Lotto Forecasting - Part II (I'm back)

T

Tarantula

Member
Ladies and Gentlemen - I'm back.

Evidently I waited just long enough for my first thread to be removed (it was here yesterday, when I looked).

For those who were following my original thread - my mother was diagnosed with cancer, and I suffered two major system crashes all within a few days. Mom is now undergoing chemotherapy and beginning to do much better - the prognosis is good, the computers however haven't fared as well but I've managed to get my forecasting system back to an operational status using one of my previously retired computers.

Since then I have had to rebuild my systems, and redo some of my forecasting program, and completely redo my web-site from scratch (I have a bad habit of not backing up frequently - I've always had a do as I say, not as I do attitude when it comes to computers - so something like this happens to me every 7 or 8 years - fortunately this time I only lost about six weeks work, but recovering is always painful).

Presently, I'm almost back to where I was before the system crashes (in some ways I'm actually further ahead) - the benefit of doing things twice, is the second time it's easier to avoid some pitfalls, the drawback is that you never have exactly what you had.

My web-site showing forecasts, and results is at:

http://www.weblotto.org

*** Special Note to Nick K. - this is a completely different server and web site (other than the page that sends you there) - please check and let me know if you still have that nasty "Active-X" issue.

This time, I also included a feature that will email my forecasts to you for your chosen lotteries, also I'm now forecasting 67 lotteries (including most of the Canadian pick 6 lotteries) - the database is growing significantly so please be patient waiting for some of the pages to load (database performance is one of the things I'll be working on, but I'm more concerned with the actual forecasting, parameter optimization, and displaying the forecasts / results in an easily understandable manner).

Please take a few minutes to check out the new site and let me know what you think.

Thanks in advance, I appreciate your feedback.

Hopefully we'll all be able to start playing on their money. Good luck!
 
T

Tarantula

Member
"They" are the people who run whatever lottery you play, in my case it is the state of Missouri - I'm currently playing on their money - with any luck I'll hit another second prize ($750) soon, and continue to play on their money.
 
T

tomtom

Member
Tarantula said:
"They" are the people who run whatever lottery you play, in my case it is the state of Missouri - I'm currently playing on their money - with any luck I'll hit another second prize ($750) soon, and continue to play on their money.
Click to expand...

That depends on lottery, some lotteries provide officially straight 50 % or a bit less or more return, including JP rollovers. If not and there aren't any JP rollovers, quite a few players might think then is sometimes desirable that the lottery is not computer generated and/or clearly states the draws are truly random.

Well, it seems you are quite sure you'll hit that second prize soon since saying with "any" luck... Usually for a second prize in any lottery a lot of luck is more than desirable..

However, :goodluck:
 
T

Tarantula

Member
Second Prize

I've been following lotteries since I was about 12, in my most recent attempts to predict (or forecast as I have decided to call it now) lotteries I am working with a 5/44 (twice daily drawings)here locally (it has the lowest odds of the ones available to me).

I know that to pick the 5 numbers drawn would be an insurmountable(sp) task, so I shoot for second prize and actually pick more than 5 numbers to increase my chances as well as using wheels to make the most efficient use of my lottery dollar.

My most recent run started in December of last year, since then (not playing every drawing, and only playing from 6 to 66 lines) I have hit 3/5($25) more times than I can remember for sure and 4/5($750) once. During that time my systems manage to find a 4/5 frequently(as you can see on my site) - it's just a matter of playing the right system at the right time. On December 27th (I played every drawing between the 20th and 30th of December 6 to 14 lines most of the time) I decided to play a big system - 46 lines, at the last minute I changed my mind and decided to play an even bigger system with 66 lines - when the results came down I won about $150 (net), if I had played the original 46 line system I would have won about $1800 (net). I still have the completed playslips from that system as a reminder to myself that I can succeed at this endeavor.

In January, I decided that I should make my system so that it works with any lottery so that when I'm out of town I can play other lotteries if I so desire, and to share with others. Since then I have picked jackpot tickets as follows:

22 Jan 05 - Virginia Cash 5
05 Feb 05 - Pennsylvania Cash 5
21 Feb 05 - Missouri Show Me Paydown (this is where I hit my 4/5 - I should have played a different system and I'd have hit for $50K)
03 Apr 05 - District of Columbia Hot 5 (these results still show on my system, the others were lost with my system crash - but I have a notebook where I note my jackpot picks and some other details for each lottery)

I only keep the last 15 or so drawings worth of tickets due to the size of the database, so even the recent one will disappear soon. Now yes, these are pick 5 lotteries with lower odds, and I generate around 2000 lines for each drawing - even with that in mind I think 4 jackpot picks in less than 4 months is good.

With that in mind, I'm 100% certain that as long as I keep playing I'll eventually hit another second prize, and I might get lucky and hit the jackpot (while I don't believe in random, I do believe in luck). Also, I am working on new analysis and optimizing the existing parameters I have set and I believe that my forecasts will improve as well as getting some better wheels into the mix to make things even better. It's just a matter of time, and I'm a patient man.
 
T

tomtom

Member
Re: Second Prize

Tarantula said:
I've been following lotteries since I was about 12, in my most recent attempts to predict (or forecast as I have decided to call it now) lotteries I am working with a 5/44 (twice daily drawings)here locally (it has the lowest odds of the ones available to me).

I know that to pick the 5 numbers drawn would be an insurmountable(sp) task, so I shoot for second prize and actually pick more than 5 numbers to increase my chances as well as using wheels to make the most efficient use of my lottery dollar.

My most recent run started in December of last year, since then (not playing every drawing, and only playing from 6 to 66 lines) I have hit 3/5($25) more times than I can remember for sure and 4/5($750) once. During that time my systems manage to find a 4/5 frequently(as you can see on my site) - it's just a matter of playing the right system at the right time. On December 27th (I played every drawing between the 20th and 30th of December 6 to 14 lines most of the time) I decided to play a big system - 46 lines, at the last minute I changed my mind and decided to play an even bigger system with 66 lines - when the results came down I won about $150 (net), if I had played the original 46 line system I would have won about $1800 (net). I still have the completed playslips from that system as a reminder to myself that I can succeed at this endeavor.

In January, I decided that I should make my system so that it works with any lottery so that when I'm out of town I can play other lotteries if I so desire, and to share with others. Since then I have picked jackpot tickets as follows:

22 Jan 05 - Virginia Cash 5
05 Feb 05 - Pennsylvania Cash 5
21 Feb 05 - Missouri Show Me Paydown (this is where I hit my 4/5 - I should have played a different system and I'd have hit for $50K)
03 Apr 05 - District of Columbia Hot 5 (these results still show on my system, the others were lost with my system crash - but I have a notebook where I note my jackpot picks and some other details for each lottery)

I only keep the last 15 or so drawings worth of tickets due to the size of the database, so even the recent one will disappear soon. Now yes, these are pick 5 lotteries with lower odds, and I generate around 2000 lines for each drawing - even with that in mind I think 4 jackpot picks in less than 4 months is good.

With that in mind, I'm 100% certain that as long as I keep playing I'll eventually hit another second prize, and I might get lucky and hit the jackpot (while I don't believe in random, I do believe in luck). Also, I am working on new analysis and optimizing the existing parameters I have set and I believe that my forecasts will improve as well as getting some better wheels into the mix to make things even better. It's just a matter of time, and I'm a patient man.
Click to expand...

It seems the 5/44 lottery you play has quite fine odds, and it’s pretty unusual seeing a $25 return for a 3/5 these days . BTW, regarding the second - 4/5 prize in your lottery game, most likely you know you would need about 6650 lines to get a sure one…In any 6/49 lotterry for a sure 5/6 (third prize) you would need something like ten times more - or more than 62000 lines.
 
T

Tarantula

Member
I should clarify the payouts for my lottery, the actual payout table is:

5 of 5 numbers $50,000 tax paid* 1 in 1,086,008
4 of 5 numbers $250 / $750 (if no 5/5 winner) 1 in 5,569
3 of 5 numbers $10 / $25 (if no 5/5 winner) 1 in 147
2 of 5 numbers Free Ticket / $2 (if no 5/5 winner) 1 in 12

However, 5/5 is only picked about once a month (mostly in the evening) with 2 drawings per day, so far I've never played on a drawing where someone hit 5/5, when I do it will be a let down - but still a victory. Based on the payout information the lottery provides on their site about twice as many people play in the evening as in the morning, I mostly play in the mornings but my second prize occured on an evening drawing - as did the missed opportunity I mentioned in my other post.

I just checked my site and in 6 of the last 16 drawings I've generated at least 1 4/5 ticket.

Assuming your numbers are right (I never really checked into it, but was real curious), if I'm doing in 2000 lines what should take 6000 lines - I must be on the right track, I just need to fine tune some aspects of my system.

I did notice before the crash that I was picking 5/6 fairly well in the pick 6 lotteries. West Virginia has a 6/25 lottery - there 5 out of the last 10 drawings I've generated at least 1 5/6 ticket. The Canadian lotteries have just started forecasting so I'll have to wait and see how they do, but they probably won't do as well until I've got enough data to optimize the parameters for them. I'm real curious how the forecasts will go for the Italian 6/90+1 lottery, that could be a real challenge.
 
T

Tarantula

Member
Beaker,
Thanks for finding it, I'm not sure how I missed it.

ComboManiac,
Thanks, Mom is doing very well since starting radiation and chemotherapy. Six weeks ago I didn't know wether to cry or wind my watch, with her doing well the world seems better if not right.

Everyone ...
I realize it's a pick 5 victory, but today I picked 5/5 in the US - Connecticut Cash 5 (5/39) in 240 lines. That is my 5th pick 5 jackpot forecasted this year. With a little fine tuning, and some adjustments here and there - I think I'll have something.
 
C

charles2

Member
Tarantula said:

Everyone ...
I realize it's a pick 5 victory, but today I picked 5/5 in the US - Connecticut Cash 5 (5/39) in 240 lines. That is my 5th pick 5 jackpot forecasted this year. With a little fine tuning, and some adjustments here and there - I think I'll have something.
Click to expand...

so you just won $100,000 tonight?
 
T

Tarantula

Member
I wish!

I don't play all of the lotteries, or all of the tickets I generate. I'd have to travel over 1000 miles to play that one. The lotteries that I actually play are the ones local to me (Missouri).
 
T

thornc

Member
Glad to ear that you mother is better.

I tried again to mail you the italian histories but you mail server rejects mine!
 
T

Tarantula

Member
Thornc,
I'm not sure what the problem could be, can you post the text of the rejection so that I can try to figure out what happened?
 
Brad

Brad

Member
BC49

Well, this is the second time I tried your forecast and guess what? The first 10 preds hit for 3+B. I played a quick CoverMaster wheel with 4 lines and snagged a 2+B and a 3 hitter, $15 for 4 bucks.

Not bad at all.


first 10 Forecast: 13 , 16 , 23 , 34 , 35 , 36 , 39 , 22 , 15 , 24

Winners were: 7-10-24-35-36-37 23B


When I first looked at the forecast noticing the 34,35,36 consecutives I wasn't too thrilled. But look at the winners 35,36,37 ... any closer and ... well you get the picture. One other observation is that there are no 40s in the forecast ... none were drawn.

So the shotgun worked both times I tried so far, the first shot a while ago gave me a $10 win. If this continues I may just discard my slingshot ;)



Cheers


PS now I fully expect to get reprimanded (by CM) for playing the BC49 ... cuz I said I wouldn't ... but this is where I'll gently point out I'm playing on their money so far :D
 
Brad

Brad

Member
CN49

The forecast for the National 649 wasn't too bad either,

first 20 Forecast:

32 , 10 , 12 , 30 , 1 , 40 , 7 , 14 , 18 , 19
23 , 24 , 25 , 27 , 28 , 29 , 8 , 9 , 35 , 37

Winners: 18-19-23-29-33-45 8B


that's 3/11, 4/16 or 4+B/17 ... :agree2:
 
Last edited:
C

ComboManiac

Member
BRAD

No Brad

Go ahead and play....who knows you might get 4/6 or even 5/6 soon :agree:
That is encouraging of course...

I think Tarantula will beat all other programs in the long Run...

Hopefully he can get that S7 :lol:
 
T

Tarantula

Member
Everyone -
Mom sends thanks for your thoughts and best wishes. She is doing very well and even though she still has 3 more chemotherapy sessions to go has gone back to work (although I won't let her push it).

Brad,
I'm glad that my forecasts have produced winners for you (even though they are small - something's better than nothing).

I understand what you mean about the consecutives, I have experimented and can remove that from the forecast but in the past doing that makes the results go bad - so for now I'm going to leave it that way.

Keep in mind that for that Canadian Pick 6's I currently have only 12 drawings worth of data, once I get around 30 drawings worth I'll start to optimize my parameters to improve the forecasts (I was much further ahead in that respect before my system crashed).

ComboManiac,
Thanks for the vote of confidence. S7 forecasts coming soon - I only have 7 drawings of data for that one, and I require 10 for forecasting.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Sidebar

Top