pick 3 system / program doubles forecast hit PAE

[Pick 3 Turbo Pl]

From a previous thread:

http://www.lotto649.ws/daily-lottos/7605-pick-3-system-program-forecasting.html

I thought I said PAE as a doubles within 4 draws, but apparently I said 7. Well, it hit yesterday (11/5) two draws later.

This is a tough play because it requires a bit of loot. You can (generally) safely cut the size down to 90 by stripping out triples, and often you can get rid of a root, which brings the combinations for play to 79, But the more filters you introduce the odds creep up on you that you'll miss the boat, even if you were right in the primary thesis (a doubles play within x number of draws).

Nonetheless, as indicated, the two likely candidates for near term play for a doubles, as noted 11/3 have both played.

The matrix for a doubles side play is a little ugly. Here is what 7 draws out looks like with the only filter being triples taken out:

http://i132.photobucket.com/albums/q16/p3plyr/matrix2.jpg

To capitalize, then, on this sort of play, even though the probability is excellent in game-wide holistic comparitive terms, the rate of return is low, and if you have to go out 7 draws very low indeed. But, a win is a win. The point is if you are going to win, then the issue of how much is not as relevant.

However, anything can happen, and for the record you could go all the way out to draw 7 and still not see the doubles, which would result in a hefty loss. To control this risk you can always opt for .25 tickets. It is not the best play oin terms of risk reward, but it is worth ongoing study. It is at least encouraging to see that based on the study of the stats I have been hitting all my plays.

Can we ever get to a point where we 'know' what is going to happen in a tight range of draw dates, where the issue simply becomes one of having enough cash in our acct to back up our plays until they hit?

Well, this is an area I have devoted a lot of time to. I lean to a yes, but have the usual generic reservations. At least I have the tools and infrastructure to continue to develop the model.

 

[blitzed]

From a previous thread:
Can we ever get to a point where we 'know' what is going to happen in a tight range of draw dates, where the issue simply becomes one of having enough cash in our acct to back up our plays until they hit?

heh! I'm now waitin on CA Daily 3 midday to spit up doubles...they've been missin 16 draws now. I can play the probable doubles on a small number of picks while waitin for them to break.

later,
blitzed

 

[Pick 3 Turbo Pl]

heh! I'm now waitin on CA Daily 3 midday to spit up doubles...they've been missin 16 draws now. I can play the probable doubles on a small number of picks while waitin for them to break.

later,
blitzed

86.7% singles play last 30 draws. CAD and CAE are a little spooky as they hold the recent record (29), though currently for this 361 draw period are not as singles-hot.

Still, not saying CAD may not hit doubles soon, in terms of play, I like to see the singles play in the recent 30 draw period in the 90s. Getting past 95% is typically pretty hard work.

In terms of what is probable, this is a good area for study. I do not have many hard and fast rules in this regard. I can nibble at the 100 by taking out triples, then a root. Another filter to 'back into' the draw is to exclude a Key number as well. That is tricky.

I have spent probably too much time looking for a reliable key exclusion formula, but did not find one. I thought i had something, but it was streaky and not ironclad.

That being said, as a rule, i never exclude any number that just played, as the likelihood of *one* of those numbers repeating is somewhere in the ~70% area.

But this is an area that can be tweaked (like everything else). For example, in consideration of an exclusion, fundamentally we'd look for a key that is recently cold (not the only way, just a starting point).

If we note the key stats for CAD, 2 of the three numbers that played (7 and 8) are the coldest in terms of their 10 day rolling average (5). However, 8 has been hot, playing 5 times in the last 9 draws, its max for the period. A max of 5 for a 9 day period is a pretty low max, so the fact that the current play equals the max (5 and 5) does not mean '8' is 'too' hot and due for a break. So in this case, even though 8 may *not* play tomorrow, it would be inadvisable to exclude that from play.

7 is playing 5 (max rolling 9 draw period) and 3 (current), with a 10 draw rolling avg of 5 (game low). So this number is, in statistial terms, less lilely to play than the 8.

So the thinking here is if a number has an established 'cold' profile, which can be confirmed from a few perspectives (not just one), and it just plays, OR has played very recently (in the last one or two draws), the implication here is the 'cold' number, for the time being, is 'played' out.

Again, the precise balance is still elusive, something i hate to admit. Now, if I see a number hitting 8 or 9 times in the last 9 draws, matching its max for the period, i see that as a number too hot and likely to fall off its highs. But CAD doesn't offer anything like that.

About the only number that looks conspicuous for an exclusion is 2. It just played the day before, it is playing at the lows or the 10 draw rolling average (5), and its 9 draw profile is 5 and 1.

So if we take out K2 and triples (leaving the root alone), we have a bet with 72 combinations on the doubles side only.

That is one way to chip away at the bet.

Another idea is to key the 8 on the doubles side. if you leave the triplets in, you get 19 combinations:

008,088,118,188,228,288,338,388,448,488,558,588,668,688,778,788,889,899,

The point of keying 8 is the player is anticipating the 5/5 to break and make new highs for the period. However! If the 8 plays singles side, you were right about the 8 but wrong on the bet.

It is an interesting thing here, that 8. I would not be surprised to see it play one more time in the next 4 draws. if it plays with a double, so much the better.

Unfortunately this puts us back to a basic key play @55 combinations, up to 4 draws out.

A more aggressive play is to sit on the K8 doubles side only. 4 draws x 19 = $76 bucks down the drain IF the 8 hits, but not the doubles (or it doesn't hit at all).

 

[Pick 3 Turbo Pl]

It is an interesting thing here, that 8. I would not be surprised to see it play one more time in the next 4 draws. if it plays with a double, so much the better.

The 8 hit today CAD btw

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