Pick 3 Doubles Cycle

[Icewynd]

In my Pick 3 tracking spreadsheet I calculate a 15 day moving average of the doubles that are played (count of doubles in the last 15 games, divided by 15, expressed as a percentage). Recently I observed that this statistic moves in cycles with a peak of up to 47% of the last 15 games being doubles (7/15) and a low point of about 7% of the last 15 games being doubles (1/15). Of course, since the game likes to mess with ya, these high and low points are not always reached, sometimes the peak will be 40% and the low will be 13%.

At any rate, if you track this statistic you will be able to tell when the game will be throwing more doubles at you. If the statistic gets low (1 or 2 doubles in the last 15) and then starts to move up you are being given a warning that the cycle is on the upswing.

I was thinking about this the other day, as my 15 day MA had reached 13% and then moved up to 20%, causing me to speculate as to whether the cycle had bottomed out. Well, I got my answer yesterday when both midday and evening draws produced doubles! Looks like we will be getting more doubles in Ontario for the next week or two.

 

[Icewynd]

As predicted, we have had more doubles -- 8 in the last 22 games or 36% doubles vs. expected 27%. The Double cycle seems to be trying to peak, having hit 6 doubles in the last 15 games 3 times. Sometimes 6/15 is as high as it will go, but if it is to hit 7 in 15 games (the usual cycle peak) we can expect 2 more doubles in the next 5 games (i.e. 5/26 Midday to 5/28 Midday).

We will see...

 

[Icewynd]

Well, 181 Evening 5/26 and 944 Midday 5/27, so we have our 7/15 which is the usual cycle peak. Still a couple of chances for it to go 8/15, which happens once every 4 or 5 cycles, so we will see what happens today.

Otherwise, this cycle should be toast! We will now start seeing fewer doubles and longer skips.

 

[blitzed]

hiya Icewynd, yeah it is nice whenya can call doubles

especially if the previous draw was doubles...can be very rewarding ifya pick3 is pari-mutuel, I guess fewer people will chase doubles if they have already been shaken out.

cya,
blitzed

 

[Icewynd]

I guess fewer people will chase doubles if they have already been shaken out.

Hey, Blitzed,

I have noticed the same thing, but any student of the game knows that the point that has the single largest probability of a double is immediately after a double has hit -- about 24% of them.

Good playin'

 

[Icewynd]

Still a couple of chances for it to go 8/15, which happens once every 4 or 5 cycles, so we will see what happens today.

Otherwise, this cycle should be toast! We will now start seeing fewer doubles and longer skips.

Well, I spoke too soon: 5/29 Midday 848, Evening 227!

We now have 8 doubles in the last 15 which is the highest percentage that I have seen in my tracking. This cycle has been tenacious, but hopefully this was its last gasp.

 

[blitzed]

Well, I spoke too soon: 5/29 Midday 848, Evening 227!

We now have 8 doubles in the last 15 which is the highest percentage that I have seen in my tracking. This cycle has been tenacious, but hopefully this was its last gasp.

hiya Icewynd, wild...near 50% doubles, oversaturated indeed

I hate having to wait for a game to kinda normalize, before I feel comfortable letting substantial bets ride.

cya!
blitzed

 

[Icewynd]

Actually, Blitzed, this is normal!

I used to fear doubles, they seemed to be so unpredictable, until I started tracking the cycle and I realised that sometimes there would be a lot of doubles, sometimes only a few, and that it is (semi) predictable.

It also helps to know that 57% of doubles will happen in the first 3 games after the original hit (skips 0, 1, 2) and that 83% of them will fall by skip 4.

There's some good money to be made if you can master doubles. I'm not there -yet-, but I'm working on it.