Math Help

[Karnac]

I'm looking for a little math help to decide whether this system I'm reassessing has merit or are it's results the expected values or greater.

I backchecked 100 draws.
Using 15 numbers each draw at a particular setting I hit for a minimum of 3 numbers in 44 draws.
Here is the breakdown:
29 x 3 numbers
13 x 4 "
2 x 5 "

A second setting using 15 numbers hit a minimum 3 in 40 draws.
Here is the breakdown:
26 x 3 numbers
7 x 4 "
5 x 5 "
2 x 6 "

A third setting using 15 numbers hit a minimum of 3 in 39 draws
Here is the breakdown:
26 x 3 numbers
9 x 4 "
3 x 5 "
1 X 7 " Amazing

Bonus incl.
My question ... Mathwise, is this normal distribution of hits or above normal and worth pursuing ?

 

[hot4]

Karnac,

from a set of 15 numbers (in a lotto 6/49) it's expected (without bonus):

3_hits: 1 in 5,14 draws
4_hits: 1 in 18,26 draws
5_hits: 1 in 136,96 draws
6_hits: 1 in 2794 draws

In 100 draws expect:

19,45 *3_hits*
5,47 *4_hits*
0,73 *5_hits*
0,035 *6_hits*

Indeed the 3 sets hit better than expected in 3_hits, 4_hits and 5_hits but that can be caused by the bonus number. I suggest you to make the calculations without bonus, namely for these three prizes. If you want to study the 2+b and the 2nd prizes, then include the bonus.

 

[GillesD]

Probabilities for a good system

Karnac,

Using the formula =COMBIN(15,N)*COMBIN(49-15,6-N)/COMBIN(49,6) where N is the number of winning numbers, I get the following probabilities:

- getting 3 numbers right: 19.47%;
- getting 4 numbers right: 5.48%;
- getting 5 numbers right: 0.73%;
- getting 6 or more numbers right: 0.04%.

Your winning ratios are definitely higher than that, so you may have something.

I hope you will use this system of yours in a very formal experiment for another 6/49 lottery in the new year. Hope to see you there.

hHot4 - you beat me to it, but at least we agree on the values

 

[hot4]

GillesD,
let's run when Karnac post results without bonus

 

[Karnac]

Thank you gentlemen for assisting. Here are the values without the bonus ball.

Using 15 numbers I hit a minimum 3 in 28 draws

Here is the breakdown:
20 x 3 numbers
7 x 4 "
1 x 6 "

A second setting using 15 numbers hit a minimum 3 in 28 draws.
Here is the breakdown:
22 x 3 numbers
5 x 4 "
1 x 5 "


A third setting using 15 numbers hit a minimum of 3 in 29 draws
Here is the breakdown:
25 x 3 numbers
2 x 4 "
2 x 5 "

 

[Grandmaster]

Karnac,

Are you referring to your 6 out of 15 Gail Howard "My secrets of winning" chart 7?

How do you press F4 it is a software?

 

[Karnac]

Karnac,

Are you referring to your 6 out of 15 Gail Howard "My secrets of winning" chart 7?

How do you press F4 it is a software?

Welcome to the Forum, Grandmaster.

I am using GH Advantage Chart 7 to pick these numbers.....Search Karnac Theory on this forum and there are detailed examples of the theory. Best of luck in the new year. Questions always answered.

 

[Grandmaster]

Thank you Karnac

 

[Grandmaster]

Karnac,

Using the formula =COMBIN(15,N)*COMBIN(49-15,6-N)/COMBIN(49,6) where N is the number of winning numbers, I get the following probabilities:

- getting 3 numbers right: 19.47%;
- getting 4 numbers right: 5.48%;
- getting 5 numbers right: 0.73%;
- getting 6 or more numbers right: 0.04%.

Your winning ratios are definitely higher than that, so you may have something.

I hope you will use this system of yours in a very formal experiment for another 6/49 lottery in the new year. Hope to see you there.

hHot4 - you beat me to it, but at least we agree on the values

GillesD, Karnac,

LottoStatistcsXLp (Nick Koutras) has the next formula for 15 numbers in average:

Wins 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Expected 6.3 23.5 34 24.6 9.5 2 0.2 0

Then I would expect 25 hits of 3 in 100,
also 10 hits of 4 in 100 , 2 of 5 in 100 and 0.2 of 6 in 100..


GillesD,

Your formula is correct, only change to 7 instead of 6 in case of 6/49+B:

=COMBIN(15,N)*COMBIN(49-15,7-N)/COMBIN(49,7)


Karnac,

I suppose your results are for 6/49+B, if your test is for 6/49 only then GillesD formula is correct..

Good Luck