The Standings Draw for Draw

peter

Member
Aug 20 Draw.
The Standings…After 1 draw…
Maggie=4+bonus *Congrats* current leader
mon=3+bonus
Florie=3+bonus
Bovet=3+bonus
Winkledinkle=3
Geenie=2+bonus
Rajeev28=2+bonus
Huge set Dennis=2
Beaker=2
Luckystrike=2
Sheba=1
Nick k=1
Fat Freddy=1
Godload=1
NmbrsDude=1
Daleks=0
Small set Baddies Dennis=0

Note:
The players that posted actual played lines are not listed...
 

peter

Member
Dennis, I thought I would post a new thread for you, so you can use this same thread each draw. Are you going to specify how many correct, from how many played.
After all 4 from 8 is better than 4 from 12.:D
 
August 23 Standings After 2 draws…

Florie=7+bonus*Congrats* current leader :king:
mon=5+2 bonus
Maggie=5+2 bonus
Geenie=5+2 bonus
Huge set Dennis=5
Winkledinkle=5
Bovet=4+bonus
Snides=4+bonus
Beaker=4
Luckystrike=4
Thenrifi=4
Bones=3
Sheba=3
NmbrsDude=3
Rajeev28=2+bonus
Rob50=2
LT=2
Peter=1
Nick k=1
Fat Freddy=1
Godload=1
Small set Baddies Dennis=1
Daleks=0
Unclescrooge=0
 
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Snides

Member
so this is the last 2 draws combined to get those totals? I'm guessing that based on your stats for florie.. but what's strange is that I actually just got 4+B on the 23rd draw yet it only shows 3+B in the stats you gave me, and I couldn't post for the draw on the 20th because this website was messed up and not working the night I was able to post..

So I suppose having 4+B for 1 out of 2 draws combined is pretty good :)

If we're going to have ratings on each players performance then there should be something like what peter is saying.. or just a chart draw by draw and not combining draws where some people didn't/can't post..
 

Beaker

Member
I don't want to clutter this thread but there is a formula to rank how well you are doing that takes the total number played into consideration. That's the one we need. I'm looking for that formula and when I find it I will post. :agree:
 
I can't argue about anything you said there Snides...Sorry for missing up on a number from the last draw...
I agree entirely with you....but if you want to compile them you are welcome...I only want to account for the total numbers each of us is hitting in an entire year..regardless of the numbers played...or the numbers of draws played...

It wouldn't tell the full story anyways we would not see how many lines are wheeled...or how many matches we get on our lines played...
If you miss a draw or draws your score will go down...(But I do think you will stick close to the top by the end of this)Same thing for me and some others...
This data is far from being perfect ....The people posting 20 or more should be on top at the end of the year....if not??
 

Snides

Member
Snides said:
1 2 3 4 6 7 8 13 19 23 24 28 31 32 38 44 45 47 48 49
i got 2 6 19 47, and the bonus of 1

I'll see what Beaker comes up with on this formula.. it may be simple to create a little database with everyone's numbers and make the formula do the work, without the formula i may be able to come up with something to do a chart idea.. I could even go back through the history in this forum and get a few months of stats to start this up, time permitting of course :) I do have other things to do ;)
 
Snides said:
i got 2 6 19 47, and the bonus of 1

I'll see what Beaker comes up with on this formula.. it may be simple to create a little database with everyone's numbers and make the formula do the work, without the formula i may be able to come up with something to do a chart idea.. I could even go back through the history in this forum and get a few months of stats to start this up, time permitting of course :) I do have other things to do ;)
I'm also going to be very busy starting next week....I have just updated your score ...to 4+bonus...:agree:
 

Florie

Member
Beaker said:
I don't want to clutter this thread but there is a formula to rank how well you are doing that takes the total number played into consideration. That's the one we need. I'm looking for that formula and when I find it I will post. :agree:
Beaker,

In all fairness to others who pick less numbers to wheel, why don't we do it on percentage level ? Assuming same number of hits/picks per draw

Say 1 draw 2/14=14% 2/18=11%
2 draws 4/28=14% etc.

I think bonus number should be included in this as it is also included in the number picks to wheel. Just my view. Maybe you could start a poll on this one. Others may have more ideasto share.

My 2 cents worth.
:)
 

peter

Member
Florie said:
Beaker,

In all fairness to others who pick less numbers to wheel, why don't we do it on percentage level ? Assuming same number of hits/picks per draw

Say 1 draw 2/14=14% 2/18=11%
2 draws 4/28=14% etc.

I think bonus number should be included in this as it is also included in the number picks to wheel. Just my view. Maybe you could start a poll on this one. Others may have more ideasto share.

My 2 cents worth.
:)
I agree with this Florie:agree2:
 

peter

Member
Dennis Bassboss said:
I only want to account for the total numbers each of us is hitting in an entire year..regardless of the numbers played
I disagree Dennis, and the reason is this, if we each post 49 numbers each draw, all of us would get 6 and the bonus.
I like the percentage ranking.
Say you play only 8 numbers, and you get 4 correct, thats 50%, and say you did this 12 times out of 24 posts, you could say, that person hits for 50 %, 50% or half the time they play.
If we do a thread and call it a "Players Score Card" from say now until Dec.31, not only can we see on a draw to draw basis where every one stands, but we can do a final tabulation on JAN 1, 2004, and crown that individual Lotto King or Queen for 2003.
But we must come up with setting the criteria or ground rules, we can all agree on.
These are my 2 cents.:agree2:
 
peter said:
I disagree Dennis, and the reason is this, if we each post 49 numbers each draw, all of us would get 6 and the bonus.
I like the percentage ranking.
Say you play only 8 numbers, and you get 4 correct, thats 50%, and say you did this 12 times out of 24 posts, you could say, that person hits for 50 %, 50% or half the time they play.
If we do a thread and call it a "Players Score Card" from say now until Dec.31, not only can we see on a draw to draw basis where every one stands, but we can do a final tabulation on JAN 1, 2004, and crown that individual Lotto King or Queen for 2003.
But we must come up with setting the criteria or ground rules, we can all agree on.
These are my 2 cents.:agree2:
I disagree Peter ...As I'm sure that I might find a way to miss once in a while the 6 +bonus even by using all the 49 numbers.. :lol:
Seriously...I know that Peter...But that % of hits showed by Florie is not accurate either...As Beaker said we would need a formula to be more precise but we will never be totally accurate...
the odds of getting more do increase when you play more numbers...Therefore a % calculation like it is done usually doesn't account for that...but at the same time the odds of getting 3 or more than 3 on one line decreases also....unless of course you play them all in a full wheel...
To get a good idea of how we are doing...We would need something like...

(Total hits)-(minus) --->(hits expected,Chart of actual odds, Different for each total numbers played)
-----------------------------------------
(divided by)(total numbers played)

You see at the present time after 2 draws I would sit under the expected value with my small set..while Snides would be ahead of it...Mon :king: in that same reasonning would lead everybody and Beaker would be much closer to the top....
What's missing in Florie's % is the actual chart/grid of expected hits from 1 to 49 to have the actual odds in order to evaluate each players standing...
But even with this math you would not know exactly how much wins there are by everybody...To do that we would need everybody's actual played lines...
 

Beaker

Member
Scoring system

OK, this is what I found at another site ;) . This is from Joe Roberts, CDEX, of Lottery Director fame. Joe is a member here and if he checks in he may be able to give us some more ideas.
This is close to what Flore said but you have to incorporate how many numbers are in the lotto.

Example for a 6/49:

((Qty of winning numbers(hit) / Qty of numbers picked) / (6/49)) * 100.

So, compare (1) 2 from 10 picked compared to (2) 3 from 20

(2/10)/(6/49)*100 = 163.3
(3/20)/(6/49)*100 = 122.5

Some jackpot winning comparisions

(6/10)/(6/49)*100 = 490
(6/20)/(6/49)*100 = 245

and the ultimate
(6/6)/(6/49)*100 = 816.66

So, obviously, if you pick 6/10 the score is much better than 6 from 20 and the score reflects this. The other thing here is the 2/10 wins nothing, but the 3 from 20 may have a 3-hitter.
Also, if we include the bonus our denominator goes to 7/49

Thanks Joe :agree2:
 
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Looking at my way of compiling....So as you can see...someone playing 49 numbers in a full wheel would get 0% as a predictor even by getting all 6 + the bonus.. :lol:
 
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Beaker

Member
Dennis Bassboss said:
So as you can see...someone playing 49 numbers in a full wheel would get 0% as a predictor even by getting all 6 + the bonus.. :lol:
Well,

(6/49)/(6/49)*100 = 100

(3/49)/(6/49)*100 = 50

But,

(3/12)/(6/49)*100 = 204.16
(3/10)/(6/49)*100 = 245

A BIGGER BUT.

(3/3)/(6/49)*100 = 816.66 which is the same as (6/6)/(6/49)*100 = 816.66

Only difference is one is $10 and the other is $2,000,000 :lol:
 

Pradeep

Member
Baker Baking Mathematics.

I like your Formula.One question . You have not included Bonus number.why?
You are guru, I am your Student .
 

Beaker

Member
Re: Baker Baking Mathematics.

Pradeep said:
I like your Formula.One question . You have not included Bonus number.why?
You are guru, I am your Student .
You can :notme: just use 7/49 :agree2: but it gets a little complicated because that bonus is only for one prize but if you assume a 7 number lotto you're OK. ;)

You have to be careful with this formula - you can't use it for ranking for prizes.

What this formula says is how well I am picking above expectation based on the number of numbers I am playing.

The greater you are above 100 the better you are doing but not necessarily in the $$$ category.
 
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Funny According to this way of evaluating how you are doing...That Beaker just posted...
everytime my 2 Hints hits...I get (2/2)/(7/49)*100=714.3
But there is more....
when I hit recently in BC/49 for (4/7)/(7/49)*100...
I would have get 407 points....
Nick's recent hit of 5 in 6/49...(5/11)/(7/49)*100=321.4 points
Maggie's recent hit of 4+bonus ( 5/14)/(7/49)*100=255 points
Winkeldinkle recent hit in Super 7(6/20)/(7/47)*100=200 points
only looking at regular numbers from this one...
Ben best hit of (6/18)/(7/49)*100=235.7 points
:lol:
I don't want anyone to think that I want to brag about something here....As you can see there are no crown anywhere...I did not win a dime from it anyway...

Giving this report I will only play my small set from now on....These numbers speaks for themselves...
Beaker you mentionned that 2 out of 10 don't win you a thing ...I disagree....It doesn't win a thing on the board...but we could hit in other sets not posted...Anyway it is the same for the 3/20 Who knows if they hit for 3 or not?? We do not see any of their lines...
 
Beaker said:
Well,

(6/49)/(6/49)*100 = 100

(3/49)/(6/49)*100 = 50

But,

(3/12)/(6/49)*100 = 204.16
(3/10)/(6/49)*100 = 245

A BIGGER BUT.

(3/3)/(6/49)*100 = 816.66 which is the same as (6/6)/(6/49)*100 = 816.66

Only difference is one is $10 and the other is $2,000,000 :lol:
Beaker I was referring to the system that I posted that would include the expected value of hit...
 
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