Numbers cant repeat in the same draw, but some numbers do repeat , not all 6 of course, usually one or 2, it is usually easier to rule what what probably can't happen than what can happen. Sort of like predicting what 100 people will do verses what one person will do. I agree with that sequence with the scratch and win, I used to win one after the other, not big ones. Then nothing for a while. Possibly the retailers who sells tickets every day notice these patterns. I have started really studying the numbers, and of course it sounds crazy, and I can't pick well, but number generators and comparing the previous 3 months are so numbers, seem to have helped me yesterday, and were helping me discarding winning numbers thinking they were losers. Also talking about this is almost taboo. It is like that movie Bank, predicting little crashes is not impossible. But to predict them without any risk of them not happening is impossible. Often we are told to turn a blind eye when we notice things. Imagine if you could crack the lottery, what would the government do. I think people picking randomly makes it appear it is impossible to win. I was never intersted in statistics before, but the more you study you see so many things being predictable, and there is always a part that isnt predictable. Just because the human brain can't predict numbers easily doesnt mean the numbers within a certain range of probability arent predictable.
Myth busters for ticket lottery products
- Thread starter Sheba
- Start date
Maybe the investigation on the retailers is a good thing, maybe they can intuitively pick a few of the numbers, if the are exposed to the system long enough. Maybe they were just grabbing other people's tickets. No one who uses the word predict says they are controlling the outcome, those are two different tasks. I also think the balls fall in a bend, and the mode is not the median, but way off center. Of course I can't use my head to calculate that. But people are buying their tickets randomly, so they are playing two sets of randomness, the randomness of the lottery, and then the radomness of the machine giving them a ticket which makes sense under the laws of probability. I would think most people who win big, probably do sign their tickets, and probably do check them before they go into the store. I know not everyone does. Then many stores have a machine where you check yourself.
Now look at the new orleans disaster, that was predictable, it was predicted. Many experts said New orleans wouldnt be able to withstand a hurricane 4 or higher due to their aging infrastructure. No one was controlling the outcome, obviuosly. The outcome was out of control, but still predictable. That is the whole point of management. This is the 21st century. We don't need to do rain dances anymore. We don't need to wait f divine intervention, you build damns to be high enough, strong enough, improve them when when weather gets more severe.
That is a myth that when a person predicts they are saying they are in control. That is not what they are saying. They are saying if they observe something long enough there is a pattern on top of chaos. They are not saying they are in control of chaos.
Now look at the new orleans disaster, that was predictable, it was predicted. Many experts said New orleans wouldnt be able to withstand a hurricane 4 or higher due to their aging infrastructure. No one was controlling the outcome, obviuosly. The outcome was out of control, but still predictable. That is the whole point of management. This is the 21st century. We don't need to do rain dances anymore. We don't need to wait f divine intervention, you build damns to be high enough, strong enough, improve them when when weather gets more severe.
That is a myth that when a person predicts they are saying they are in control. That is not what they are saying. They are saying if they observe something long enough there is a pattern on top of chaos. They are not saying they are in control of chaos.
I'm not going to argue with what you'r saying. You have done your course in probability and statistics and it seems you have learned a lot (or not?). Good for you. I will only ask you a few questions, when you say somewhere there "crack the lottery" what exactly do you mean? Hit the jackpot once, twice or more in a row? Predict x out of y numbers every time or what? and why the government would care , isn't the jackpot hit almost every week even without somebody knowledgeable in probability and statistics "cracking the lotto", whatever do you mean by that.
I think it is there are parallels with predicting weather. The real task is called forecasting. No forecaster is saying they are controlling the weather, of course some ways you expand your possibilities for outcome. Predicting weather is based on data and technologies, the odd person person might be able to do it their head, but there is a developing science in forecasting weather, forecasting crashes, shorting just in time. We can forecast events now much more accurately, so why not have an industry based on predicting which 7 of 49 balls will fall out of a machine within a reasonable probability. No one is saying they are making these numbers fall out of a machine. That is a different task than predicting if a ticket you buy from a quick pick machine will be able to predict which 7 of 49 balls will fall out of a machine, that is a seperate issue.
I am not arguing, it is not adversarial, i am just sayin what if there is a logorithm and a seed. All of us have a range of randomness and predictability. So does the weather. Even being able to navigate the ocean and the sky, used to be out of reach. Now look what we are able to do. Next thing you know we might be able to believe in world peace and solving global hunger, if we give it a chance. All we are talking about is 7 out 49 balls falling out of a machine, not even elegantly. Look what we have been able to do, when we believe we can. It is possible those retailers are winning honestly, technically they are innocent til proven guilty. Maybe some are winning, and some are switching tickets. Never a dull moment. Even noticing the bend in light was considered revolutionary. People think floating in out of space is wonderful. but what about the gravity that keeps us on the ground that is is wonderful too. I am not arguing, am not saying there is no risk no doubt. I am just asking why don't people question the two sets of radomness they face when they spend their hard earned money on lottery tickets. Do they really think that quick pick machine will give them a better chance than their own eyes?
Rob50 said:
People buy tickets thinking they will win big. If lots of people could win at the same time, it would be like just buying a scratch and win, people would lose interest, the lotto pot would become smaller, it could create a spiral. The lottery is sort of like a spiral. The more people play the bigger the pot gets, of course more to it. I am not saying you can tell for certain, forecasters make mistakes all that time, but often they are right. There is a possibility those retailers are winning honestly. They may not even know how they are winning. They may have become an expert through observation. Or they might be switching tickets. There is also the income tax issue, if some retailers have actually cracked the lottery, that would regular income, you don't think the government would be interested in that?
What I am saying it is probably possible that people can and maybe are learning to use computers and systems to predict the winning numbers better than they can by just using the quick pick machines. I think it would be fine if more people could win. If by some fluke, the masses could share millions every weekend and wednesday, of course people with more money, would demand more goods, and prices would rise, causing inflation, it would almost be like printing money, if the government's lottery system was crackable. It is just like full employment, wages would be higher. There are benefits and costs in human misery all the time. I don't think probability distributions are that hard to understand, I think probability distributions are harder to remember at times after they happen than to understand them at the moment they happen, people may even be learning how the system works without realizing it. It is possible those retailers are beating the odds against them without even knowing how they are doing it. They don't deserve our hate, but only our willingness to try to understand, unless it is proven they are switching tickets of course. And then still we should forgive them.
The government is gambling too. Big governemnt is assuming that their machine is perfect, that every number has an equal probability of falling then bouncing, as we hold our breath, only letting go when the ball reaches a full stop. When one looks at the data over a period of several years, such an assumption is defendable.
And who has time too look at the data, religously over a short period of time, lets say 2 or 3 months.
Possibly the biggest myth of all is that the great lotto machine of Canada is perfect.
And who has time too look at the data, religously over a short period of time, lets say 2 or 3 months.
Possibly the biggest myth of all is that the great lotto machine of Canada is perfect.
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exploora said:
hiya, you are right...sat imagery, realtime radar data, barometric pressure, all tangible stuff...even then it is sometimes guess work, there may be a downpour to the south, but just to the north only sprinkles or nothing at all.
lottery is a lot different...sometimes stats & probabilities do help to forecast, other times it is a monkeywrench of a draw...there are times tho when there are a hot trend & a cold trend converging, then BAM! a thunderstorm of a draw appears
llater,
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exploora said:
I have never ever seen any stats on what percentage of lottery wins come from quickpicks...therefore I do not trust them.
Besides, it is true...a quick pick is essentially going through 2 rounds of randomness.
1) The lottery entity gets the draw from the balls, done.
2) A computer belonging to the lottery entity spits out a quick pick that just happens to match their draw. Uh, no...someone should workout the true probability for that!
I'd rather go to my favorite deli and base my pick on the numbers of my favorite sandwiches!
cheers!
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exploora said:
Nah, governments allow gambling for themselves because they know they can get their dirty paws in on it. That is why payout vs. odds is so out of whack, and many do pari-mutuel such as here in CA. They make boatloads of money no matter what.
They cycle through different draw machines, they perform test draws before doin one live.
later,
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You are right, I think if someone was able to zero in on how to pick 4 or 5 winners every draw, they wouldn't tell anyone.
This town is so prudy, you could;t even buy a loto ticket without legimitimzing yourself to the clerk why you are using a credit card, let alone being able to buy a ticket and a deli sandwich, I am sure such an opportunity would make some of us go orgastic.
No one got the 6 numbers on wednesday, I got 3. It seems more people get 3 than 2 and the bonus.
So I guess I should be looking for an accounting course to do, I am waiting for my exam results. I have a ticket for tonight of course. If you have one, good luck.
Surprisingly in my 2nd last class I was the only who appeared to be familiar with using a random number generator. I thought everyone had one, and used it to pick numbers.
This town is so prudy, you could;t even buy a loto ticket without legimitimzing yourself to the clerk why you are using a credit card, let alone being able to buy a ticket and a deli sandwich, I am sure such an opportunity would make some of us go orgastic.
No one got the 6 numbers on wednesday, I got 3. It seems more people get 3 than 2 and the bonus.
So I guess I should be looking for an accounting course to do, I am waiting for my exam results. I have a ticket for tonight of course. If you have one, good luck.
Surprisingly in my 2nd last class I was the only who appeared to be familiar with using a random number generator. I thought everyone had one, and used it to pick numbers.
I know the two sets of randomness is bound to increase the odds, I guess it would be odds 1 in over 13 million combinations from the quick pick, in theory, to match the 1 in over 13 million odd combinations of the great balls falling possibly freely in the randomness of space, where gravity and attributes of the machine would never benefit the player, even in their wildest dreams. That is why I wouldn't buy a ticket that way.
If I won tonight, I think I might go to Sanfrancisco for a deli sandwich, then some suchi, then an ice cap. Then pay off my friends mortgage on her house.
Of course I would be happy picking 3 numbers again. That was fun too.
If I won tonight, I think I might go to Sanfrancisco for a deli sandwich, then some suchi, then an ice cap. Then pay off my friends mortgage on her house.
Of course I would be happy picking 3 numbers again. That was fun too.
I bet, of course I am not saying with 100 percent certainty, the california system would be far more sophisticated than the way it is done in Canada. I am just saying most things are. I haven't been observing the lottos in california just the ones here, and the mode is off centre for recent draws, if you look at a series of recent draws. They do even out in the long term. I have no reason to make that up. Just like the sets of 2 randomness, people are possibly are not even aware they are playing against 2 sets of randomness. Of course the gov is making big bucks. I bet most people are assuming they are playing one set of randomness. Would that be defined as a myth?
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Yup, that is why I have never looked into "lotto systems" for sale. If they worked, lotteries would go outta business.
Lotto is cash only here in CA tsk!
Yup, simple random number generator can actually be very effective for picks...that is if it is not the lottery's quick pick machine hah!
later,
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Lotto is cash only here in CA tsk!
Yup, simple random number generator can actually be very effective for picks...that is if it is not the lottery's quick pick machine hah!
later,
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when people say the odds are like you have a chance of buying 1 winning ticket for every close to 14 million sold, that is not true, if you are getting numbers randomly through the quick pick machine. It would be the odds of getting the right ticket from the machine and the odds 6 out of 49 balls matched the ticket. The key word is pick, you pick the numbers, instead of quick pick machine randomly giving them to you, and that machine I really wonder about, more than the lotto ball machine. It seems like the odds favour Ontario and Quebec.
I think what a person is really trying to get is a combination not a system, you can't predict 6 out 6 every time, it would be statistically impossible.
I discarded 5 winning numbers 3 times out 5 draws, cause i thought they were too frequent. And that frequency distributation is what appears to be what people are sort of observing and comaparing etc, and possibly exploiting, but you have to just focus on recent draws, not 3 or 4 years, then the odds even out. They just sell you a plan I think. That silly hot number cold number way of talking is sort of frivoulizing what a probability distribution is. And a lot of people are probably buying at least 15 tickets at a time after they buy the plan. So who knows what the cost is for them to win. I use about 3 number generators. Once you get the data systemyzed it is not much slower than using the quick pick machine and just buy one at a time. I dont think the quick pick machine would be called an open random number generator, but that is only half of the plan the other half is to compare the numbers you get randomly with skips and drawn numbers then pick. The quick pick is not really picking. Picking implies observing then choosing. Not just holding your breath and getting numbers hoping they are the right ones without being able to use any common sense.
Once you get the numbers from the quick pick machine you cant give them back.
I discarded 5 winning numbers 3 times out 5 draws, cause i thought they were too frequent. And that frequency distributation is what appears to be what people are sort of observing and comaparing etc, and possibly exploiting, but you have to just focus on recent draws, not 3 or 4 years, then the odds even out. They just sell you a plan I think. That silly hot number cold number way of talking is sort of frivoulizing what a probability distribution is. And a lot of people are probably buying at least 15 tickets at a time after they buy the plan. So who knows what the cost is for them to win. I use about 3 number generators. Once you get the data systemyzed it is not much slower than using the quick pick machine and just buy one at a time. I dont think the quick pick machine would be called an open random number generator, but that is only half of the plan the other half is to compare the numbers you get randomly with skips and drawn numbers then pick. The quick pick is not really picking. Picking implies observing then choosing. Not just holding your breath and getting numbers hoping they are the right ones without being able to use any common sense.
Once you get the numbers from the quick pick machine you cant give them back.
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Quite right about picking picks...if a quick pick ends up having numerous sequential numbers such as 1 2 3 4 39, I sure wouldn't have picked it! However, that was actually a recent draw for CA Fantasy 5.
Also, I wouldn't make picks which are all even numbers, or separated by an increment of 6 or whatever.
seeya,
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Also, I wouldn't make picks which are all even numbers, or separated by an increment of 6 or whatever.
seeya,
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