lottoarchitect
Member
Perfect.
Just to post my two cents here because all of you speak correctly.
Let's define randomness loosely first because this is the reason for the mess.
Randomness in a system is the reason we cannot obtain any information for future events, even if we have all the information of the past. The reason for this is pretty simple: zillions of uncontrolled and unkown factors that can affect the outcome of the result. Perfect, this is just fine, cool. Also applies to lotteries I could say. So does that means lotteries are random?
Think a bit of the next argument:
In real-machine draws, do you know that the numbers always come in the same order in the tubes? Has anyone ever thought that this particular initial condition alone is a very good reason for bias in the outcome of draws? If bias exists because of this (and probably exists), then not all numbers have equal chance to occur which means each one combination definitely has different chance to occur from other combinations.
In pure random systems 1 2 3 4 5 6 has the exact same chance to occur with any other combination. In lotteries, if bias exist this is not true which means the system is not purely random. And if a system is not purely random, then there is a hope to trap this to evaluate future events, at least partially. Also, using entropy, given the very low entropy of the initial condition (it is very organized), the system always tend to move to higher entropy which is the rule of nature. By this argument alone, I do not expect 1 2 3 4 5 6 to occur as often as any other combination. I do not violate math laws now because simply the draws are not purely random events because they are biased. This is my humble opinion on the subject of lotteries.
The case is exactly the same with PRNG systems. The outcome is deterministic, no matter how complex they might make the procedure. Simply put, the result is not random. The only problem is that we cannot know what function/seed/iterrations or whatever they apply but still the system is not purely random.
And just a question for thinking to everyone: will you play for 80 years or as you long as you live the same draw that comes at the previous draw and expect to win even if you believe draws are totally random? I doubt.
Now you can continue your arguments but keep in mind the above.
cheers
lottoarchitect
Just to post my two cents here because all of you speak correctly.
Let's define randomness loosely first because this is the reason for the mess.
Randomness in a system is the reason we cannot obtain any information for future events, even if we have all the information of the past. The reason for this is pretty simple: zillions of uncontrolled and unkown factors that can affect the outcome of the result. Perfect, this is just fine, cool. Also applies to lotteries I could say. So does that means lotteries are random?
Think a bit of the next argument:
In real-machine draws, do you know that the numbers always come in the same order in the tubes? Has anyone ever thought that this particular initial condition alone is a very good reason for bias in the outcome of draws? If bias exists because of this (and probably exists), then not all numbers have equal chance to occur which means each one combination definitely has different chance to occur from other combinations.
In pure random systems 1 2 3 4 5 6 has the exact same chance to occur with any other combination. In lotteries, if bias exist this is not true which means the system is not purely random. And if a system is not purely random, then there is a hope to trap this to evaluate future events, at least partially. Also, using entropy, given the very low entropy of the initial condition (it is very organized), the system always tend to move to higher entropy which is the rule of nature. By this argument alone, I do not expect 1 2 3 4 5 6 to occur as often as any other combination. I do not violate math laws now because simply the draws are not purely random events because they are biased. This is my humble opinion on the subject of lotteries.
The case is exactly the same with PRNG systems. The outcome is deterministic, no matter how complex they might make the procedure. Simply put, the result is not random. The only problem is that we cannot know what function/seed/iterrations or whatever they apply but still the system is not purely random.
And just a question for thinking to everyone: will you play for 80 years or as you long as you live the same draw that comes at the previous draw and expect to win even if you believe draws are totally random? I doubt.
Now you can continue your arguments but keep in mind the above.
cheers
lottoarchitect