Pick 3 Turbo Pl
Member
A doubles draw (including triples) is a coveted draw as the payout is much better than a singles draw. Excluding the relatively rare possibility for triples, the payout for a doubles draw is $300 ($1 ticket) at the best paying sites. At the local state level doubles payouts have been as high as approximately $220, but generally they are less than $200, and you also have the disadvantage of not having the flexibility to play a game that might be a better candidate for a doubles play.
For a boxed play, to cover all possibilities, it takes 100 combinations. With a $300 payout you have 2 chances to make some money, 3 to break even, and then you have to increase your commitment to go 4 draws out or more.
There are means of filtering out a key number, a root, even/odd, triples, and so on, to reduce the size of the bet, but the gross total to make sure nothing is missed (i.e. you win if a doubles hits) 100 combinations are required:
Although I do not have a precise formula yet for determining to the day, or at least within a few draws, when a doubles draw will play, a step in that direction (just one way to go at it) is to start with looking at the statistical extremes of consecutive singles play.
In this current 361 draw period (as of today) the maximum number of consecutive singles plays is 22. In the last two years I have seen 29 (CAE). So if you wait until a draw is, let's say, x number of draws beyond the max for all games, to start play, the odds of hitting in a few draws are at least better than a blind bet.
Another approach is to wait until an individual game is reaching its max, decide on x number of draws past the old max, and then play. For example, Pennsylvania Evening has had 16 consecutive singles plays, which happens to be 100% of its max in the last 361 draws. I have not thoroughly tested this idea, but on the face of it, we 'should' see a doubles draw in PAE within 4 draws.
Another approach is similar, but this time we look for the games with the lowest maximum count of consecutive singles play, and play within 1 to 2 draws of the current max, or maybe play if the max gets hit.
The games in this category are:
QC - 11
ID - 11
NJE - 11
NM - 11
NYD - 11
KYD - 10
CTE - 10
Another factor to look at is percentage of singles play in the last 30 draws to fine tune the above:
QC - 83.3%
ID - 73.3%
NJE - 63.3%
NM - 76.7%
NYD - 70.0%
KYD - 76.7%
CTE - 76.7%
When we combine the two we see New Jersey Evening (NJE) as the most likely (near term) to play a duplicate in a draw.
Currently NJE has played 5 consecutive singles plays with a current max of 11. If NJE gets out to 8 or so, then based on this approach, it would be in play for a duplicate draw.
Another approach is to look at the games that have been the hottest draws for duplicates in the last 30 draws.
VAD - 50%
PAD - 46.7%
TXE - 43.3%
NYE - 36.7%
MOE - 36.7%
WI - 36.7%
NJE - 36.7%
It is interesting to note that, with the exception of TXE (1) and NJE (5) all of these games just hit a doubles.
In terms of overall max consecutive singles play the current hottest doubles players look like this:
VAD - 14
PAD - 22
TXE - 13
NYE - 16
MOE - 13
WI - 13
NJE - 11
So if we 'throw out' PAD, we see that the currently hottest doubles players have relatively low max's for consecutive singles play, for a mean of 13, which is 3 off the low and 8 off the current high.
So perhaps what we should focus on is games (in this approach) where the max is no more than +2 above the mean AND where they have shown at least x number of consecutive singles plays.
Exactly what to assign to x is tricky, obviously. A percentage of the mean?
Based on the above, PAD and NJE are the best near term candidates for a doubles play based on the known data.
While it is very helpful to have a program that can deliver the stats, their interpretation is still up to the user. But I have found having them is better than not, as it helps me to easily develop and test ideas. The good ones I keep, the bad ones i throw out.
For a boxed play, to cover all possibilities, it takes 100 combinations. With a $300 payout you have 2 chances to make some money, 3 to break even, and then you have to increase your commitment to go 4 draws out or more.
There are means of filtering out a key number, a root, even/odd, triples, and so on, to reduce the size of the bet, but the gross total to make sure nothing is missed (i.e. you win if a doubles hits) 100 combinations are required:
Code:
000,111,222,333,444,555,666,777,888,999,001,002,003,004,005,006,007,008,009,011,022,033,044,055,066,077,088,099,112,113,114,115,116,117,118,119,122,133,144,155,166,177,188,199,223,224,225,226,227,228,229,233,244,255,266,277,288,299,334,335,336,337,338,339,344,355,366,377,388,399,445,446,447,448,449,455,466,477,488,499,556,557,558,559,566,577,588,599,667,668,669,677,688,699,778,779,788,799,889,899Although I do not have a precise formula yet for determining to the day, or at least within a few draws, when a doubles draw will play, a step in that direction (just one way to go at it) is to start with looking at the statistical extremes of consecutive singles play.
In this current 361 draw period (as of today) the maximum number of consecutive singles plays is 22. In the last two years I have seen 29 (CAE). So if you wait until a draw is, let's say, x number of draws beyond the max for all games, to start play, the odds of hitting in a few draws are at least better than a blind bet.
Another approach is to wait until an individual game is reaching its max, decide on x number of draws past the old max, and then play. For example, Pennsylvania Evening has had 16 consecutive singles plays, which happens to be 100% of its max in the last 361 draws. I have not thoroughly tested this idea, but on the face of it, we 'should' see a doubles draw in PAE within 4 draws.
Another approach is similar, but this time we look for the games with the lowest maximum count of consecutive singles play, and play within 1 to 2 draws of the current max, or maybe play if the max gets hit.
The games in this category are:
QC - 11
ID - 11
NJE - 11
NM - 11
NYD - 11
KYD - 10
CTE - 10
Another factor to look at is percentage of singles play in the last 30 draws to fine tune the above:
QC - 83.3%
ID - 73.3%
NJE - 63.3%
NM - 76.7%
NYD - 70.0%
KYD - 76.7%
CTE - 76.7%
When we combine the two we see New Jersey Evening (NJE) as the most likely (near term) to play a duplicate in a draw.
Currently NJE has played 5 consecutive singles plays with a current max of 11. If NJE gets out to 8 or so, then based on this approach, it would be in play for a duplicate draw.
Another approach is to look at the games that have been the hottest draws for duplicates in the last 30 draws.
VAD - 50%
PAD - 46.7%
TXE - 43.3%
NYE - 36.7%
MOE - 36.7%
WI - 36.7%
NJE - 36.7%
It is interesting to note that, with the exception of TXE (1) and NJE (5) all of these games just hit a doubles.
In terms of overall max consecutive singles play the current hottest doubles players look like this:
VAD - 14
PAD - 22
TXE - 13
NYE - 16
MOE - 13
WI - 13
NJE - 11
So if we 'throw out' PAD, we see that the currently hottest doubles players have relatively low max's for consecutive singles play, for a mean of 13, which is 3 off the low and 8 off the current high.
So perhaps what we should focus on is games (in this approach) where the max is no more than +2 above the mean AND where they have shown at least x number of consecutive singles plays.
Exactly what to assign to x is tricky, obviously. A percentage of the mean?
Based on the above, PAD and NJE are the best near term candidates for a doubles play based on the known data.
While it is very helpful to have a program that can deliver the stats, their interpretation is still up to the user. But I have found having them is better than not, as it helps me to easily develop and test ideas. The good ones I keep, the bad ones i throw out.
blitzed