nov 16........N. F. L......football

[daleks]

no luck last week, but have been getting 3 wrong on the toto menus, where only 2 wrong are allowed......

still playing 60.75$, which means five triples on one ticket, or three triples on 9 tickets, or split each of the nine into 3 tickets of 2 triples, and the three of us playing have tried all those different ways.....and then, of course, everyong plays a simple $1.00 ticket, hoping for the best...

been looking at ways to cover more games as locks, but hard to do without spending more money....and the locks we have been using, (i.e.- games which we feel certain have only one outcome) have been upsets.....i think there were another 6 or 7 this past week....then, of course, the ties (3 points or less).....oh, yes, the darn ties...........

just took a brief look at this weeks menu for november 16, and it looks as though the home teams are favoured a lot....perhaps i'll play a single ticket with all the favourites, and then find 6 or 7 or 5 which could be upsets.....of course, what else would one do....

now, to find the upsets.........................have lots of time this week, and will post this time before playing........... i.p.a.

 

[daleks]

have mine picked on the 13-game toto menu, am playing $20.25, and have several slips.....the only ticket with 3 triples ($6.75) has those triples on games 10,11,13.....dallas,green bay,minnesota...two other tickets both have 2 triples ($2.25), the other tickets are $1.00 or 1.50 tickets, with various results..
the two people i play with still have their tickets to pick...one of them found several web sites where, it seems, the most popular picks this week are the home teams....bclc's odds, which follow those of vegas, bear out the trend to home teams this week......last week, four games turned aroud on the odds and the other team won, while three ended up as ties.....hopefully, by scattering my predicted results around, i will be able to catch enough of those to get at least 11/13 right.....good luck, all..... ......rainforest

 

[system13]

nfl week 11

For this week I'll bet on these....

Indy over the Jets at -6 .
The Jets did not touch Rick Mirer of the Raiders last week and with that sort of time again Manning will slice their secondary to pieces.....although the Jets have only lost 1 game in November since 2001 (great stat)

Broncos over the Chargers at -8.
It's a big 'cap but the Chargers are 24th in the league against the run (29th in total ) so Clinton Portis should have a field day and with Plummer hopefully back, the Broncos are starting getting there team back to full strength - plus they beat the Chargers in week 2 37-13.

Another 'amazing' trend...
Teams coming off a BYE who are 7+ fav's and the total is >42.5 are 11-0 SU with an average victory of 19.6 points! They average over 38 points per game (The lowest team score has been 28 by Indi in 2002!) and the lowest margin of victory has been 7 points!! Not surprisingly since teams av. 38.5ppg, this situation is 10-1 'over' since '98 (av. game score 57.4!!), and the only 'under' was 36-0 in Wk. 5 this season when the total was 45!!
Two teams are in this situation this week.
Denver and New Orleans.

Taken Denver -7.5, New Orleans -7.5 as well....also K.C. -5.5.
Will be surprised if at least 2 of these games don't go 'over'.

All singles of course, no pools for me.

GL

 

[system13]

update

Indy over the Jets at -6 38-31 (this one was a close shave )

Broncos over the Chargers at -8 37-8 (easier than expected )

New Orleans won 23-20, but didn't cover the spread , and K.C lost, so, all in all, no profit/loss gained but there's always a new week.

Should've sticked to my initial analysis,though,without any trends included

Hope you did better in your pool, daleks.

Cheers.

 

[daleks]

not a winner.......ended up playing usual 60.25$, played lots of tickets with two triples, lots with three triples,then my friend won $139.00 on oddset, so he played one ticket with five triples...again, we had two tickets with three wrong, where only two wrong are allowed.....no winner of the 13/13 category.....this coming sunday i will try to play more smaller priced tickets, ie- play doubles and singles.....