lotto 6/43 odds calculation

[judoguy79]

Hi everyone, I live in Japan and play lotto 6/43. Odds for this lotto are 1 in 6096454 but also here we have a bonus number system which gives you an extra chance to win, ex: you pick 6 numbers and lottery picks 6+1(bonus) if your 5 numbers match with 5 numbers from the pick and your sixth number matches to the bonus number not the original pick you still win the jackpot. I hope I could explain it.
How do I calculate odds for this lotto type?
Do you think this affects the game strategy?
Thanks for replies.

 

[johnph77]

Hit..|....Poss|.......Odds
..6..|.......1|.6096454.00
..5+B|.......6|.1016075.67
..5..|.....216|...28224.32
..4+B|.....540|...11289.73
..4..|....9450|.....645.13
..3+B|...12600|.....483.85
..3..|..142800|......42.69
..2+B|..107100|......56.92
..2..|..883575|.......6.90
..1+B|..353430|......17.25
..1..|.2261952|.......2.70
..0+B|..376992|......16.17
..0..|.1947792|.......3.13
.TL..|.6096454|

If you need to know the formulas:

http://www.johnph77.com/math/lo.html

No ads, nothing to sell, for informational purposes only.

 

[blitzed]

sounds like a good game

as ever, way to go on the rundown johnph77!

later,
blitzed

 

[judoguy79]

Thanks Johnph77 that explains alot, it seems like I have more chanses to win than 6/49 lotto.
Do you have any link where I could learn more about pucks for 6/43, or any program I can apply to 6/43 lotto?
Thanks again

 

[johnph77]

judoguy79 -

Sorry, I don't do picks or predictions - I just provide the amth for those who would.

I have no information regarding amounts of bets and payouts from which I can calculate payout percentages for this game. How much trouble would it be for you to supply me with that type of information?

Thanks in advance,

John

 

[judoguy79]

Hi johnph77
It depends on how detailed info you looking for
Ex: last weeks results
5 tickets won the jack pot and each ticket got about 1 million $,
21 tickets won 5+bonus they got 150000$ each
650 tickets got 5 or 4+bonus and got about 7000$ each
some 40846 tickets won 100$ each (I was one of them!)
and lastly some 666,072 tickets won 10$ prices
total sum given away in prizes is about 50 million $ each week, the price of one ticket is about 1,75$, a bit expensive but hey whats cheap in Japan
But I have no idea how many tickets are played nationwide.
Does this give some general idea about lotto 6/43?

It sounds like lotto 6/43 is more people oriented than 6/49 as you have almost double the chance, or is it just an image? what do you think?

It might seem that I am asking simple questions, it is because I am new to lotto, I just started 3 weeks ago and already won 100$ spending 10$ so I am very exsited, please help me with some more info.

Thank you
Thank you

 

[johnph77]

Some assumptions made in creating this chart:

6/43`|``Bet|`Hit|``````Poss|```Odds - 1::|````Payout|`TL`Payout|````Pct
`````|`1.75|```6|`````````1|`6,096,454.00|`1,000,000|`1,000,000|``9.37%
`````|`````|`5+B|`````````6|`1,016,075.67|```150,000|```900,000|``8.44%
`````|`````|```5|```````216|````28,224.32|`````7,000|`1,512,000|`14.17%
`````|`````|`4+B|```````540|````11,289.73|`````7,000|`3,780,000|`35.43%
`````|`````|```4|`````9,450|```````645.13|```````100|```945,000|``8.86%
`````|`````|`3+B|````12,600|```````483.85|````````10|```126,000|``1.18%
`````|`````|```3|```142,800|````````42.69|`````````0|`````````0|``0.00%
`````|`````|`2+B|```107,100|````````56.92|`````````0|`````````0|``0.00%
`````|`````|```2|```883,575|`````````6.90|`````````0|`````````0|``0.00%
`````|`````|`1+B|```353,430|````````17.25|`````````0|`````````0|``0.00%
`````|`````|```1|`2,261,952|`````````2.70|`````````0|`````````0|``0.00%
`````|`````|`0+B|```376,992|````````16.17|`````````0|`````````0|``0.00%
`````|`````|```0|`1,947,792|`````````3.13|`````````0|`````````0|``0.00%
Total`Winners```|````22,813|```````267.24|``````````|`8,263,000|`77.45%

Not a bad payout percentage but long odds of winning.

gl

j

 

[judoguy79]

Thank you Johnph77,
I think the payouts are even more, cause you get paid 100$ if you get 3+bonus number and you get paid 10$ for 3 or 2+bonus too.

Also I visited this website http://www.liveemerald.com FAQ section and they explain that picks idea is nonsence and they keep saying that there only one way to win the lotto and thats CHANCE do you agree? Here are some quotes from site:

Likelyhood that the previous draws' numbers won't come out
Disagree: The chances of randomly picking up a number that has already come out the week before is the same as picking up any other number.
Numbers that haven't come out for a long while a more likely to come out
Disagree: Chances of a number being drawn DO NOT depend on time.
Excluding extreme combinations (such as 1-2-3-4-5-6 or 1-2-3-47-48-49)
Disagree: Any number has the same chance to be drawn, no matter if it is a consecutive number of the previous or not.
Playing multiples of 5 (such as 5-10-15-20-25-30)
Disagree: Any number has the same chance to be drawn, no matter if it is a multiple of 5 or not.
Not playing all numbers lower than 31 (as many people use dates for producing a combination)
Disagree: Any number has the same chance to be drawn, no matter whether it is lover equal or higher than 31.

Please let me know what you think about this explanations, it sounds like mathematically right but how about if we look at from statistical point?

Thank you for your patience and help.

Judoguy79.

 

[johnph77]

Judoguy79 -

I'd have my doubts about the additional payouts, as they'd take the payout percentage to near or over 100%, and lotteries aren't in business to give money away.

Mathematically, liveemerald is correct, but that hasn't stopped thousands of people from devising systems in an attempt to give them an edge on future draws. One can "trend" numbers four ways, for instance. "Hot" numbers can stay hot or they can chill, and "cold" numbers won't occur again or they will heat up. One can start venturing into probabilities rather than possibilities. A good example of probability, for instance, is the likelihood of a set of numbers repeating itself. An example of that is, in a 6/49 matrix, there are 13,983,816 possibilities. Should one conduct that many draws, however, it is highly unlikely all combinations will occur. In the unlikely event all but one of them occur in, say N-1 draws, the likelihood of the last combination being drawn in the very next draw is still 1::13,983,816. As a matter of fact, somewhere between the 30% to 40% range of the total possible draws, the likelihood of a set of six numbers repeating in that list goes to better than even. WHICH set, though, is unpredictable.

Sums, root sums and positional frequency are other lottery analysis tools, but they're still unable to predict what exact six numbers will be drawn in the next draw. Ther is a belief that these tools can increase one's chances of winning lower-tier prizes as well as decreasing the odds of hitting a jackpot, but the only way of doing that that I know of is to buy more tickets - and that will prove to be self-defeating in the long run.

Some will beat the odds and claim a jackpot - and the next winner may be you. That's why it's called "gambling".

 

[blitzed]

Of course these are games of "chance." However, the draws that trickle out have to follow probability to some degree.

I am not a believer of trying to predict based upon entire draw history, as that leaves a gaping hole for anomalies.

Prediction based upon smaller samplings is much more reasonable, ones which giveya an edge betting against probabilities of say 7% & below. Not many numbers meet that criteria, but ofttimes it'll successfully reduce the number playfield by 4 or more numbers per slot at least for a base strategy.

seeya,
blitzed

 

[judoguy79]

Thanks Blitzed,

Thats what I did last week and won 100$ I was excited, not so much for 100$ but because my system worked. And then start searching for sites, forums and found this one which is great forum, especially because everyone seem like serious, nice and smart.
Do you think having some base numbers which have the most frequency and playing them every week is good idea? EX 4 base numbers and 2 rotating?

Thank you

 

[GillesD]

Thank you Johnph77,
Not playing all numbers lower than 31 (as many people use dates for producing a combination)
Disagree: Any number has the same chance to be drawn, no matter whether it is lover equal or higher than 31.

Judoguy79.

I agree that any number has the same chance of being drawn as any other but if you choose a few numbers higher than 31 (1-31 being birthday numbers), then the payout will most likely be higher since you will not have to split the winning amount with as many winners. Quite a few people pick numbers from birthdays of family members.

And a regular sequence of winning numbers (such as 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 and 12) can come out and actually did come out. Just check draw #670 of Lotto 6/49.

 

[blitzed]

nice to win something judoguy79!

I created a spreadsheet for you to demonstrate a way to explore probability strategy. Grab the 643_Lottery.zip from this link:
http://crazynuts.hollosite.com/lottery_spreadsheets/

I don't know if you will be able to view the probability chart...I use OpenOffice, but save as MS Excel format.

I did a test scenario on 100 random pseudo-picks for your 6/43 game. 100 draws is chosen because I see only a 9.51% probability of a number never having been drawn at that point. Anyway, you'll see an example of how I would filter to play either a 82.05% or 76.19% number playfield.

If you replace my fake draws with the last 100 real 6/43 draws, then you can test strategies. Sometimes I have very good luck accurately reducing my number playfield with such probability filters.

good luck!
blitzed

 

[judoguy79]

Thanks blitzed,

I tried it, entered 100 draws and got some confusing number distribution report can you please explain how it works?

Also do you know any engine which can give me all combinations of best numbers ex 2,7,11,13,18,22,27,30,36,39,42 is there any excel file which can give all 462 combination wtih this numbers.

Thank you again.
Thank you.

 

[blitzed]

Hello, you are most welcome judoguy79

I updated the spreadsheet, please download the new version. I forgot column NUM6 in the 643_Distro worksheet, sorry.

Anyway, here is an explanation of the 643_Distro worksheet:

column A has the ball numbers 1 through 43.

columns B through G are ball slots NUM1 through NUM6.

column H tells you the total number of times a ball number has appeared in winning tickets.

I used conditional formatting to BOLD numbers that fall into lower probabilties, so DON'T play those ones. If you want to change the probability criteria, simply change the conditional formatting for the columns.

Right now column H is set to BOLD values greater than 16. On columns B through G, values above 3 are BOLD.

You can try placing your numbers into a wheel.

This link has many lottery wheels...simply use search & replace to plug your numbers into a wheel.
http://www.ccrwest.org/cover/HIGH.html

Examples of lottery wheels for 11 numbers:
6 picks to match 2:
http://www.ccrwest.org/cover/t_pages/t2/k6/C_11_6_2.html.gz

11 picks to match 3:
http://www.ccrwest.org/cover/t_pages/t3/k6/C_11_6_3.html.gz

32 picks to match 4:
http://www.ccrwest.org/cover/t_pages/t4/k6/C_11_6_4.html.gz

cheers!
blitzed

 

[judoguy79]

Thanks blitzed

I checked your new sheet out, it works fine.
Did I understand right that the numbers with higher frequency in my last 100 draws should be out of my picks, cause column H is highlighting all numbers which appeared more than 16 times?
I was thinking other way round as the numbers with higher frequency will likely appear more. Also 643 probability sheet its covered with NAME? error why is that?
And lottery wheels seem very confusing since I have never used one, can please explain how it works?

Thank you.

 

[blitzed]

hello judoguy79,

I guess you need to click the H column, then click Format, then click Conditonal Formatting, and change the number 15 to a higher value. Also try a different cell style maybe. I use OpenOffice Calc, I don't have MS Excel...so I am not sure what the formatting looks like in MS Excel. Ah, I will try to check it at work tomorrow.

The probability sheet displays errors because of a glitch saving from OpenOffice Calc to MS Excel. You can try to fix it like this:

1) Click upper left of sheet above 1 and next to column A...that should highlight the entire sheet.

2) Click Edit, then click Find & Replace.

3) In the Search for box enter:
;

4) In the replace box enter:
; (with a space after it)

5) Click Replace all

sorry for the trouble...if you can't figure it out, I'll try to fix it at work in excel.

blitzed

 

[blitzed]

judoguy79,

here is an example of how to use a lottery wheel...using this example I gave to you earlier...6 picks to match 2:
http://www.ccrwest.org/cover/t_pages...11_6_2.html.gz

It looks like this:
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 7 8 9 10 11
2 3 4 7 8 9
2 3 4 5 10 11
5 6 7 8 9 10
1 2 3 4 6 11

paste it into a Notepad document, then change it to this:
N01 N02 N03 N04 N05 N06
N01 N07 N08 N09 N10 N11
N02 N03 N04 N07 N08 N09
N02 N03 N04 N05 N10 N11
N05 N06 N07 N08 N09 N10
N01 N02 N03 N04 N06 N11

save this as your template for future wheeling

then say your 11 numbers are 03 07 10 14 19 21 23 28 32 37 41

search & replace your numbers into the wheel, click Edit, click Replace, Find what? N01 Replace With? 03, click Replace All, etc.

When finished, your resulting wheel from your 11 numbers would look like this:
03 07 10 14 19 21
03 23 28 32 37 41
07 10 14 23 28 32
07 10 14 19 37 41
19 21 23 28 32 37
03 07 10 14 21 41

cheers!
blitzed

 

[blitzed]

hello judoguy79, don't bother trying to fix the spreadsheet in Excel...I tried at work but couldn't. I've stumbled upon incompatibilities between Calc & Excel, sorry.

I'll upload the spreadsheet for OpenOffice Calc later. Then ifya wish, you can install OpenOffice to view it properly.

seeya,
blitzed

 

[blitzed]

judoguy79,

I uploaded the OpenOffice version of the spreadsheet as 643_Lottery_OO.zip..I tried for a few minutes to convert it to Excel, but no luck...I hate Excel, I use OpenOffice Calc whenever I can.

and OpenOffice is free
http://www.openoffice.org/

seeya,
blitzed