Is there a way to find out for sure whether lotto is fixed or not?
- Thread starter mirage
- Start date
People, please ignore the "P"... in the above thread. Sorry.
I pressed the enter key in error - LT, I had a whole long piece to post tried to edit but still got timed out after 15 minutes- now lost my entire post.
Anyway, the topic still stands...
Any thoughts anyone? I will post my long piece in bits and bites later.
(Better get off before I'm timed out again!)
I pressed the enter key in error - LT, I had a whole long piece to post tried to edit but still got timed out after 15 minutes- now lost my entire post.
Anyway, the topic still stands...
Any thoughts anyone? I will post my long piece in bits and bites later.
(Better get off before I'm timed out again!)
I just got a database of probably the majority of 649's in the world and to help the argument that lotto drawings are not fixed I have come up with the following frequencies of certain numbers getting picked.
pretty much all numbers in 6 balls in 16,000+ drawings should come up 2.04% of the time, the lowest I have had was #15 at 1.95% of the time and the highest wast #38 with 2.17% of the time.
or for those using the more simplified percentages that's 12.24% average with 15 having 11.72% and 38 having 13.03%
so too me this just goes to show overall in the grand scheme of things if the frequencies of all numbers are soo close than their can't be anyone rigging the results, or at least not enough to make an impact.
And strangely enough 15 over all is the least picked number just like in our national 649
pretty much all numbers in 6 balls in 16,000+ drawings should come up 2.04% of the time, the lowest I have had was #15 at 1.95% of the time and the highest wast #38 with 2.17% of the time.
or for those using the more simplified percentages that's 12.24% average with 15 having 11.72% and 38 having 13.03%
so too me this just goes to show overall in the grand scheme of things if the frequencies of all numbers are soo close than their can't be anyone rigging the results, or at least not enough to make an impact.
And strangely enough 15 over all is the least picked number just like in our national 649
ShytKicker
Member
I think it's fixed.
ShytKicker said:
Just curious but you base this opinion on what?
I think some lottos are reasonably clean some of the time but not always.
There is one lotto here where I live which has a rollover jackpot, jackpot starts out at 250,000 but it's practically a guarrantee that the jackpot won't be won until it's over a million$. Then bingo, as often as not, someone wins it pretty quick. Sometimes it goes to $1.3 or more mil though. I've been watching it for deviations from this trend but it's been proving me right for the last bunch of years. (OLGC I double dare ya to prove me wrong about this!)
Then there's this other lotto with odds close to 1 in 63,000,000 (mind you, you get a line of choice plus 2 quik piks, 3 lines in total for $2 canuck bucks but how many lines (unless you are in an office pool) do you think you can afford at $2 a shot? (& almost all the office pools that I've ever head of only do quik piks because they are easy and no one has to take responsibility for the choice of numbers.) This lotto with odds of 1 in 63 mil. is odds 3 times the population of all of Canada but this lotto is won pretty consistently. How can this be? They got every man, woman and child playing this lottery every draw???
For what it's worth, currently, imo, the Canada 6/49 is clean right now, but who can afford it?
It it may also depend on where you live, which lotto and who's running it.
stastical study
Sorry to interrupt, Bertil. I think Kosteczki has proven what he says. That, overall, lotto drawings are fair.
However, there is another way to look at the stats. Should he provide those numbers for you, I say that in the 1st position 1-20 shows up 96.603% of the time.
2nd position: 2-29 shows up 96.508% of the time. 3rd position: 6-37 shows up 96.445% of the time. 4th positon 13-44 shows up 96.445% of the time, 5th position 21-48 shows up 96.508% of the time and 6th position 30-49 shows up 96.603% of the time.
This is because of the frequency of each number by position. They are different only for the 1st half. After that, they repeat, but in reverse oder.
For instance #15 shows up 544,544 in the 3rd position, but 204,204 in the 4th position. The number 35 shows up just the opposite 204,204 in the 3rd position and 544,544 in the 4th position.
Sorry to interrupt, Bertil. I think Kosteczki has proven what he says. That, overall, lotto drawings are fair.
However, there is another way to look at the stats. Should he provide those numbers for you, I say that in the 1st position 1-20 shows up 96.603% of the time.
2nd position: 2-29 shows up 96.508% of the time. 3rd position: 6-37 shows up 96.445% of the time. 4th positon 13-44 shows up 96.445% of the time, 5th position 21-48 shows up 96.508% of the time and 6th position 30-49 shows up 96.603% of the time.
This is because of the frequency of each number by position. They are different only for the 1st half. After that, they repeat, but in reverse oder.
For instance #15 shows up 544,544 in the 3rd position, but 204,204 in the 4th position. The number 35 shows up just the opposite 204,204 in the 3rd position and 544,544 in the 4th position.
position all important
To continue: If 22 is in the 3rd positon, (Question 1) what numbers can be higher than 22? They are 23-49. (2) How many are there ? 27 Thus, (25x26x27) divided by (1x2x3) = 2,925. But, that's only half the solution. How many are lower than 22 in the 3rd position? 1 to 21 are, but they are in pairs. So, (20x21) divided by (1x2) = 210. (2,925x210) = 614,250. This is how many times 22 in the 3rd position can occur. On a % basis history proves these figures correct (if lotto drawings are fair).
This simple math, but confusing concepts, can be used for any nr, or any combos. Whatever you want.
This is also why I've stated that any game of sequential numbers is a gigantic circle, but once the possibilities reach half-way, they repeat but in reverse order.
I don't mean to be rude, nor insulting. Nor, do I think my method(s) are better than anyone else's. I'm just offering a different prospective for anyone to consider. W
To continue: If 22 is in the 3rd positon, (Question 1) what numbers can be higher than 22? They are 23-49. (2) How many are there ? 27 Thus, (25x26x27) divided by (1x2x3) = 2,925. But, that's only half the solution. How many are lower than 22 in the 3rd position? 1 to 21 are, but they are in pairs. So, (20x21) divided by (1x2) = 210. (2,925x210) = 614,250. This is how many times 22 in the 3rd position can occur. On a % basis history proves these figures correct (if lotto drawings are fair).
This simple math, but confusing concepts, can be used for any nr, or any combos. Whatever you want.
This is also why I've stated that any game of sequential numbers is a gigantic circle, but once the possibilities reach half-way, they repeat but in reverse order.
I don't mean to be rude, nor insulting. Nor, do I think my method(s) are better than anyone else's. I'm just offering a different prospective for anyone to consider. W
mirage said:
Lucky you.... rollovers? ..and even keno there has rollovers..?..I think the only two games with rollovers available to me are 649 and super7. In my opinion the first one has both too expensive tickets and too high odds and the second one has more than too high odds.
Can’t imagine myself the luckiest one among 63.000.000 million of people so without playing any lottery just like to jump in here from time to time...probably some sort of old habit from the days I used to play my usual 25-50 weekly tickets, when tickets were somehow more reasonably priced in my opinion...ShytKicker
Member
mirage, I don't have anyway to really base my data, it is just an educated guess after realizing how many scams there are nowadays especially the internet, and living in a very busy city where many businesses rely on lying people out of their money.
I could agree with your assumptions, but why run a scam when the lottery is a huge tax to begin with. If you basically had the liecense to print money like casino's and the lottery have (not being litteral) than why would you take a chance on crashing that. It would be a big hit if someone proved lottos are scamming. Not only would sales go wayyyyy down, but there would be other consiquences.
So why not just run a fair game.
So why not just run a fair game.
(Hmmm, sales of Super 7 often not bad - not sure it completely accounts for all of those jackpot winnings. Could be-maybe it's a clean lottery also. Not sure. )
Originally posted by tomtom
Lucky you.... rollovers?
But as for rollovers for Ontario's Lottario, which i used to play every week, because the odds were 6/45 - much better than a 6/49- and you get your additional quik pik line for that $1 also-
I dunno. The 2nd tier prize is not nearly as high as Can. 6/49 but it's not terrible.
I'm not sure how long but I think it's been years - a long long time since the jackpot was won before it went to over a $mil. I think it went once when it was only still at $250,000 a couple of years back- and I felt I still had some hope! But not since. So I really have to wonder. I still hope that I am wrong. But since I've observed that this lottery (Lottario) is usually not won until after rollover achieves $1 mil at least, as why bother? Why does it never seem to be won when it's $700, $800, or $900 thousand? Because they want it to be $1 mil, because then they can advertise: Jackpot = $1 million $ dollars!!! Anyway, that's imo.
Lottario was advertised as being a half $mil jackpot for Sat's (yesterday's) draw - it was actually $492,000- close, but guess what? the jackpot was not won again, of course!
What's the point of playing a lottery when you can be pretty sure the jackpot is not going to be won by anyone, anyway??
no matter how clever you are? And there's a lot of clever people around these days-
you'd think that when a jackpot is won it would be shared by more than one person more often... but that doesn't happen as much as it used to either.
(Another thought, sometimes I really wonder if it's not so much "rigging of some of the lotteries" but the whole is being controlled, like we really are living inside some kind of Matrix scenario ? (No, I'm not loony tunes... ))
However, 6/49 is sometimes still won even when it's not $4 mil as advertised. I think right now this particular lottery, the Can 6/49, is at least cleaner than the rest, if not completely clean ... It's controlled and audited more carefully. I think partly because it's under scrutiny since the change in prices. It's also mostly doing OK, afterall.
I notice the jackpot for Can 6/49 was more than was advertised, $14,718,356 in total per OLGC's web site, so sales for this draw were healthy. Goes to show that big jackpots actually do draw more sales, I guess. Could be time of year too - The Fall, before Xmas, people feeling energetic but back to work, and like having indoor-style fun.
..and even keno there has rollovers..?..I think the only two games with rollovers available to me are 649 and super7. In my opinion the first one has both too expensive tickets and too high odds and the second one has more than too high odds. Can’t imagine myself the luckiest one among 63.000.000 million of people so without playing any lottery just like to jump in here from time to time...probably some sort of old habit from the days I used to play my usual 25-50 weekly tickets, when tickets were somehow more reasonably priced in my opinion...
You live in BC don't you? Yeah, I know, your lotto corp really does suck, big time. I sympathize, truly. But at least you have nicer weather... and can enjoy the outdoors more all year round.
Gee, I wish I could offer something - if you used to spend $25-$50 week on the lotto, how about getting some buddies together, work buddies or something, and splitting the costs? Since you know math you be in charge of choosing which numbers? That way you can afford the higher prices and still have a piece of an even bigger jackpot pie? Just a thought. Or is it the principle of the matter?
Originally posted by tomtom
Lucky you.... rollovers?
But as for rollovers for Ontario's Lottario, which i used to play every week, because the odds were 6/45 - much better than a 6/49- and you get your additional quik pik line for that $1 also-
I dunno. The 2nd tier prize is not nearly as high as Can. 6/49 but it's not terrible.
I'm not sure how long but I think it's been years - a long long time since the jackpot was won before it went to over a $mil. I think it went once when it was only still at $250,000 a couple of years back- and I felt I still had some hope!
But not since. So I really have to wonder. I still hope that I am wrong. But since I've observed that this lottery (Lottario) is usually not won until after rollover achieves $1 mil at least, as why bother? Why does it never seem to be won when it's $700, $800, or $900 thousand? Because they want it to be $1 mil, because then they can advertise: Jackpot = $1 million $ dollars!!! Anyway, that's imo. Lottario was advertised as being a half $mil jackpot for Sat's (yesterday's) draw - it was actually $492,000- close, but guess what? the jackpot was not won again, of course!
What's the point of playing a lottery when you can be pretty sure the jackpot is not going to be won by anyone, anyway??
no matter how clever you are? And there's a lot of clever people around these days-
you'd think that when a jackpot is won it would be shared by more than one person more often... but that doesn't happen as much as it used to either.
(Another thought, sometimes I really wonder if it's not so much "rigging of some of the lotteries" but the whole is being controlled, like we really are living inside some kind of Matrix scenario ? (No, I'm not loony tunes... ))
However, 6/49 is sometimes still won even when it's not $4 mil as advertised. I think right now this particular lottery, the Can 6/49, is at least cleaner than the rest, if not completely clean ... It's controlled and audited more carefully. I think partly because it's under scrutiny since the change in prices. It's also mostly doing OK, afterall.
I notice the jackpot for Can 6/49 was more than was advertised, $14,718,356 in total per OLGC's web site, so sales for this draw were healthy. Goes to show that big jackpots actually do draw more sales, I guess. Could be time of year too - The Fall, before Xmas, people feeling energetic but back to work, and like having indoor-style fun.
..and even keno there has rollovers..?..I think the only two games with rollovers available to me are 649 and super7. In my opinion the first one has both too expensive tickets and too high odds and the second one has more than too high odds. Can’t imagine myself the luckiest one among 63.000.000 million of people so without playing any lottery just like to jump in here from time to time...probably some sort of old habit from the days I used to play my usual 25-50 weekly tickets, when tickets were somehow more reasonably priced in my opinion...
You live in BC don't you? Yeah, I know, your lotto corp really does suck,
big time. I sympathize, truly. But at least you have nicer weather... and can enjoy the outdoors more all year round. Gee, I wish I could offer something - if you used to spend $25-$50 week on the lotto, how about getting some buddies together, work buddies or something, and splitting the costs? Since you know math you be in charge of choosing which numbers? That way you can afford the higher prices and still have a piece of an even bigger jackpot pie? Just a thought. Or is it the principle of the matter?
You can always expect more sales with a ahigher Jackpot. I know so many people atht don't play the lotto unless it's above 10 million. And quite a few people that wait for it to be over 14 and spend their money then.
1 of my buddies puts away $10 every week. when the estimated jackpot hits 20million he goes and spends it all on tickets, wish he would listen to me and use some sort of strategy with this but he usually just gets quick picks.
1 of my buddies puts away $10 every week. when the estimated jackpot hits 20million he goes and spends it all on tickets, wish he would listen to me and use some sort of strategy with this but he usually just gets quick picks.
kosteczki said:
Where i work the office pool is so political and sure that nothing is better than quik piks. This pool plays the big jackpots only - whichever draw is bigger jackpot end of the week - 6/49 or Super 7. The office pool members plunk down $80 - $100 of loonies and toonies into a big pickle jar - $2 per player.
The ppl playing then write their names on a list beside the jar. One guy goes out in later afternoon to buy quik piks. Nothing will persuade them to do things differently. Usually I will throw in a toonie myself, just in case... Ya never know.
Yeah I ran a couple office pools for the lotto. Biggest thing with picking numbers is either it will take a long long time, or 2 there is alsway someone that would have a problem with at least 1 combination.
I guess the trick for this would be to find a group of people all interested or agreeing with a certain strategy. Then get everyone to put in the cash either a 1 time amount to be used for a few draws or put down the cash everytime you play.
Problem with that is if you base your strategy on a certain amount of people playing some draws you may be short, as people get bsy forget or just aren't willing to pay.
I guess the trick for this would be to find a group of people all interested or agreeing with a certain strategy. Then get everyone to put in the cash either a 1 time amount to be used for a few draws or put down the cash everytime you play.
Problem with that is if you base your strategy on a certain amount of people playing some draws you may be short, as people get bsy forget or just aren't willing to pay.
It is strange how some may react. I've noticed that the higher a jackpot gets, the more involved some get. The professional ones, doctors, lawyers, and some accountants will buy lotto tickets when mega-bucks or some other outragious game increases with prize money. Somehow, these folks think they have a better chance as the pot grows. But, they never do have a better chance. This is the same as one who uses house numbers, birthdates, ages, etc. These have not increased chances one whit, but have only substitued themselves as the computer, and made a quick-pik. Odd, how some don't take time to understand the simple odds.
To me, buying a qwik-pik is the same as stepping onto the back porch, and while holding a $10.00 bill, letting it go, and letting the wind carry it away.
Choozing one's own system does take awhile, but is a tremendous learning process. I am no smart-aleck, only confessing to learning about the game. In other areas, I am rather ignorant and/or stupid (I don't like the word, 'stupid').W
To me, buying a qwik-pik is the same as stepping onto the back porch, and while holding a $10.00 bill, letting it go, and letting the wind carry it away.
Choozing one's own system does take awhile, but is a tremendous learning process. I am no smart-aleck, only confessing to learning about the game. In other areas, I am rather ignorant and/or stupid (I don't like the word, 'stupid').W