Some of my believes in the lottery!!!

[mabuse]

Hi, folks!
I'd like to share some thoughts about the odds and probabilities of a lottery draw:
Let's take the "classic" 6/49 draw: Everywhere we're being told that there are 13,983,816 possible combinations for the 6 numbers being drawn. Correct...
We are also told that each of those combos has an equal chance of appearance, whether it'll be 1,2,3,4,5,6 or 3,15,21,35,38,45 for example.

I DON'T BELIEVE A WORD OF IT, although it's mathematically correct!!!!! Here's why:
The first combo consists of low numbers only whereas the second combo has an equal balance of highs and lows.

I think that we can only look at all the combinations being equal if the following would take place:

Imagine a draw machine of gigantic size!!! Inside this machine are 13,983,816 balls. Each ball contains one 6-number-combination like the ones mentioned above. The draw starts and only one ball is drawn which will give us the winning numbers.

My firm belief is that only if the winning combination is drawn in this rather impossible way that all combos have an equal chance of coming up!!!

OK! This is what I have "fabricated" in my mind!
I really do value all of your opinions, good or bad!!!
Maybe some of you share my thoughts, perhaps it's complete and utter rubbish......never mind!!!

I do look forward to hearing from you!!!

Thanks, all!!!

 

[blitzed]

hiya mabuse

yup, and lotteries have "test draws" which I believe allows them to filter out draws which they dislike.

then they can conviently just roll the video of the draw which they want to win...maximize jackpot roll-overs and generate hype.

cheers!
blitzed

 

[Icewynd]

As you say, lotteries don't draw "combinations" they draw balls. Each ball has no relationship to the ball that is drawn before it or after it, which is how combinations like 1-2-3-4-5-6 are possible and, indeed, have happened.

One reason that "balanced" combinations with mid-range sums come out more often is that there are just more of them -- this is what most of the 14 million combinations look like.

Also, playing 1-2-3-4-5-6 or any other "pattern" play will just lead to a tiny payout if it does win, as apparently many, many people play those numbers. And, NEVER play the "Lost" numbers -- apparently those are up there amongst the most common combinations played.

Good Luck!

 

[Frank]

The best way to answer your question is to remember that numbers are just one way of telling one ball from another. If we had pictures of animals on the balls the lottery would be just as valid, your ticket would be just as valid and we would still know who the winners are. Numbers are just a human thing, they mean something to us, and we attach special significance to certain sets of balls, simply because we have learned mathematics. Chance doesn't care about that and putting symbols on the balls instead of numbers would teach us that there are no special sequences, they are all equal.