BP skipper

[HalfBee]

The lucky Stars balls have to be two balls from the same set of nine eg. 1&3 or 2&8.

Yes, but do they have to be in the correct order also?

 

[ganbatte]

All the results from all the websites are in increasing order.

The lottery terms say "'Match 5 and 2 Lucky Stars' category:
means that the five numbers selected by a Player from the numbers one to fifty inclusive match, in any order, all the Main Numbers drawn in a Draw and the two numbers selected by a Player from or in the numbers one to nine inclusive only match, in any order, the Lucky Star Numbers drawn in that Draw."

Which to me means that the numbers can be in any order.

I just had a look at the odds (which I never do) and matching the 5 main balls is 1: 3,632,160 and matching the 5 main balls and 2 Lucky Stars is 1: 76,275,360. Those 2 little balls sure increase those odds.

 

[HalfBee]

ganbatte,
Thanks, just getting it clear what actually happens in that game for testing purposes. Yeah, lucky stars would have to be figured/tracked separately. Not sure what strategy would be good for stars.

 

[HalfBee]

ganbatte,

Check prediction posting on Euromillions. Ignore the ticket stuff that's just a test prediction. The number pool (20 Numbers) is as near to the same way I do my Fantasy 5 picks, with the inclusion of BP's patterns as redundancy check toward the filters/tweaks I normally use. Like I said on that post, it's WAY out of my league but will try it and see what happens. The lucky stars I chose the 4 I felt most likely to show and just semi-wheeled them in a repeat pattern down the list. Not an ideal solution to the stars, but who knows...

 

[black prince]

ganbatte

Originally Posted by ganbatte
Hi BP & HalfBee

I don't know if you guys have heard of the EuroMillions lottery but I have been trying to work out good patterns for the £42,000,000 or $78,000,000 tax free draw this Friday evening.

If you guys feel like it, could you possibly have a go at predicting using BP's patterns? I have also been following HalfBee's results for the California Fantasy 5 and hitting 3 out of 5 balls for 8/10, 8/11 and 8/13 is great.

The data for the lottery can be downloaded at: http://www.national-lottery.co.uk/player/files/EuroMillions.csv. To win you need 5 balls from 1 to 50 and 2 "lucky star" balls from 1 to 9.

I tried the patterns for the draw last week but wasn't too successful. Maybe you guys will do much better.

I used BPMedian in winnalotto and added column #30 as a filter:

Filter Column:

#10 > 6
and
#10 < 11

This eliminated 14 numbers for the 5/50 part of EuroMillions. I did nothing with Lucky Star.
Try this as a start. Do some backtesting and check your results.

-BP

 

[HalfBee]

Yeah, my pattern set eliminated 19 leaving 31 numbers. What I found works (or should I say worked in the previous draw groups where I could see the next numbers) was to select the patterns of the current draw numbers and then select all those of the same count value with similar skip sum thresholds.

Example: 65665 (4) - I'd keep all the other patterns with (4) counts that also (part of new program version) had skip values threshold of similar value. Actual listing was 65665 (4) <1>3 so others with <1>3 or <0>4 that hit 4 times would also be marked to save. Patterns that hit 4 to 9 times seem most popular. Since the extreme upper end also should prove useful I select it only if there is 1 of a particular value say 14 and 12 hits (same with lower end).

Eliminating the patterns I didn't want got rid of 12 to 25 balls. I know it can be a lot more accurate on which patterns to keep, but still experimenting. I use the BpMedD filter and that only pulled out 10 numbers (over 50% simple) and another 8 (under 50% simple) which is my usual split point. I try to take half of each depending if they are backed up by other filters. I also add in some that are not part of that group if they show up in mulitple filters.

 

[Flexalong]

Hi Halfbee,

Thanks for sharing your program.

I am currently having a problem. I am able to import my results but when I click "Get skip" it shows the following error which I did a printscreen:

Hope you can help.

Thanks

 

[HalfBee]

Hi Halfbee,

Thanks for sharing your program.

I am currently having a problem. I am able to import my results but when I click "Get skip" it shows the following error which I did a printscreen:

Thanks

Thanks for the obscure error messages Microsoft

Yes, it doesn't have a lot of error handling. How much history are you loading? Should be about 200-300 draws if you have them. Does the history show up in the listing? Should have a history list and the next draws below it on the left side. Do they look right, should be DrawID and then the draw number information.

 

[Flexalong]

Thanks for the obscure error messages Microsoft

Yes, it doesn't have a lot of error handling. How much history are you loading? Should be about 200-300 draws if you have them. Does the history show up in the listing? Should have a history list and the next draws below it on the left side. Do they look right, should be DrawID and then the draw number information.

I used 110 draws but I tried duplicating 100 more draws in my results.csv but still showed the same error.

The history showed up correctly with the recent future draws below and the rest at the top and with the draw id and draw numbers.

???

 

[Flexalong]

Hi Halfbee, the following was displayed when I click details:

See the end of this message for details on invoking
just-in-time (JIT) debugging instead of this dialog box.

************** Exception Text **************
System.ArgumentOutOfRangeException: InvalidArgument=Value of '-1' is not valid for 'index'.
Parameter name: index
at System.Windows.Forms.ListBox.ObjectCollection.get_Item(Int32 index)
at BP_skipper.BPskipMain.SkipCounter()
at BP_skipper.BPskipMain.SkipCountButton_Click(Object sender, EventArgs e)
at System.Windows.Forms.Control.OnClick(EventArgs e)
at System.Windows.Forms.Button.OnClick(EventArgs e)
at System.Windows.Forms.Button.OnMouseUp(MouseEventArgs mevent)
at System.Windows.Forms.Control.WmMouseUp(Message& m, MouseButtons button, Int32 clicks)
at System.Windows.Forms.Control.WndProc(Message& m)
at System.Windows.Forms.ButtonBase.WndProc(Message& m)
at System.Windows.Forms.Button.WndProc(Message& m)
at System.Windows.Forms.Control.ControlNativeWindow.OnMessage(Message& m)
at System.Windows.Forms.Control.ControlNativeWindow.WndProc(Message& m)
at System.Windows.Forms.NativeWindow.Callback(IntPtr hWnd, Int32 msg, IntPtr wparam, IntPtr lparam)


************** Loaded Assemblies **************
mscorlib
Assembly Version: 2.0.0.0
Win32 Version: 2.0.50727.1434 (REDBITS.050727-1400)
CodeBase: file:///C:/Windows/Microsoft.NET/Framework/v2.0.50727/mscorlib.dll
----------------------------------------
BP_skipper
Assembly Version: 1.0.0.0
Win32 Version: 1.0.0.0
CodeBase: file:///G:/bpskip/BP_skipper.exe
----------------------------------------
Microsoft.VisualBasic
Assembly Version: 8.0.0.0
Win32 Version: 8.0.50727.1434 (REDBITS.050727-1400)
CodeBase: file:///C:/Windows/assembly/GAC_MSIL/Microsoft.VisualBasic/8.0.0.0__b03f5f7f11d50a3a/Microsoft.VisualBasic.dll
----------------------------------------
System
Assembly Version: 2.0.0.0
Win32 Version: 2.0.50727.1434 (REDBITS.050727-1400)
CodeBase: file:///C:/Windows/assembly/GAC_MSIL/System/2.0.0.0__b77a5c561934e089/System.dll
----------------------------------------
System.Windows.Forms
Assembly Version: 2.0.0.0
Win32 Version: 2.0.50727.1434 (REDBITS.050727-1400)
CodeBase: file:///C:/Windows/assembly/GAC_MSIL/System.Windows.Forms/2.0.0.0__b77a5c561934e089/System.Windows.Forms.dll
----------------------------------------
System.Drawing
Assembly Version: 2.0.0.0
Win32 Version: 2.0.50727.1434 (REDBITS.050727-1400)
CodeBase: file:///C:/Windows/assembly/GAC_MSIL/System.Drawing/2.0.0.0__b03f5f7f11d50a3a/System.Drawing.dll
----------------------------------------
System.Runtime.Remoting
Assembly Version: 2.0.0.0
Win32 Version: 2.0.50727.1434 (REDBITS.050727-1400)
CodeBase: file:///C:/Windows/assembly/GAC_MSIL/System.Runtime.Remoting/2.0.0.0__b77a5c561934e089/System.Runtime.Remoting.dll
----------------------------------------
System.Core
Assembly Version: 3.5.0.0
Win32 Version: 3.5.21022.8 built by: RTM
CodeBase: file:///G:/bpskip/System.Core.DLL
----------------------------------------

************** JIT Debugging **************
To enable just-in-time (JIT) debugging, the .config file for this
application or computer (machine.config) must have the
jitDebugging value set in the system.windows.forms section.
The application must also be compiled with debugging
enabled.

For example:

<configuration>
<system.windows.forms jitDebugging="true" />
</configuration>

When JIT debugging is enabled, any unhandled exception
will be sent to the JIT debugger registered on the computer
rather than be handled by this dialog box.

 

[HalfBee]

You didn't say what type of lottery it is, 6/49 5/50 or whatever. To me it sounds like you don't have enough history to get 5 skips. The amount needed varies but you might try lowering the 'draws used' setting. The program removes that number of draws from history before starting to gather the 5 skips from each number. So if it's set to 30 and you have 110 history then you only have 80 draws and each number needs to have 5 skips.

The larger lotteries can have 40-50+ skip values so even 200 draws might not give you 5 skips.

 

[HalfBee]

BP,

I'm trying to figure the threshold value for skip sums.
Adding the median skip values seems too low, so almost everything is over.
Options:

• Add 5 for Median skip values +1
• Add value for Draws used/Number of balls drawn (typically 6 or 7)
• Add value for Maximum Ball Number/Balls drawn (typically 8-10)
• Some other suggestion I haven't thought of yet

I get different results depending on lottery. For 5/39 the first option seems fine, but for say euroMillions 5/50 nothing seems to fit so far. Still checking.
Just wanted to see if you had any input on adjusting this a bit.

 

[HalfBee]

New version (1b) now available...

http://www.amafrog.com/halfbee/bpskip1b.zip

This version has the skip sum section added.

View the readme file for information, right now it's using the sum of the median skip values plus (how many draws you used for gathering skips divided by the number of balls drawn in the lottery game).

It will automatically figure this value or you can elect not to have it calculated and enter the value you want to use.

 

[Flexalong]

You didn't say what type of lottery it is, 6/49 5/50 or whatever. To me it sounds like you don't have enough history to get 5 skips. The amount needed varies but you might try lowering the 'draws used' setting. The program removes that number of draws from history before starting to gather the 5 skips from each number. So if it's set to 30 and you have 110 history then you only have 80 draws and each number needs to have 5 skips.

The larger lotteries can have 40-50+ skip values so even 200 draws might not give you 5 skips.

Got it, and thanks for the new version.

 

[black prince]

HalfBee

Originally Posted by HalfBee
BP,

I'm trying to figure the threshold value for skip sums.
Adding the median skip values seems too low, so almost everything is over.
Options:

* Add 5 for Median skip values +1
* Add value for Draws used/Number of balls drawn (typically 6 or 7)
* Add value for Maximum Ball Number/Balls drawn (typically 8-10)
* Some other suggestion I haven't thought of yet


I get different results depending on lottery. For 5/39 the first option seems
fine, but for say euroMillions 5/50 nothing seems to fit so far. Still checking.
Just wanted to see if you had any input on adjusting this a bit.

I've written a program that checks the high/low threshold of the draws
prior to winning and this sets my range. I determine how many times
numbers hit say between (1 to 5) or (1 to 6) or (1 to 7), etc. for skip1, than
that's my low and above this is my high. For example if my test shows
most numbers win between 1 to 6, then 6 and less is my low and above
6 is my high.

-BP

 

[HalfBee]

I've written a program that checks the high/low threshold of the draws
prior to winning and this sets my range. I determine how many times
numbers hit say between (1 to 5) or (1 to 6) or (1 to 7), etc. for skip1, than
that's my low and above this is my high. For example if my test shows
most numbers win between 1 to 6, then 6 and less is my low and above
6 is my high.
-BP

Nope Nope... been there, done that...
This part was a sum of skips 1 to 5 for the winning numbers that patterns were collected on. Just looking for a relationship of matching the patterns to whether the sum of their skips was above or below a threshold value.

Say a number had skips 2-8-2-12-4 and our pattern was 56565 (using 6 as a median skip value) well they add up to 28. If you add the median skip values (6,6,6,6,6) that's 30 so this pattern when it hit was Under threshold. Most patterns when they hit are Over threshold. This needs a booster value to even things out since many winning numbers have values WAY above median in their skip cycles and throws things off when trying to match the same patterns to other numbers for the next draw.

Just a tweak with a different spin for the same pattern selections as before. It does show some real similarities between some of the patterns with the same number of counts over a given span. I'll give an example next post...

 

[HalfBee]

Here's an example of 5/55 drawing.
After gathering all the skip values for the winning number over a 35 draw cycle we end up with:
Median skip values for skips 1 to 5: 7,8,8,7,7
Threshold 44 (7+8+8+7+7=37 plus 35draws/5balls=7) <this is what I was asking about...

Sample Skip Data
#_____Skips_____Pattern____Sum/OverUnder
13 | 9,12,0,6,11 66556 38U <#1
19 | 7,25,12,4,4 56655 52O
32 | 13,6,0,14,30 65566 63O
38 | 7,6,13,9,12 55666 47O
51 | 36,5,8,3,12 65656 64O <#2

Now on our pattern count list we see 2 of these patterns at 8 and 9 occurances each
66565 (8) 2/6
66656 (8) 0/8
55665 (8) 3/5
66556 (8) 2/6 <#1
56665 (9) 3/6
65656 (9) 3/6 <#2

Now all the 9s were 3 under and 6 over threshold so it's fairly consistant.
The 8s have 2 at 2/6 one at 3/5 more toward middle ground and one at 0/8 meaning it's always shown up over threshold. With so many over median we would expect this to be so...

It's the extra that needs to be added to the sum of the skip values to find a consistant indicator.

If we just use the sum of the median values (in this case 37) then you can see that ALL the winning numbers would have been marked as over threshold (and about 95% of everything else too). With larger lottos the skip values can be very high and the medians have a hard time showing us which direction they are moving.

This was just mentioned as a possible indicator so I threw it in to see if anything came out of it.

 

[bloubul]

Hi HalfBee

Please ad a reset button, it will make life just that easier.
Thanks

BlouBul

 

[HalfBee]

What section/process did you want to reset?
Is it you want to refigure skips and patterns with different filter values or number of draws? I could do that just by not hiding the Get Skips button.

 

[bloubul]

What section/process did you want to reset?
Is it you want to refigure skips and patterns with different filter values or number of draws? I could do that just by not hiding the Get Skips button.

Hi HalfBee

Yes please, because if you want to change the number of draws you must close it and re-open again , by having a reset button which "ZERO" all previous selections, you can continue without going in and out.

Thanks

BlouBul