Likewise with the Compound and Zone wheels.

Through plain luck, there might be some winning lines in the wheel -- but it only luck. It wasn't there in the wheel's design.

The trade-off they made, of course, was cost. They could have gotten a good win with a Full wheel, but that kind of wheel wasn't practical or affordable.

As I mentioned, most often this happens to folks who are just getting started with wheels, so it can be helpful for them to know that. I don't think this is what happened with your numbers.

- - -

2. Filtering:

It's possible to eliminate one or more numbers completely out of your wheel, through "tight" filtering.

Usually it's because two or more filters are combining to reject the number(s).

There are some classic examples.

A Sums filter, combined with a Low/High and an Even/Odd filter, might eliminate some numbers.

For example, suppose the player has mostly "Odd" numbers up in the "High" area. It's not a mistake at all. It can happen when the numbers are simply taken from the game's current trending.

If the filters are set to accept high Sums, plus mostly Even numbers and Low numbers, then it's possible that some numbers just won't make it to the final wheel. They might pass the high Sums filter, but can be eliminated by the filtering for Evens and Lows.

Couple that with some additional filters, say for Decades, Final Digits, Repeats (etc), and you can see how some numbers are just going to be squeezed out of the wheel.

Another classic (and funny one) is in using "central" filtering. In a 6/49, the most often drawn Sum is 150. The most often drawn Even/Odd split is 3/3 (3 Even, 3 Odd).

... However if you take 'only' the Sum of 150, plus 'only' the 3/3 Even/Odd split, you'll wind up with 0 (zero) combinations.

... Even if you take a wider range of Sums, plus a wider range of Even/Odd, you still won't get any combinations with a Sum of 150 and E/O split of 3/3. Can't happen.

To wrap it up:

Any time you find some numbers were completely removed from your wheel, it was caused by the choices in filtering.

... Specifically in LD, when you finish wheeling and you're at your 'TICKETS' screen (viewing your final combinations), you have an option at the top of the screen: "Numbers Distribution".

... Click it, and you'll see how many times each number appears in your wheel.

... If you see some numbers missing (or if you just don't like the way they're wheeled), you can go immediately back to your Filtering Menu. Try different filters. You can make as many passes through your filters as you like. It's not necessary to re-wheel your numbers.

... You can also save each of those sets of Tickets into its own Tickets File. Each one can use different filtering. Then you can check all of them for wins against the game's history, to see which ones you like best. It's always a trade-off between prizes and wheeling cost.

- - -

One suggestion for new players who are not too familiar yet with filtering ...

Take each filter one at a time. See what does to your combinations. Don't pile on tons of filtering all at once.

When you see what each filter does, then you can add a new filter and see the results you get with it.

In all cases, you only need to wheel your numbers once. Then you can play with the filters until you get the kinds of combinations you like, at a cost that fits your budget.

= = = = =

Long post. I apologize for the length of this thing. I hope it was helpful.

Joe Roberts
CDEX

Beaker

Member
Worth the read Joe - thanks for that explanation. I never knew about only 150 and only 3/3 for 6/49 - interesting.

luckystrike

Member
DEMI.......

I HAVEN'T HAD MUCH TIME ON MY HANDS LATELY..BUT I HAVE NOTICED YOU HAVEN'T BEEN AROUND....

HOWEVER...ANY TIME YOU RESPOND ON THE FORUM....I HAVE THIS DESIRE TO REACH OUT AND YOU....

YOU ARE TRULY AN INTERESTING INDIVIDUAL.....

VERY INTERESTING........

GOOD LUCK....

Dennis Bassboss

Member

As for DN numbers they are the most important thing in wheeling...Inexperience players are relunctant to use this...

For my part I think that if you play more than the double of regular numbers drawn it shows inexperience but mostly lack of confidence in your numbers and therefore in your filters...

It is two different world here...You have those that try to find what will come and you have those that try to find what will not come...Two different approach...

hot4

Member
Dennis Bassboss said:
As for DN numbers they are the most important thing in wheeling...Inexperience players are relunctant to use this...

For my part I think that if you play more than the double of regular numbers drawn it shows inexperience but mostly lack of confidence in your numbers and therefore in your filters...
It is two different world here...You have those that try to find what will come and you have those that try to find what will not come...Two different approach...

Wrong conclusion.

As someone told here yet, lottery is "binomial", that means both groups are trying the same goal.

It would be correct to conclude that there are two groups of players: those who show experience but mostly a lot of confidence in their numbers and those who show inexperience but mostly lack of confidence in their numbers.

Is there any study comparing the confidence of 6_winners with the confidence of not_ 6_winners?

Frank

Dennis Bassboss

Member
I will respect your opinion but I won't change a word in my post! This is my opinion!

hot4

Member
Dennis Bassboss said:
I will respect your opinion but I won't change a word in my post! This is my opinion!

OK! Your opinion was not my aim.

Frank

luckystrike

Member
DENNIS

Dennis Bassboss said:
I will respect your opinion but I won't change a word in my post! This is my opinion!

I WILL ALWAYS RESPECT YOUR OPINION......

YOU ARE ONE OF THE BEST!!!!

Rebeckah

Member
ohh, sorry it's taking me sooo long to check in here. Joe, thanks for that great post, yea, I believe I was using bigger # pools when I had all the #s, without a winning combo. Now I use 12-14 #s & I'm getting {was getting.. busy, busy} about 3-4 right, so I think my selection has improved while my pool decreased, which is our goal n'est pas?

Re: filtering eliminating a #, I recall I emailed you personally about that episode & I'm sorry I don't remember our conclusion. Blame my medication. But I do remember your kindness & willingness to help me which means the world to me. We had a discussion here a ways back about how even sums must have an even # O/E ratio.. {0/6, 2/4, 4/2, 6/0} all odd sums have an odd O/E ratio {1/5, 3/3, 5/1}. I believe that's right. Gilles knows for sure as I was discussing it with him. I recall predicting the O/E sum is HARD. predicting the ratio is easier. imo

My big beef with the GH wheels was that I constructed a fake pool containg all the winning #s + 6 extras, {so I HAD the guarantee covered} and I think I did a 10 # pool too, & ran it thru most of the wheels for that pool size & not one was a winner. That just opened my eyes WIDE that sw is not infaliable. Sorry- double negatives annoy me.... :
SW can be wrong!
I know we know this, but as a beginner I had a kind of blind trust in sw. mebbe I was blinded by the glamour of a lotto guru? Whatever. A sucky wheel is a sucky wheel!

CDEX

Member
Wheeling and Filtering

Hi Rebeckah,

Probably this is going to be another very long post. Just some comments about software, and mostly about wheeling.

Please note: I can't comment on software other than Lottery Director, in order to stay on the ethical high road. However I can make some general comments about wheeling, and maybe this will help to explain the differences you have been seeing in your wheels.

- - - -

First, some background information about "Abbreviated" wheels. (I think these are the kinds of wheels you have been playing.)

For players who are not too familiar with the term:

"Abbreviated" wheels are ones which offer guaranteed matching for lower prizes (second prize, third prize, etc), and which do not use "Key" numbers or "Zones" of numbers. ("Key" and "Zone" wheels are different kind of wheels.)

They're less expensive for the player to play, compared to "Full" wheels which provide complete coverage of the Jackpot prize. The player still gets some Jackpot chances with Abbreviated wheels, but their main purpose is to cover one of the game's lower prizes.

A typical Abbreviated wheel might cover 20 numbers and give a 5/4 guarantee -- meaning, if you can match any 5 winning numbers among your 20 chosen numbers, you'll have a minimum prize of a 4-number win. A higher prize is possible (as are multiple prizes), but you already know the minimum prize you should expect from the wheel. It is designed to match the game's numbers in that way. That's how the combinations are constructed, to make the numbers "work together".

So, when playing the wheel, you know all your important playing information up front:

... how many numbers you're playing,

... how to match them with the game's winning numbers, and

... what kind of (minimum) prize you'll have if you make that match.

Equally important, you also know up front what your playing cost will be -- how many tickets you'll need to buy.

When you play a good wheel, it takes away all the worry about "making good combinations".

All you need to do is to pick the right numbers. (That is, you just need to pick any 5 "right" numbers out of your 20.) The wheel will take it from there. It will take care of combining your numbers to match them for the prize.

Picking the right 20 numbers is tough enough. You have to do that on your own.

At least with good wheels, that is all you'll have to do. The wheel will then take over the job of putting the 20 numbers together to match a prize.

(The "20 numbers" is just an example. There are wheels for any range of numbers.)

- - - -

Now back to your numbers, and how they are being combined in the wheel.

- - - -

Here are some of the differences you might have experienced.

Typically, stock "Abbreviated" wheels try to give you about equal coverage of your numbers. If you are playing (say) 20 numbers, the 20th number is treated about equally as your 1st or 2nd number. The term used (not very accurately) is to get "balance" in the wheel.

I don't like that approach very much. The LD wheels work differently from that.

Their idea is that when you are choosing your numbers, you are not just "fishing" for numbers or "shot-gunning" a bunch of numbers. You have some reasons for choosing the numbers. Your 20th number is not as "important" to you as your 1st, 2nd, 3rd, (etc) numbers.

If you are going to choose 20 numbers out of a field or 49 to play for a Pick-6 game, you must have had some kind of personal reason or "priority" for choosing them.

Likewise, if you're going to choose 20 numbers to play out of a field of 44, for a Pick-5 game, you must have had some reason for choosing those 20 numbers, and not choosing the other 24. And among your 20, your "first number" must have been your "first choice", and so on.

So, in the wheel, your numbers are ranked according to how you picked them. Your first numbers are given the highest priority for wheeling, and so on down the line.

Note: To the wheel, it doesn't matter "how" or "why" you picked the numbers. Its job is to combine them to match a prize. You could have picked your cat's birthday numbers, for all the wheel knows or cares. All that matters (to the wheel) is that you picked some numbers before some other numbers, because you liked them better.

... In other words, the wheel's job is to respect your "personal priorities" for choosing numbers -- and then to get busy and start making combinations with those numbers, so they can match a prize.

Your 20th number is about at the mid-point in the game's field of numbers. As a player, it's unlikely that your 20th number is as important to you as your 1st or 2nd number. You must have had some kind of personal feeling or "priority" for choosing the numbers.

So, the LD wheels try to give as much emphasis to your "high-priority" numbers as possible, consistent with the wheel's guarantee.

In other words, the wheels try to use your "high-priority" numbers as much as possible, while still maintaining the wheel's built-in prize guarantee.

Instead of treating all numbers equally (say, 20 of them) the wheel tries to put your "top" numbers into as many combinations as it possibly can do.

While doing so, it still must maintain the wheel's guarantee (say, match-5 to get a minimum 4-number prize). It still matches the win guarantee, but it does so using more of your higher-priority numbers.

- - - -

This is a long post. Here's what it boils down to.

This will probably help to explain your experiences with the two kinds of wheeling you mentioned.

If you have been fairly successful in picking winning numbers (out of your game's field of numbers), you probably did better with the Lottery Director wheels than with the other ones you mentioned. That is just because the LD wheels tend to emphasize more of your "top choices" when picking numbers and wheeling them.

... If you pick "good" numbers, you have more of them in your LD wheels.

On the other hand, if you've just been about average in picking winning numbers, you might do better with other software. That is just because the other software tends to treat all numbers about equally, regardless of how or why you picked them.

... If you pick "average" numbers, you have more of them in the other wheels.

- - - -

Again, this is a very long post. I'm a little concerned about putting such long posts into the forum. On the other hand, it can cover the topic better than 4 or 5 shorter posts, so I hope it's OK and helpful.

Wheeling is such a useful subject for lottery players, and also an interesting one.

I hope this helps to shine some light on it.

Joe Roberts
CDEX

Irvin

Member
Hello Joe

What you posted might be a long post but its great information.

Regards,

Irvin

Rebeckah

Member
I'm here to discuss & learn everything lotto related which will improve my game, leading to a win, which is what I think all of us want.... so, I think any long discussion is beneficial if somebody's learning something.

Your post clarified for me my views on wheel guarantees. I've always had an almost hostile attitude towards wheel guarantees, & now I know why! Thanks!
My problem is that I don't care about 3-4-5 guarantees cuz I want the JP win guaranteed. I know no wheel can really do that & still be affordable haha. I've also suspected what you alluded to: A wheel will make certain combinations biased towards the guarantee. Which means the wheel may eliminate a combo that would win a JP in order to include a combo that will fulfill the guarantee.

Put another way: when faced with a choice between a JP winning combination and a combination that meets the wheel's guarantee, the wheel will choose the guarantee combo. & eliminate the JP combo. THAT's what upsets me.

I know, I know, I'm probabally giving wheels credit for being intelligent beings, but this explains my attitude.

& just to comment: GH wheels can rearrange the *loading* of your #s within a wheel. {*Optimizing*.} My.... frustration with that feature is that there's no rhyme or reason to it. It's just random rearranging. What you mentioned about # placement IS very important, and with her wheels optimizing can result in your last picked # in top placement. So I don't recommend using that function. Just thought I'd share that for anybody thinking about buying her wheels. They have merit for a beginner, I DID buy them and use them for a bit.... However, Lottery Director sw has given me tools to create combinations closer to actual winning combos. Like I said, GH wheels were spitting out combos with 4 adjacents, & 3 repeats & all hot #s... combos like that, that I wouldn't play... .so my GH wheel would have 1/2 the combos scratched out. Which was pretty useless.

Rebeckah

Member
uh...... I meant thanks for helping me to see what was upseting me ..... sorry that came out strangely. I also realized I'll need to either change my attitude about abrev. wheels or else only use full wheels & filter down. I believe that attitude is everything & if I'm thinking a wheel is gonna win or lose, then it will.

CDEX

Member
Wheeling and Filtering

Hi Rebeckah,

The process you mentioned (of rearranging the numbers in the wheel) is one I do not like either. We rejected it way back on day one.

Basically what it does to your numbers is this: (1) shift your numbers, (2) make new combinations with them, and then (3) check to see how many of the Sums come close to the game's central Sum. It repeats this until it gets the most Sums in that area.

It shifts the numbers, based on Sums. However in doing so, it ignores all the other factors you might want to have in your combinations.

For example, it will give you Sums that are near to the central range, but in doing so it disregards what happens to Even/Odd, Low/High, Consecutives, Adjacents, Repeat Numbers (etc).

It can actually make those factors worse than they were in the original wheel. That's why you have wound up with four or more adjacent numbers, as you noted.

To the player, it raises the natural question: "If you're so concerned with getting Sums to come close to the ranges that are most often drawn by the game -- then why would you ignore what is happening to your Even/Odd, Low/High, Repeat (etc) numbers? Why wouldn't you also want to get those numbers close to the ranges that are most often drawn by the game?"

It's OK if the player doesn't care about those other factors. Trouble is, every combination represents a playing cost.

The whole idea in filtering is to take a large set of combinations (too expensive to play) and reduce them to an affordable level, while at the same time keeping the kinds of combinations the player hopes are going to win.

Frankly, it seems a little silly for the player to only "look and not touch" the combinations, when his or her playing cost is at stake. It's not enough to see screens and printouts that show the winning factors like E/O, L/H, Consecutives, Repeats, etc -- and then not to have any kind of control at all over them when making new combinations to play in the next draw.

The player "controls" them by manually crossing out combinations on a printout, or by highlighting them with colored pencils -- not an ideal solution for a software user.

It's just better to do it in the software itself. Also, the final combinations can then be tested against the game's history, comparing costs and prizes. They can checked for wins after the drawing, and so on. It's just the right way to do it.

- - - -

Your Jackpot chances with an Abbreviated wheel are exactly the same as your Jackpot chances with a Full wheel -- if both wheels have the same amount of combinations, and if no combinations are duplicated in either wheel.

There's no difference whatsoever (surprising as it may seem).

If you took (say) a 6/9 Full wheel with 84 combinations, and a 6/20 Abbreviated wheel that you've filtered down to 84 combinations, both of them have the same JP chances. Their only difference is in how lower prizes are covered.

This is already another long post, so we can explore this in some new posts if there's any interest to players.

It's a pleasure discussing these topics, and hopefully they are helpful to players.

Joe Roberts
CDEX

LT

It's a pleasure discussing these topics, and hopefully they are helpful to players.
What is a real pleasure is your posts here Joe. I and many members here are great admirers of your contibutions to the lottery industry over the many years. Your advice is always helpful to players.