Bayesian Theory notes
- Thread starter Nick Koutras
- Start date
Dennis Bassboss
Member
Great toys there Nick! Thanks! 
Nick Koutras
Member
Dennis Bassboss said:Great toys there Nick! Thanks!
There are not toys Dennis,
Understanding the theory can be the difference of you Hitting the Big One or NOT...
Dennis Bassboss
Member
Call them as you like...I'll play with it...Nick Koutras said:
johnph77
Member
Mr. DeForest makes two statements that jumped out at me:
"Another common abuse of statistics"
and:
"In common language, we often use the words "probability" and "odds" interchangeably, but the decimal form of the probability of an event is a different number than the decimal form of the odds of the same event."
Statistics, no matter what their purpose or their source, can and will be abused. In analyzing a lottery, as an example, if you're using past history, that history of drawn numbers is statistics. To unequivocally state that certain numbers will appear more often than others in the future only because of that history can be construed as abuse of statistics.
Odds and probability are different. The easiest way to explain this is that odds are the chance of a specific event occurring in a sequence of events and probability is the chance of any possible event occurring in that same sequence.
Thanks, Nick, for the link and some interesting reading.
"Another common abuse of statistics"
and:
"In common language, we often use the words "probability" and "odds" interchangeably, but the decimal form of the probability of an event is a different number than the decimal form of the odds of the same event."
Statistics, no matter what their purpose or their source, can and will be abused. In analyzing a lottery, as an example, if you're using past history, that history of drawn numbers is statistics. To unequivocally state that certain numbers will appear more often than others in the future only because of that history can be construed as abuse of statistics.
Odds and probability are different. The easiest way to explain this is that odds are the chance of a specific event occurring in a sequence of events and probability is the chance of any possible event occurring in that same sequence.
Thanks, Nick, for the link and some interesting reading.