2014 6/49 Number-Pickers Challenge - Draw #2

[Icewynd]

Welcome to the second draw of the 6/49 Number-Pickers Callenge. The draw will be held on Saturday, January 4th.

For comparison purposes the following 20 numbers have been randomly generated by Random.org:

3 4 7 8 12 15 18 19 21 22 23 24 30 33 34 35 41 43 46 47

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Rules:
Numbers will be selected for the UK National Lottery.
Each participant will submit 20 numbers for each draw.
New numbers must be submitted for each draw.
The post containing the numbers must be timestamped by 13:30 on the date of the draw.

Good luck to all!

 

[Icewynd]

Here are my numbers for the second draw:

5 6 9 11 12 17 18 23 24 25 26 28 29 30 33 39 40 41 44 48

Good luck to all!

 

[Frank]

I'll have a go with these:-

1 3 4 6 7 11 15 20 23 30 33 35 36 39 40 41 44 46 47 49

By the way, The next draw is a good one to actually play as its a quad rollover and the Jackpot will be paid to the 5 plus bb winners in the event of no jackpot winners. So possibly reduced odds for a big win, around £14 million.

 

[jol]

Frank
I may well buy a line or 2.
My numbers.
4 5 9 13 14 16 17 24 26 27 28 30 31 33 37 39 40 41 42 44

 

[madam]

Working with Karnac's Theory, here is my version of it in 20 #s =2 5 7 8 10 11 12 15 21 23 24 25 26 28 29 31 32 40 41 48

 

[niteowl]

06 09 10 12 13 14 16 17 18 21 24 26 29 30 35 38 40 44 46 48

 

[Icewynd]

Draw #2 1882 Saturday, January 4, 2014 4-11-18-28-41-44 (8)

Congratulations to Icewynd who matched 5 numbers.

Icewynd 5
Jol 4
Frank 4
Random 3
Madam 3
Niteowl 2

Thanks to all who participated. The next draw will take place Wednesday, January 8th, 2014.

Good luck!

 

[Icewynd]

Draw #2 1882 Saturday, January 4, 2014 4-11-18-28-41-44 (8)

Icewynd 5
Jol 4
Frank 4
Random 3
Madam 3
Niteowl 2

Revised results to include Bonus number (8)

Icewynd 5
Jol 4
Frank 4
Madam 4
Random 4
Niteowl 2

 

[Frank]

Well done Icewynd.
I don't know if these figures have been worked out elsewhere, but according to my calculations, these are the odds of getting each kind of match when drawing 7 balls from 49 (i.e including bonus) when you have a shortlist of 20 balls selected:-

match 7..... 1107.11 to 1
match 6..... 75.42 to 1
match 5..... 12.65 to 1
match 4..... 3.85 to 1
match 3..... 2.17 to 1
match 2..... 2.81 to 1
match 1..... 8.04 to 1
match 0..... 54.04 to 1

So the likeliest outcome in a single game is a match 3 by chance alone. The theoretical average score over 100 games is 2.857 balls matched.

 

[madam]

Icewynd:My figures for the 1/8/13: 20 41 46 27 35 47 31 7 29 44 30 17 26 6 14 34 21 24 40 16. These are from Milto's suggestion of using the hot #s from the last 10 plays of ON49

 

[Icewynd]

Well done Icewynd.
I don't know if these figures have been worked out elsewhere, but according to my calculations, these are the odds of getting each kind of match when drawing 7 balls from 49 (i.e including bonus) when you have a shortlist of 20 balls selected:-

match 7..... 1107.11 to 1
match 6..... 75.42 to 1
match 5..... 12.65 to 1
match 4..... 3.85 to 1
match 3..... 2.17 to 1
match 2..... 2.81 to 1
match 1..... 8.04 to 1
match 0..... 54.04 to 1

So the likeliest outcome in a single game is a match 3 by chance alone. The theoretical average score over 100 games is 2.857 balls matched.

Thanks, Frank. Sometimes the draw just lines up with a number selection method.

I have been using a table that I found on the web:
http://www.lottotrix.com/lottery-predictions-lotto-649.html
It gives different results, but I don't know how it was calculated.

Match 0 3.40%
Match 1 16.98%
Match 2 32.27%
Match 3 29.79%
Match 4 14.07%
Match 5 3.22%
Match 6 0.28%

The difference could perhaps result from using 6 numbers to match vs. 7 numbers as in your table?

This is why I am posting the random set for each draw -- hopefully Random will average out at close to 2.87 at the end of the year.

Good luck!

 

[Frank]

I can confirm that my figures, if set for counting 6 drawn balls only would match your figures exactly. So that is why my figures differ from that table. The equivalent average score for 6 drawn balls over 100 draws is 2.449.

 

[Frank]

I forgot to expand on the figures:-

The easy way to work out what the average score would be if you allow all 7 drawn balls to count, is to work out the probability of matching the first of your 20 selected balls. With 49 possibilities, then if you compare your first ball with the seven drawn the probability of a match is 7/49 = 0.142857143. However you have 20 chances of doing this with 20 balls so 20 x 0.142857143. = 2.857142857.

The figures in the table you refer to can be calculated ( but using 7 drawn balls ) using Excels Hypgeomdist function. For example for a 7/49 lottery which is effectively what this is if we count the bonus ball as an equal then the probability of matching seven balls where your number of selections is 20 is given by =HYPGEOMDIST(7,20,7,49) =0.0009 . To get the others, you just substitute the first 7 in the formula for each of 6,5,4,3,2,1,0 to get the probabilities for each case of matching 6,5,4,3,2 and 0.

Probability,pool, number matched"
0.0009 20 Balls match 7
0.0131 20 Balls match 6
0.0733 20 Balls match 5
0.2061 20 Balls match 4
0.3152 20 Balls match 3
0.2627 20 Balls match 2
0.1106 20 Balls match 1
0.0182 20 Balls match 0


Note:-
to work out what match 7's average contribution to the final ball average would be, you multiply 0.0009 by 7 to get 0.00632
to work out what match 6's average contribution to the final ball average would be, you multiply 0.0131 by 6 to get 0.07851
to work out what match 5's average contribution to the final ball average would be, you multiply 0.0733 by 5 to get 0.36639
to work out what match 4's average contribution to the final ball average would be, you multiply 0.2061 by 4 to get 0.82438
to work out what match 3's average contribution to the final ball average would be, you multiply 0.3152 by 3 to get 0.94561
to work out what match 2's average contribution to the final ball average would be, you multiply 0.2627 by 2 to get 0.52534
to work out what match 1's average contribution to the final ball average would be, you multiply 0.1106 by 1 to get 0.11059

If you add up the figures in the last column to get the theoretical average score, it comes to ...............................2.857143