Mathematician Cracks Lottery?

[Icewynd]

Now this is interesting. A Brazilian Mathemetician says that not all lottery combinations have an equal likelihood of being drawn:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2585157/You-CAN-predict-lottery-numbers-Brazilian-mathematician-claims.html

Brazil – hmmmm. Wonder if our friend Jack had anything to do with this?

Good luck!

 

[blitzed]

hiya Icewynd, thanks, I will add it to my chaos of links =b

yup...kinda like on pick3 how triples have about a 1% probability of falling out...makes sense to rule them out unlessya have various indicators pointing to them.

likewise when I was chasing big lottery for a while, I'd play the probabilities...combo patterns, and focus mostly on the numbers at median and just above, and more below...shave off stuff which is in say the 5% outer fringe of probability.

cya,
blitzed

Now this is interesting. A Brazilian Mathemetician says that not all lottery combinations have an equal likelihood of being drawn:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2585157/You-CAN-predict-lottery-numbers-Brazilian-mathematician-claims.html

Brazil – hmmmm. Wonder if our friend Jack had anything to do with this?

Good luck!

 

[Icewynd]

Exploring more deeply, the site is based on the analysis of templates of decade patterns.

For example, the draw 04-17-25-26-39-49 could be seen as fitting the template D0-D1-D2-D2-D3-D4. The website codes these as colours yellow, turquoise, grey, green magenta. Then, the colours are further broken down by the existence of doubles, triples, etc. For example the above draw would be classified as "P" because of the pair 25-26. Two pairs would be "PP", a triple and a pair would be "TP", etc.

In a 6/49 game, we see that about 72% of the combinations start with a number of 9 or lower (D0), but the patterns show that 42% start with a single number from D0 and 24% start with a pair from D0. Triples or higher from D0 are increasingly unlikely.

By types, pairs show up in nearly 80% of combinations -- more than I would have expected! A single pair "P" appears in 14% of combinations, two pair "PP" in 38%, 3 pair "PPP" in 6%, a triple plus a pair "TP" in 20% and a quadruple and a pair "QP" in 1% of the combinations. One triple "T" accounts for 15% of combinations, and two triples "TT" 1% of the time.

The website suggests playing this information in one of two ways:
1. See what has been strong lately, and play that pattern; or
2. See what has been showing up less that expected and play that pattern to come out soon.

There is a lot of detailed information (see the "Guide" tab on the website). I think I would have to simplify it for my tiny brain to handle and maybe just track a couple of the most common patterns.

Good luck!

 

[Frank]

I don't think theres anything new here. The law of large numbers says that anything that is overdue will have more of a tendency to be drawn the longer its overdue. Its all very well knowing that, but the timescales involved make it impossible to pin down when it will happen. For overdue triples you can't even say what YEAR they are going to be drawn in, even when you know they are due, let alone what draw. All very good in theory, but it hasn't helped me win the lottery. Its good for morale because you think you have the edge, but you only do when you keep on winning time after time.

 

[jack]

Hello ice, nothing new, standards from 75% to 80% of the time of departure probalidades Sweepstakes, there will always be many facets to predict numbers
Ok, you do not need to use only the last lottery basis, you can use more previous draws as pivot.acertar 10,20,50 .... all in the case of 49/6, hit 6 numbers there are many variants, then mathematically lotteries can only get to a certain point, ie the focus is 3.4 sees the missing numbers will be random, so the revenue part matemicamente another random, 75/25, random 25% will always have, the important ice ., and set the standard, the number ai
* This or not. I'm more of the 4 groups exemplo49 / 6 = pi pp.ip ii. Where such is ii = 17 (odd and odd) = 34 Another example is odd and even

 

[larbec]

Curious if anyone has tried this system and what was your outcome and opinions? Thanks

 

[Frank]

Ask yourself the following:-
If instead of numbers on the balls they had symbols or pictures, for example of animals.

Lotto result : Dog, Chameleon, eagle, Rinoceros, lion, shark. bonus ball Barracuda.

1. Would we know exactly and uniquely what the result was ? ...YES

2. If a lottery ticket had the same animals on it as the result, would this be a winning ticket? ...YES

3. would it be possible to track the appearances and skips of each ball or combination of balls ? ............YES


So how can the shape of a squiggle on a ball be really meaningful. Thats what we are doing when we attach importance to' decade's or 'families' artifically created because of the structure of the symbols we write on the balls. Yes it really does create families of balls we can track, but you can do the same with animal symbols too. The birds, the reptiles, the pacyderms, the insects and the fish families.
Will this help you win the lottery ? ........You decide.

 

[Icewynd]

Agreed, Frank.

And I think even an uninformed person, if given a quick pick lottery ticket that had 3 dogs, 2 fish and an elephant would know that that ticket was not very likely to win.

On the other hand, why not tailor your picks to the most likely patterns?

Good luck!

 

[Frank]

But that's the question. What are the most likely patterns? To take the idea to extremes, you could mark each ball with chinese symbols. Ermm... what patterns ?

 

[Icewynd]

But that's the question. What are the most likely patterns? To take the idea to extremes, you could mark each ball with chinese symbols. Ermm... what patterns ?

Well, that's what the website lays out, in terms of decades and doubles/triples.

As I said above:

By types, pairs show up in nearly 80% of combinations -- more than I would have expected! A single pair "P" appears in 14% of combinations, two pair "PP" in 38%, 3 pair "PPP" in 6%, a triple plus a pair "TP" in 20% and a quadruple and a pair "QP" in 1% of the combinations. One triple "T" accounts for 15% of combinations, and two triples "TT" 1% of the time.
​

So, it makes sense to play combinations containing one or two pairs, but not three pairs, and to avoid combinations with two triples or a quadruple. Sure, they happen, but so infrequently that you could wait years between one instance and the next.

Good luck!

 

[Frank]

I agree with your logic, Icewynd, Ive used it for years, but its all old hat. Lotteries don't actually work like that. Those probabilities apply to the whole list of all available combinations. Those probabilities will be true when the lottery (if its' a 6/49) has had all of 13,983,816 draws. Then each combination will have had its chance to come out. The problem is, in our lifetime if we have 2 draws per week and we witness 70 years of draws we will see 7280 results, that's 0.05206% of all the possible combinations ! That's our lifetime sample of all the possible results, a tiny tiny snapshot of the bigger picture. Those ocurrences of a double and a quad , a double and a triple could come out all in the same decade, then not appear again for 50 years. For very low probability stuff, theres nothing in the statistics that says things are going to be evenly spaced out so we know when they are going to hit or miss in our lifetime. For this reason the information is interesting but not much practical use. The only truths are that any combination can be drawn next since the lottery has no memory and that after 4004 draws a previous result has a 50/50 chance of repeating.

The practicalities of using those percentages you quote mean that if you do opt for a medium populous group like the two pair group, you are faced with a choice of 38% of all available combinations, more than 5 million, with a 1.6 to 1 against chance that you picked the wrong group anyway.

The 'back to square one' rule applies:-

if p is the probability of the family occurring and n is the number of combinations in the family, then p x n is a constant equal to the total number of combinations in the lottery. You still have a dilemma and difficult choices to make. They help by breaking down the decision process into more than one decision, but I don't think they improve the chances of winning.

I think the reality is, if you think its helping, then its helping.

 

[Icewynd]

I think the reality is, if you think its helping, then its helping.

Hmmm... not sure about helping, more like not hurting.

It is the nature of the game that the player's options will be overwhelmed by the possible combinations.

Even in the number-pickers challenge, where we are selecting 20 of the 49 numbers, it is quite rare for anyone to get 5, 6 or all 7 of the picked numbers in our selected sets. Even if one knew that all 6 winning numbers were selected, to win with that set of 20 one would have to play 38,760 combinations to guarantee the winning ticket. Don't know about you, but that's a bit beyond my resources!

So, the difference that any of our "strategies" or "systems" makes is miniscule. Maybe we should just grab some random numbers and have done with it?

But, there's no fun in that!

Good luck!

 

[jack]

Hello ice, you can create a system with pivot wheels (fixed, reference numbers, base) on each of the lines. Pivot System can tell you the system requires the user to select two numbers Pivot the rest of the numbers will turn around. Some may call this an ace just two numbers, key, king, monarch, wheel number is usually a wheel in name only to the extent that the entire collection of combinations can be disposed on a wheel tester to determine coverage. However, the Pivot System will not test well, key number will not test well, why should only test runs as part of a sub strata of the entire wheel to know what the tester does not, what power prize one or two correct numbers in each winning combination will be worth it. Unlike most wheels, Pivot System uses two numbers every other game on the pivot. Thus, in a Pick-6 game when the two numbers Pivot prove correct, there must be at least 4, 3 numbers winning tickets and this is done with all the other numbers that only appear vez.Isto means that the minimum version of System pivot can be played at low cost. One can of course build a part number like 3 or 4 a wheel 2if4of4 say that number 4 would ensure multiple wins when the two numbers Pivot to be correct. Pivot numbers are best selected from strong pairs that tend to appear in the game.

 

[Frank]

Hmmm... not sure about helping, more like not hurting.

It is the nature of the game that the player's options will be overwhelmed by the possible combinations.

Even in the number-pickers challenge, where we are selecting 20 of the 49 numbers, it is quite rare for anyone to get 5, 6 or all 7 of the picked numbers in our selected sets. Even if one knew that all 6 winning numbers were selected, to win with that set of 20 one would have to play 38,760 combinations to guarantee the winning ticket. Don't know about you, but that's a bit beyond my resources!

So, the difference that any of our "strategies" or "systems" makes is miniscule. Maybe we should just grab some random numbers and have done with it?

But, there's no fun in that!

Good luck!

Yes, Icewynd, you've summed it up nicely. I think playing the odds on the higher probability events like skips and recent follow on numbers gives a slight edge over random numbers and that's the best anyone can hope for.

 

[jack]

Hello, you can arm the wheels so example
Line = 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
* The pair will be chosen by statistical delay the pair 02.07
Then the pair 02 07 if the pivot (will appear on all the bets)
* Other numbers may not be the same row 01-10
Why par02,07 already have, and the other numbers of the other lines have to be
One number per line are repeating the position of the pair number can not be the 2nd and 7th
* Example = 11,12,13,14,15 16,17,18,19,20, can not keep numrero 12, and 17
Because it is the same position of 02.07, and so may not appear with other lines
If you chose the 2nd line 16, the line can not have 26 21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30
Why is the 6th position, etc. ..