Can someone help me with the probability of winning each of the 5 different prizes?

mikebg

Member
I'm a grade 12 student, in Toronto, Ontario, taking the course MGM4U. As part of an assignment, we have to determine the different number of tickets that could win each of the prizes, and then determine the expected loss given average amounts won (this involves first finding the probabilities). Up to this point I've been fine with counting strategies, and I got near-perfect on the test. Unfortunately, this assignment's a real bugger. I found a site that's helped me A LOT:

http://icarus.mcmaster.ca/fred/Lotto/


But it's still not enough, as it doesn't quite explain everything as clearly and fully as I think it should. Could someone please help me, and try to help make more sense of that site?

This is what I have so far:

n(different tickets that can win 1st prize) = 1 x 1 x 1 x 1 x 1 x 1 x 43 = 43 different tickets

n(different tickets that can win 2nd prize) = (1 x 1 x 1 x 1 x 1 x 42 x 1) x 6 = 2158 different tickets

n(different tickets that can win 3rd prize) = (1 x 1 x 1 x 1 x 1 x 42 x 42) x 6 = 11352

n(different tickets that can win 4th prize) = (1 x 1 x 1 x 1 x 45 x 44 x 43) x 6P2 = 2554200

n(different tickets that can win 5th prize) = (1 x 1 x 1 x 46 x 45 x 44 x 43) x 6P3 =
469972800

6P2 means permutation (6,2), or 6!/(6-2)!= 6!/4!. It's the same thing with 6P3.

Although, I know I have to fix the last few because only very recently did I remember that the sets aren't disjoint in this case (in other words, some of the combinations I have listed could actually win more than one possible prize, which isn't possible--and I still have to fix that, among other things).

Any help would be much appreciated. :)
 

mikebg

Member
Lotto 6/49, so:

1st Prize: Match all 6 numbers

2nd Prize: Match any 5 draw numbers and the bonus number

3rd Prize: Match any 5 draw numbers

4th Prize: Match any 4 draw numbers

5th Prize: Match any 3 draw numbers
 

mikebg

Member
johnph77 said:
Do a site search here - the results are available on my web site.

Sorry? What exactly do you mean by that? You mean I should search the forums? What's your website?
 

Brad

Member
re: your Canada - Multi-Province table, Lotto 6/49*

Hi John, I realize the table is from '04, but there have been a couple of changes since, to update at your convenience.

- minimum bet is now $2.00
- 2/6+Bonus gets a $5.00 prize from the Prize Fund


Also: the BC Daily3 has been discontinued ... as of about a year ago

*from BCLC.com


Cheers
 

johnph77

Member
Brad -

ty for the info - I'll update as soon as time permits. And that's why I date the entries.....

gl

j
 

mikebg

Member
Interesting...So, for the number of different winners of each ticket (which is the first part of the assignment), it's:

1st prize: C(6,6) x C(43,0)

2nd prize: This deals with the bonus number, which the site doesn't seem to mention at all.

3rd prize: C(6,5) x C(43,1)

4th prize: C(6,4) x C(43,2)

5th prize: C(6,3) x C(43,3)


This actually makes a lot of sense...Thanks, this definitely helps! But I'm still not out of the woods yet, because as I said, I still gotta deal with the bonus number, which the site doesn't even talk about. >_< But those ARE the right answers. WTF!?


Nonetheless, you're an absolute lifesaver, John. Thank you so much!:thumb:
 

johnph77

Member
mikebg -

Sure there is. That page consists of two tables, one below the other. The second table has the formulas, possibilities and odds for the bonus ball games. Please scroll down for that information.

---------------

Brad -

Correct me if I'm wrong, please - I went to the BC Lottery site and it was indicated there that the Canadian nationwide 6/49 game was the one with the alterations you mentioned rather than the BC49.

True?

Again, thanks.

---------------

gl

j
 

Brad

Member
johnph77 said:
Brad -

Correct me if I'm wrong, please - I went to the BC Lottery site and it was indicated there that the Canadian nationwide 6/49 game was the one with the alterations you mentioned rather than the BC49.

True?
Yes --True -- it is the Canadian National 6/49 lotto I posted about. The BC Lottery site covers it, as well as its own games (like the BC49 which you have already updated from 50c to $1 per ticket, etc.).

To reiterate, we often refer to the Canadian National 6/49 (you call it 'nationwide' which is ok too) as the CN49, here's a direct LINK to the stats for it on your site to remove any doubts.

Cheers


PS just-in-case: LINK <-- this Daily 3 no longer exist, which I also mentioned.
 

Brad

Member
Cont'd:

As if that wasn't enough, John, here's another new lottery for you to crunch, if/when you feel like it ;). I haven't had a chance to browse your site to see if you have a similar one yet.

From the same source, BCLC , British Columbia introduced a new 4/77 lottery called PayDay about a year ago. It pays $2K per 2 weeks for 20 years (about a Mil total), or a one shot payout of ~2/3 Million up front, for the top prize.


Cheers
 

johnph77

Member
Brad -

Oregon has a game just like that - same format and matrix, different bet and payouts. Biggest difference over the BC game is a payout for zero numbers hit on the ticket. I should still have the spreadsheet file I used for that game.


http://www.johnph77.com/math/stlot.html#orwfl

Washington used to have a similar game - Lucky for Life - with a 4/82 matrix but has discontinued it.

Thanks for the links - I'm working on some spreadsheets for a client but should have the lottery site updated before next weekend.

gl

j
 

mikebg

Member
Ohh...I didn't see that part before. Thanks!

One last question, though: Why does getting 6/6 for 6/49 not include an option of getting the bonus number? In fact, for any lotto r/n, getting r/r never includes an option for the bonus number. Why is this?
 

mikebg

Member
So my textbook mislead me. Here's exactly what it says:

Investigate and Apply
Lotto 6/49 draws involve selecting six numbers and one bonus number from the numbers 1 through 49.


It was so unclear...But now I get everything. Thank you so much! I'm great now! =D
 

johnph77

Member
mikebg -

Not really. The draw and the ticket are two different things. The draw consists of seven numbers - the six lottery numbers and the bonus ball. But there are only six numbers printed on the ticket, so only six of the seven drawn numbers can appear - either the six lottery numbers or five of the lottery numbers and the bonus ball. That's why a 6+1 outcome is impossible.

gl

j
 

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