Something to Ponder

P

peter

Member
Before the lotto draw starts, everyone has an equal chance to win the 649 jackpot.
Before the draw begins, you have a 1 in 13,983,816 chance to win the jackpot.
Your watching the draw and as the first number comes out, you discover one of your tickets has a match.
There will be 1,712,304 matching tickets with that first number.
There are now 12,271,512 tickets, that no longer qualify to win the jackpot.( and you wonder why I ask for only one posted best bet)
As the second ball comes out of the machine, you discover, you have one ticket with the first and second numbers drawn, great news, cause you only need 4 more numbers to win the jackpot.
Your ticket that has the first two numbers is one of 178,365 tickets left that qualify for that jackpot.
you wait for that third number to drop, again you have a match, Wow!!! your good!!! that one 3 number matching ticket is only one of 15,180 tickets left that could possibly win the jackpot.
The excitement mounts, as that 4th number comes out, your batting 4 for 4, two numbers left for the jackpot. you discover a wet spot on the front of your pants, your ticket is one of 990 tickets left that could win the big one.
The moral of the story is the first 2 numbers to come out are the most important.
So choose your best bet carefully, and understand the odds, you could be out of the game, before your really in it.:agree:
 
H

hot4

Member
Sorry Peter but I can hit my 2 BB after the fourth number, knowing yet I will not win. Order doesn't matter I think.

What I understand from your post, is that 4in47 is better to get than 6 in 49, regardless number order. Am I understanding you well?
 
P

peter

Member
Order does'nt matter Frank, the example was for 6 out of 49 numbers, I was just trying to open up the eyes of players, as to the odds to win the jackpot, I just presented it in a different way.
Can you imagine, after the first number is drawn, over 12.7 million tickets no longer qualify to win the jackpot.
Once you get the first two numbers your odds are drastically reduced.
 
H

hot4

Member
I understand you Peter but my problem is the *first*.

I can hit the first two numbers and get nothing.

What you are showing is that in a 78,4 * smaller pool of lines it's easier to win some money, whatever prize you are pointing to.
 
P

peter

Member
Correct, you can get two numbers and not win anything, cause two numbers does'nt pay.
I'm saying if you get the first two numbers, what ever they may be, you now have a 1 in 178,365 chances that you will win the jackpot.
 
P

PAB

Member
You are Absolutely Right Peter :agree: .
I Also think that the First Two Balls Drawn are the Most Important. It is Not so Bad Not Having the First Ball Drawn ( Although we Wish we had ), Because you Immediately think that there is Still a Chance to Match 5 OR 5 and the Bonus Ball. It is this Second Ball Drawn that is the Killer, if you Don't Match that Either it Costs you 2 Prizes.
Still, lets Hope Somebody on this Board Wins Big Tonight.
Great Post for Putting it into Perspective by the Way.

All the Best.
PAB
:wavey:
 
P

peter

Member
Thanks for that Pab.
Now for all you detractors, regarding the Best Bet thread, keep this in mind. This is why it is crucial to come up with your one sure fire pick, and not some fluffy guess. If you don't have a best bet don't post one.
It is not a contest to see if you are right or wrong, it is a thread to come up with the best 6 winning numbers.
I truly hope you will see the value in the best bet thread, and not just some guy telling you what to do.
There truly is a purpose behind it.
And that is, for my self, and all of YOU to hopefully win some $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
 
P

peter

Member
hot4 said:
However, there are +- 69% of those 176,385 lines that have no prize! (123,410 lines) :agree:
Click to expand...
Correct, the main point your missing Frank, is that your odds have improved.
You go from odds of 1 in 13.9 mil down to 1 in 178 thousand.
 
H

hot4

Member
Not missing Peter.
In this pool of lines 69% has a prize!! How many lines have at least one prize in the 13,983,816?
It's a big difference yes, and with the 69% you can expect that 1 in 3 lines you play, will hit 3 or more numbers (I'm not using the 2+b prize) !! :eek:

Generally we expect 1 in 54 lines!

Any effort to get 2 numbers is well payed when good.
Not missing Peter, just exploring...
 
Brad

Brad

Member
< transferred to Lotto Wheels section see here >

Ok, I moved most posts ... hopefully what I did makes sense ... now Frank and Pete, if you could just edit/delete your stuff here it won't confuse others ... otherwise Pete's thread will look like my dog's breakfast bowl :D ...

Maybe LT could mop up my mess later when he gets a chance :eek:
 
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