That dam number 04!!!

[Dennis Bassboss]

I have looked at this for the Canadian 6/49 having in mind that the 04 is one number that shows itself mostly with a consecutive forming the winning set….
In only 95 draws of all the 273 draws that involved the 04 you don't find a consecutive.
All these stats with bonus you wind up with a consecutive 65.2% of the time.
In red when the 04 is the bonus
In green when another consecutive number is the bonus
Draw
numbers–consecutives
0010–- 03-04
0017–- 43-44-04-05
0023–-23-24-25
0024–-03-04-33-34
0027–- 09-10-11-03-04
0043–-none
0052–-none
0055–-none
0071–-02-03-04-26-27
0076–-none
0089–-none
0102–-none
0115–- 12-13-38-39
0117–- 03-04
0120–-11-12
0132–- none
0150–- 13-14
0151–-none
0158–-none
0162–-04-05
0167–-none
0171–-14-15-44-45
0178–-none
0190–-23-24
0194---none
0195–-04-05
0196–-39-40
0206–-none
0208–- none
0212–-04-05
0227–-none
0235–- 04-05-42-43
0240–-none
0247–-03-04-05
0254–- 33-34-37-38
0267–-04-05-34-35
0270–-none
0272–- 45-46-10-11
0280–-04-05
0291–- 25-26-27
0294–-23-24
0298–-none
0299–- 25-26
0311–-33-34
0328–- 34-35
0333–- 38-39-43-44-45
0351–- 40-41-10-11
0352–-none
0360–-none
0363–-38-39
0368–-20-21
0371–-30-31
0373–-none
0380–-22-23-28-29
0381–-03-04
0383–- 07-08
0385–-09-10-11
0387–-03-04-13-14
0390–-14-15
0395–-03-04-07-08
0402–-08-09
0419–- 22-23
0422–-07-08-42-43
0428–-03-04
0431–- 18-19-40-41
0451–-04-05-06
0459–- 04-05
0471–- 31-32-33
0484–-16-17-18
0486–-none
0489–-none
0501–-34-35
0504–-04-05-24-25
0507–-47-48-49
0509–- 46-47
0512–- 19-20-15-16
0518–-32-33
0525–-none
0532–-none
0549–-none
0552–-none
0557–-none
0566–- 26-27
0567–- 16-17-40-41
0580–-03-04-21-22
0584–- 44-45-32-33
0590–-none
0597–-26-27
0601–- 24-25
0604–- 25-26
0617–-none
0640–-none
0652–-none
0661–-03-04
0662–-08-09-39-40
0682–- none
0690–-none
0697–-04-05
0712–- 04-05
0739–-none
0741–-none
0745–-04-05
0751–-03-04
0752–-none
0773– -39-40-45-46
0780–- 03-04
0781–- 08-09
0786–-none
0792–-08-09
0799–-04-05
0807–- 12-13
0816–-none
0818–- 48-49
0819–03-04
0829– 47-48-04-05
0833– 03-04
0845– 27-28-29
0852–12-13-14-27-28
0854– 04-05-06
0864–04-05-06
0877– none
0883–01-02-03-04
0893– 03-04-19-20
0897–none
0903– 48-49
0904–none
0947–none
0949–04-05
0965–none
0967–46-47
0968– 39-40-42-43-17-18
0990–none
0993–08-09
0994– 20-21-03-04
0996– 33-34
1005– 40-41
1007–27-28
1008–04-05
1015– 23-24-47-48
1016–none
1029–none
1035–none
1040–22-23-34-35
1043–20-21
1044–none
1047– 09-10-30-31
1066– 30-31-32
1072–none
1077–30-31
1078–none
1096–none
1112– 35-36
1121–none
1167–26-27
1169– 23-24
1170–45-46
1173–03-04-11-12
1191–04-05
1192–none
1209–none
1212–45-46
1218– 03-04-05
1219– none
1224– 38-39
1225– 30-31-03-04
1226– 25-26
1242– 39-40-07-08
1243–11-12
1244–22-23
1255–30-31
1260–none
1266–none
1272– 03-04
1283– 03-04
1307–37-38
1310–14-15
1311– none
1331–04-05
1335–47-48
1339– 45-46
1341–48-49
1342– 03-04
1344– 41-42
1354–none
1360– 04-05
1361– 04-05-07-08-03-04
1366– 03-04
1374– 40-41
1375–none
1380– 43-44
1382–35-36
1396– 04-05
1405– 30-31-32
1408–04-05
1409–44-45
1411–04-05
1416–- 03-04-19-20
1417–- 30-31
1427–- none
1441–-04-05
1446–-03-04-05
1468–-none
1493–-none
1494–-none
1497–-none
1499–- none
1515–-21-22
1517–-none
1521–-08-09-47-48
1523–-none
1526–-32-33
1532–- none
1539–-none
1546–-none
1552–-18-19
1564–- 03-04-05
1566–-04-05
1568–-22-23-42-43
1588–-33-34
1596–-03-04
1605–- none
1617–-none
1618–-none
1621–-none
1622–- 10-11
1625–-36-37
1627–-27-28
1628–- none
1634–- 41-42
1637–-03-04-34-35-36
1647–- 04-05
1658–-16-17
1664–- none
1670–-none
1674–-46-47
1681–- 18-19
1685–-04-05-29-30
1686–-none
1708–-none
1710–- 32-33
1716–- none
1720–-none
1734–-27-28
1757–-36-37
1764–-33-34
1774–-09-10
1786–-01-02
1789–- none
1791–- 20-21-42-43
1836–- none
1840–-none
1842–-42-43
1853–-none
1856–-none
1860–-none
1866–-02-03-04
1874–-19-20
1881–-none
1887–-29-30
1889–-39-40
1892–-44-45
1896–-02-03-04
1911–-none
1913–-08-09
1919–-03-04
1928–-29-30
1931–-none
1934–-none
1939–-none
1944–-03-04
1947–-none
1960–-03-04
1969–-03-04
I guess there's more to double check here...What all of this means is simple when you play the 04 always include a consecutive in your set...I think that this will occur more times with the 04 than for the expected values...
Could you confirm that Gilles please?

 

[Beaker]

This time I'll help.

Counts are OK except 1255 4-9-13-22-24-30 B31

so,

1255--30-31

So the total with at least 1 consecutive is 177 / 273 = 64.8%

Great stats buddy but you must be by now

 

[Dennis Bassboss]

This time I'll help.

Everything is OK except 1255 4-9-13-22-24-30 B31

so,

1255--30-31

So the total with at least 1 consecutive is 177 / 273 = 64.8%

Great stats buddy but you must be by now

You are right Beaker I just checked that one I forgot that 30-31 pair.....Don't drink and drive but post stats and drink!!

 

[Dennis Bassboss]

I'm on the wagon...

 

[Beaker]

I'm on the wagon...

Not yet Buddy have another and check these:

0299--25-26
0781--8-9
1896--2-3-4

Now, I might have to later at the Pub

 

[Dennis Bassboss]

Not yet Buddy have another and check these:

0299--25-26
0781--8-9
1896--2-3-4

Now, I might have to later at the Pub

Right again here Beaker....The funny thing about this is that I have all of these here...but somehow.....

 

[Dennis Bassboss]

At 65.2%...I guess that takes good care of the expected values....

 

[Dennis Bassboss]

This is only a start folks...wait until I post all of my matrix....

 

[Beaker]

At 65.2%...I guess that takes good care of the expected values....

I think it is still only 177 hit, you may have counted that 781 but just didn't put the pair in.

Anyway, I think you've opened a can of worms here - what about the others?? Is 4 the best one or are there others??

 

[Dennis Bassboss]

I'm counting 178 now Beaker... I had that one Hilighted in red already but somehow I skip that one with the count...Must be that white wine...

 

[GillesD]

And other numbers too

Why not number 29 which has a 67.0% rate of succes by your definition.

 

[Dennis Bassboss]

Re: And other numbers too

Why not number 29 which has a 67.0% rate of succes by your definition.

Interesting I'll get that one....Do you know what would be the expected value for this or what is the average of this happening by my definition of it for all the numbers? I have the expected value without bonus...but not with bonus..

 

[Dennis Bassboss]

I suspect that not many numbers are performing that way with consecutives...

 

[GillesD]

Not many, Dennis? Review the table below and you will find out this is a common occurence.

The data is given in the following order:
- the number (1 to 49)
- the number of times it came out first without the bonus number, then including it
- the number of times two consecutives numbers were involved in the same draw, first without the bonus number, then including it
- the % of time it happened first without the bonus number, then including it

01--247--288--135--172--54.7%--59.7%
02--234--265--122--156--52.1%--58.9%
03--239--287--145--181--60.7%--63.1%
04--236--273--137--177--58.1%--64.8%
05--239--284--141--172--59.0%--60.6%
06--221--247--124--149--56.1%--60.3%
07--250--288--140--175--56.0%--60.8%
08--235--278--147--180--62.6%--64.7%
09--242--278--147--185--60.7%--66.5%
10--227--267--131--160--57.7%--59.9%
11--218--268--137--168--62.8%--62.7%
12--241--281--136--170--56.4%--60.5%
13--220--266--142--177--64.5%--66.5%
14--235--271--113--160--48.1%--59.0%
15--219--246--124--156--56.6%--63.4%
16--242--287--146--175--60.3%--61.0%
17--234--273--134--161--57.3%--59.0%
18--234--279--138--168--59.0%--60.2%
19--245--280--137--167--55.9%--59.6%
20--258--298--140--183--54.3%--61.4%
21--240--289--135--170--56.3%--58.8%
22--229--266--126--166--55.0%--62.4%
23--235--282--137--173--58.3%--61.3%
24--223--258--118--162--52.9%--62.8%
25--231--278--132--168--57.1%--60.4%
26--238--276--120--163--50.4%--59.1%
27--272--318--153--203--56.3%--63.8%
28--230--268--134--163--58.3%--60.8%
29--229--261--140--175--61.1%--67.0%
30--246--290--127--176--51.6%--60.7%
31--289--328--155--195--53.6%--59.5%
32--259--294--146--187--56.4%--63.6%
33--226--273--139--175--61.5%--64.1%
34--279--317--149--191--53.4%--60.3%
35--232--265--131--157--56.5%--59.2%
36--248--294--151--185--60.9%--62.9%
37--228--271--125--157--54.8%--57.9%
38--252--291--145--179--57.5%--61.5%
39--244--294--151--186--61.9%--63.3%
40--259--293--146--185--56.4%--63.1%
41--241--290--139--176--57.7%--60.7%
42--253--299--134--180--53.0%--60.2%
43--270--313--155--203--57.4%--64.9%
44--254--289--139--170--54.7%--58.8%
45--248--293--147--180--59.3%--61.4%
46--252--288--144--187--57.1%--64.9%
47--273--318--156--202--57.1%--63.5%
48--221--255--130--166--58.8%--65.1%
49--245--284--114--154--46.5%--54.2%

So without the bonus number, it ranges from 46.5% to 64.5% and with the bonus number, from 54.2% to 67.0%.

And I still get 177 times for #04 including draw #299, 781 1nd 1896.

 

[Dennis Bassboss]

Not many, Dennis? Review the table below and you will find out this is a common occurence.

The data is given in the following order:
- the number (1 to 49)
- the number of times it came out first without the bonus number, then including it
- the number of times two consecutives numbers were involved in the same draw, first without the bonus number, then including it
- the % of time it happened first without the bonus number, then including it

01--247--288--135--172--54.7%--59.7%
02--234--265--122--156--52.1%--58.9%
03--239--287--145--181--60.7%--63.1%
04--236--273--137--177--58.1%--64.8%
05--239--284--141--172--59.0%--60.6%
06--221--247--124--149--56.1%--60.3%
07--250--288--140--175--56.0%--60.8%
08--235--278--147--180--62.6%--64.7%
09--242--278--147--185--60.7%--66.5%
10--227--267--131--160--57.7%--59.9%
11--218--268--137--168--62.8%--62.7%
12--241--281--136--170--56.4%--60.5%
13--220--266--142--177--64.5%--66.5%
14--235--271--113--160--48.1%--59.0%
15--219--246--124--156--56.6%--63.4%
16--242--287--146--175--60.3%--61.0%
17--234--273--134--161--57.3%--59.0%
18--234--279--138--168--59.0%--60.2%
19--245--280--137--167--55.9%--59.6%
20--258--298--140--183--54.3%--61.4%
21--240--289--135--170--56.3%--58.8%
22--229--266--126--166--55.0%--62.4%
23--235--282--137--173--58.3%--61.3%
24--223--258--118--162--52.9%--62.8%
25--231--278--132--168--57.1%--60.4%
26--238--276--120--163--50.4%--59.1%
27--272--318--153--203--56.3%--63.8%
28--230--268--134--163--58.3%--60.8%
29--229--261--140--175--61.1%--67.0%
30--246--290--127--176--51.6%--60.7%
31--289--328--155--195--53.6%--59.5%
32--259--294--146--187--56.4%--63.6%
33--226--273--139--175--61.5%--64.1%
34--279--317--149--191--53.4%--60.3%
35--232--265--131--157--56.5%--59.2%
36--248--294--151--185--60.9%--62.9%
37--228--271--125--157--54.8%--57.9%
38--252--291--145--179--57.5%--61.5%
39--244--294--151--186--61.9%--63.3%
40--259--293--146--185--56.4%--63.1%
41--241--290--139--176--57.7%--60.7%
42--253--299--134--180--53.0%--60.2%
43--270--313--155--203--57.4%--64.9%
44--254--289--139--170--54.7%--58.8%
45--248--293--147--180--59.3%--61.4%
46--252--288--144--187--57.1%--64.9%
47--273--318--156--202--57.1%--63.5%
48--221--255--130--166--58.8%--65.1%
49--245--284--114--154--46.5%--54.2%

So without the bonus number, it ranges from 46.5% to 64.5% and with the bonus number, from 54.2% to 67.0%.

And I still get 177 times for #04 including draw #299, 781 1nd 1896.

Great stats Gilles!These are going to be helpfull when choosing some numbers...It is good that you posted the numbers of occurencies in real number because a 10% differences is misleading when we look at the real numbers or number of times each number came up.. (for 300 draws as an example 10% = 30 draws)...A big thank you for these stats...Now I am going to look for the next level with each one of them trying to find if some consecutives are happenning more in some decades for each number ....I also do not see that many numbers at 64+ or more...Also funny to see the leader 29 at 67% but yet having only 261 draws to show compare to some others as 34 at 60.3%but yet having 317 draws to show that is a difference of 56 draws...Now what I mean here is will 29 be at that % when it reaches the 317 draws mark or better phrase will 29 keep that tendancy for the next 56 draws? I would bet my shirt that 29 will still be quite ahead of 34 in that department...Therefore It could influence my picking greatly...
The differences between these values should go increasingly for about 8,000 or more draws ...only after that will we be able to see a reversing of that trend...Many poor performer taking over...
250 to 300 draws is a very very small sample compared to the overall possibilities...but in my personnal opinion..it can show the trends it is taking..
As for that number 04 I'll recheck that later as it is not very important to me now...All the draw numbers being there....Again I would like to thank you Gilles for everything !

 

[dwoods99]

Interesting

Thanks to Dennis and GillesD for the info

 

[GillesD]

To Dennis

....Do you know what would be the expected value for this or what is the average of this happening by my definition of it for all the numbers? I have the expected value without bonus...but not with bonus..

What is the expected value without bonus you mentionned?

The average value without the bonus is 56.9% and with the bonus, it is 61.7%

 

[Dennis Bassboss]

Re: To Dennis

What is the expected value without bonus you mentionned?

The average value without the bonus is 56.9% and with the bonus, it is 61.7%

I have this from a commercial software...
--%------consecutives--every
50.5%----1-1-1-1-1-1-----02
38.8%----2-1-1-1-1-------02.6
05.8%----2-2-1-1---------17.2
00.1%----2-2-2-----------1055.9
03.9%----3-1-1-----------25.8
00.6%----3-2-1-----------176
00.0%----3-3------------->9999.9
00.3%----4-1-1-----------352
00.0%----4.2-------------7391
00.0%----5-1-------------7391
00.0%----6--------------->9999.9
According to this the expected value for all the consecutives showing up without bonus should total around 49.5% so at 56.9% on average from your chart we are 7.4% higher than expected...From your chart only 2 numbers are under 49.5%...14 with 48.1% and 49 with 46.5%....When I look at 13 being at 64.5% and compare it to this expected value I get a difference of 15%...Which would be 33 more draws having a consecutive without bonus than expected....Very interesting...
Now another thing that it tells me is that in some cases for a consecutive to show up...The better it is to choose an immediate adjacent number as a consecutive ...example lets take the 14 if I want to play that number....I would choose my consecutive between 13 or 15 because I know that it is likely for that number to come up with one of these 2 numbers...That is if I go with what has occured in the past...Out of the 113 draws that this number came up with a consecutive 38 of these consecutives without bonus have been between 13 (21 times)and 15(17 times)
..In % this value represents 33.63% of the time which is enough for me....About 1/3 of the time there's a consecutive involving the 14...The 13 or 15 is going to be there also...And I would play the numbers that usually comes up the most with 14...namely that
---without bonus---with bonus
01=40 times---47 times
40=33 times---42 times
27=31 times---45 times
44=31 times---42 times
05=30 times---43 times and so on...
Of course all this personnal theory is base upon that trend keeping up....

 

[GillesD]

Odds for consecutive

Yes, I have the same set of data (possibly from the same source). I ran a small program for all possibilities with 6 and 7 numbers out of 49 and this is what I get:

For 6 numbers, 13,983,816 combinations out of which 6,924,764 have at least two consecutives or 49.5%.

For 7 numbers, 85,900,584 combinations out of which 47,580,016 have at least two consecutives or 55.4%.

I maintain a file with all possibilities of consecutives, from no consecutive numbers (1-1-1-1-1-1) to all numbers being consecutive (6) and results are very near the values quoted. These are the values I have for 1978 draws and not considering the bonus number:

1-1-1-1-1-1---1016 (51.4%)---999 (50.5%)
2-1-1-1-1---753 (38.1%)---768 (38.8%)
2-2-1-1---124 (06.3%)---115 (05.8%)
2-2-2---1 (00.1%)---2 (00.1%)
3-1-1-1---63 (03.2%)---77 (03.9%)
3-2-1---15 (00.8%)---11 (00.6%)
3-3---0 (00.0%)---0 (00.0%)
4-1-1---5 (00.3%)---6 (00.3%)
4-2---0 (00.0%)---0 (00.0%)
5-1---1 (00.1%)---0 (00.0%)
6---0 (00.0%)---0 (00.0%)

The data is listed in the following order:
- the distributin of consecutive numbers
- the number of times it occured (and the percentage)
- the number of times it should happen (and the percentage)

But there is something that does not click in there. It may be due to the multiple consecutive numbers that increase the numbers we get for all numbers. I will try to investigate.

 

[Dennis Bassboss]

Re: Odds for consecutive

Yes, I have the same set of data (possibly from the same source). I ran a small program for all possibilities with 6 and 7 numbers out of 49 and this is what I get:

For 6 numbers, 13,983,816 combinations out of which 6,924,764 have at least two consecutives or 49.5%.

For 7 numbers, 85,900,584 combinations out of which 47,580,016 have at least two consecutives or 55.4%.

I maintain a file with all possibilities of consecutives, from no consecutive numbers (1-1-1-1-1-1) to all numbers being consecutive (6) and results are very near the values quoted. These are the values I have for 1978 draws and not considering the bonus number:

1-1-1-1-1-1---1016 (51.4%)---999 (50.5%)
2-1-1-1-1---753 (38.1%)---768 (38.8%)
2-2-1-1---124 (06.3%)---115 (05.8%)
2-2-2---1 (00.1%)---2 (00.1%)
3-1-1-1---63 (03.2%)---77 (03.9%)
3-2-1---15 (00.8%)---11 (00.6%)
3-3---0 (00.0%)---0 (00.0%)
4-1-1---5 (00.3%)---6 (00.3%)
4-2---0 (00.0%)---0 (00.0%)
5-1---1 (00.1%)---0 (00.0%)
6---0 (00.0%)---0 (00.0%)

The data is listed in the following order:
- the distributin of consecutive numbers
- the number of times it occured (and the percentage)
- the number of times it should happen (and the percentage)

But there is something that does not click in there. It may be due to the multiple consecutive numbers that increase the numbers we get for all numbers. I will try to investigate.

You might very well be right here Gilles...I also have a hard time with being so high overall compared to these expected values...
Your compiled datas just posted are more like it...I wonder how it could affect your prior chart not compiling them twice when a double or triple consecutive occured...maybe that 04 should be rated higher after all concerning these consecutives...knowing that the 177 total with at least a consecutive for that one will not change?