Re: "Announcers" - detailed definition?

[mirage]

Re: "Announcers" - detailed definition?

Hello guys.
I finally had some spare time to read all the posts on Q & A since start of board. Too bad I didn't get on the train when it was leaving the station back in 1999 because I wouldn't be having to play catch up now. This board is pretty analytical so it seems strange to me that you have a such a concept known as "announcers". I've read the glossary definition but it tells one nothing. I've searched through a couple of lotteries looking for this mythical beast and although there are a few hints or traces here and there the more one looks the more it appears to be a maze of possibilities. So, other than the glossary definition what the heck are these "announcers" and why does it seem to be a well kept secret amongst the few? How about a precise, detailed definition and an example?

 

[peter]

Announcers are this:
for example when the 7 is drawn, what numbers usually are drawn in the next draw.
You would have to look at ALL the draws immediately after each time the 7 was drawn.
You do this for every number.
You can do this for pairs, as well, or any other criteria you set.
In simple terms what happens next when this is drawn.
I hope this explanation helps.

 

[mirage]

Announcers are this:
for example when the 7 is drawn, what numbers usually are drawn in the next draw.
You would have to look at ALL the draws immediately after each time the 7 was drawn.
You do this for every number.
You can do this for pairs, as well, or any other criteria you set.
In simple terms what happens next when this is drawn.
I hope this explanation helps.

Thanks so much for replying Peter. I really do appreciate that you took the time and effort. Awesome.
Ok, that much was already understood. In fact, combing through the histories, I think that if you take the 7 (or the 7 occuring with another number as in a pair) being drawn as an example, following the 7 in the next draw would be 6 numbers, or maybe 5 with the 7 as the repeat (not including the bonus to keep things more simple). Going through the histories sometimes one sees that a number (or two, even maybe 3) will immediately follow the 7 a bunch of times in separate draws, and one thinks aha! But then even more frequently you get completely different sets of 6 numbers following the 7, a handful or more of which there are numbers which may also be immediately following the 7 a bunch of times and appear to be alternative good prospects. This is also true for pairs which can make things even more complicated. And you are left with scores of options from which to chose. So how does one chose? Randomly...? I'm not trying to be cheeky - I'm just really curious.
Does this make any sense?
Has anyone ever done any stats to check out as to whether this is a real phenomenon?

 

[peter]

Well Mirage, ,It sounds like you do understand announcers, yes using your example that sometimes a totally different set of numbers occur after the 7 has been drawn.
That is why if you go to the history of each number and see how many times each of the other 48 numbers appear after that one number has come.
You can chart announcers many ways, as I have said, you can use any criteria, odd/even for example, LD's, or missed decades, all of these do tell a story.

 

[mirage]

Well Mirage, ,It sounds like you do understand announcers, yes using your example that sometimes a totally different set of numbers occur after the 7 has been drawn.
That is why if you go to the history of each number and see how many times each of the other 48 numbers appear after that one number has come.
You can chart announcers many ways, as I have said, you can use any criteria, odd/even for example, LD's, or missed decades, all of these do tell a story.

Peter, (even as I write this I am looking through the histories for "announcers", but feeling a bit foolish), the various criteria leave much room for doubt. There does not seem to be a lot of rhyme or reason and it seems to boil down to guesswork in the end. It may be an interesting exercise but is this rational? I'm not saying its a totally pointless pursuit because the odd time it may work. However, that's a mighty big if.

 

[mirage]

Here's a weird little observation - has any one else noticed that the numbers that are drawn following "announcers" have repeaters, probably about the same percentage of time as the occurrence of repeaters in the lottery draw itself?
In other words, take a number that was drawn in the last lottery.
Look at the last time that number hit, what are the numbers drawn immediately following that previous hit - about 60% of the time (I think it is) one of those numbers will hit again in the next draw.

 

[gsobier]

Peter:

We gotta come up with a different name for things like LDs, missing decades other than Announcers... ...too much confusion here. Any thoughts?

Regards,
George

Well Mirage, ,It sounds like you do understand announcers, yes using your example that sometimes a totally different set of numbers occur after the 7 has been drawn.
That is why if you go to the history of each number and see how many times each of the other 48 numbers appear after that one number has come.
You can chart announcers many ways, as I have said, you can use any criteria, odd/even for example, LD's, or missed decades, all of these do tell a story.

 

[mirage]

5+ AM and I'm burning the midnight oil unable to sleep. I know this is when most normal folks are soon to wake up to get ready for normal daily routine. Fortunately for me I can set my own hours these days for the most part. However I'm out of sync with the rest of the world.

My own comment in my previous post was a bit premature - more like 50% average. Have no idea how one would automate somethng as complex as that. Use average of no more than 1- most 2, from up to the 6 different sets, or less, and thoroughly mix. (Sounds like a cake recipe.) One thing noticed is that some numbers duplicate in the different sets - this might be coincidence or it might be predictive.

I do appreciate your efforts Peter but in fact I was looking for something a bit more clarifying. Not convinced that "announcers" more than just another idea, which has some merit, but which gives no more than partial results at best. (Anyone on the board want to challenge me/set me right?)

 

[Rob50]

The simplest and most basic truth of a lotto 6/49 is: "The probability for a number to appear in a draw is 6/49 = 0.1224 (keeping it simple, without the bonus number)". Applying the sum and product rules of theory of probability one can derive other correct statements. For example, since we are talking about ANNOUNCERS, the probability for a number n1 to be announcer of another number n2 is 6/49 * 6/49 = 0.01499 or about 1.5%. In other words, whatever lottery 6/49 you chose, Canadian or Croatian, English or Australian a pre-selected pair, in terms of announcers and successor, will appear with an average frequency of 1.5%, within a certain range depending of the number of draws and confidence level chosen. This is not much in terms of predicting anything useful, and I think you are very right about the ANNOUNCERS, mirage.

There are lots of "statistical speculations" and "psychic power" around.

 

[mirage]

The simplest and most basic truth of a lotto 6/49 is: "The probability for a number to appear in a draw is 6/49 = 0.1224 (keeping it simple, without the bonus number)". Applying the sum and product rules of theory of probability one can derive other correct statements. For example, since we are talking about ANNOUNCERS, the probability for a number n1 to be announcer of another number n2 is 6/49 * 6/49 = 0.01499 or about 1.5%. In other words, whatever lottery 6/49 you chose, Canadian or Croatian, English or Australian a pre-selected pair, in terms of announcers and successor, will appear with an average frequency of 1.5%, within a certain range depending of the number of draws and confidence level chosen. This is not much in terms of predicting anything useful, and I think you are very right about the ANNOUNCERS, mirage.

There are lots of "statistical speculations" and "psychic power" around.

Rob50 - this is probably the most lucid and concise analysis i've read anywhere regarding the whole "repeat" phenomena. Thanks!

 

[thornc]

Unfortunately it is wrong!

The probability of the 1st number drawn is 1/49, the 2nd is 1/48 and so on! Nick once supplied a link to a nice paper that explain it properly! I don't have the time to try to find that paper or explain the rest myself but I am certain that the Math experts around here can explain it!

And btw, no one said that this announcers thingy was a sure thing. As everyone know few things in life are certain, one just just does its best to adapt and predict the best action to take! Not to mention that life is full of things that happen against impossible odds (probability you name it)!

 

[Beaker]

You have part of the story on announcers - and only a very small part.

Announcers can come from any dimension of draws not just the previous draw and any dimension within draws - in fact quint announcers are very interesting to look at.

For example.

Draw 2143 was 6-7-9-11-30-43 B4. What are the single/double/triple/quad/quint announcers from this draw for draw 2147 four draws later?? and from 2142 and 2141 and on and on

You can't look at the numbers in isloation you must consider what else is going on. Thus will put you closer to home plate.

Don't forget - numbers can be announced

 

[Rob50]

For Thornc:

Fortunately you and the article you have read are wrong and that's why:

1. The probability for a number to be drawn first is 1/49. Here we all agree.

2. The probability for a number to be drawn second is 1/48, but after the first number has been already drawn, so it is what it is called a conditional probability. The Event of a number being drawn second is a compound one. The elementary events are:
a) not to be drawn as first number. The probability 1-1/49 = 48/49. (because how can a number be drawn second, if it has been already drawn as first, right?)
b) to be drawn as second number.
Based on the product rule (Those are in the books, not in some articles) probability for a number to be drawn second is 48/49 * 1/48 = 1/49.

3. To be drawn third:
a. Not to be drawn first :48/49
b. Not to be drawn second 47/48
c To be drawn third 1/47
Product: 48/49 *47/48*1/47 = 1/49

and so on:

No matter what is the order of being drawn all the numbers have equal probability of being drawn anywhere in the sequence.

Further, don't you see Thornc that pushing your rule to the extreme, will create an absurd situation if the drawing continues till the last, 49-th number. Based on what you say the probability of whatever number to be drawn 49-th would be one.
So for my question what is the probability for the number 7 to be drawn 49-th. Your answer would be: ONE. My next question what is the probability that number 22 be drawn 49-th. Your answer again ONE!
I hope you understand now that all the numbers have an equal probability to be drawn in whatever order and that is 1/49, which bring the probability for being drawn in a line of 6 for whatever number (applying the sum rule) to 6/49.



For Beaker:

Why complicate the things when they can be kept simple. The probabilities with doubles, triples etc, will be enormously less than 1.5%. Within probability laws the numbers can't be announced, in some other magical - spiritual field not only numbers, so many things can be announced and predicted. (ex Nostradamus!!!)

 

[Rob50]

For mirage!

Glad that could help!

 

[powerball]

... its a totally pointless pursuit ...

As many have painfully found out, predicting the next random draw is impossible. Humans love to dream up patterns and "amazing coincidences" from random events, but there is no way to predict the future random event.

As BCLC has disclosed:
Lottery games, slot machines and roulette are examples of random event games. They are inconsistent and unpredictable. You cannot predict which number will occur based on previous results because each number is independent of each other.

 

[iago31416]

Each and every lotto draw occurs independently from all previous and future draws. As such, conditional probability does not enter into the picture. So let's suppose you suspect 7 is an announcer for 43 in lotto 6/49. Say 7 is drawn on Wednesday. Then the probability that 43 is drawn on Saturday is 1/49. Why? How many winning combinations of one number are there: 1. How many total combinations of 1 number out of 49 are there: 49. This argument also works for quint announcers or first draw after a full moon announcers - the draws are independent events.

For Thornc - the method of calculating probabilities seems to suggest a sampling scheme without replacement - i.e. drawing 6 balls from 49 one at a time without putting them back in. This would work to calculate probabilites in a single draw (but it would take a long time).

 

[thornc]

Rob,
You and me are both correct.
Rob your point of view is prior to the draw, mine is during the draw! So your questions make the good point, but it all depends! If prior to the draw you ask me those I will answer like you, but if you ask me during the draw I will tell which one is the last based on the already drawned!

iago, you did get my point of view but I don't understand your comment....


You will have to forgive me for my very system's focoused knowledge of math.
Usually I tend to analise things like in a time series or a state machine! I guess messing with state-space, kalman filters and other things did that to me!

One question though where can I find a mathmatical proof that each draw is independent of others? I can't seem to be able to find a proof myself!!

 

[mirage]

(Originally posted by Powerball)

quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Originally posted by mirage
... its a totally pointless pursuit ...

- Don't want to be "lumped in" with Powerball!!!

Powerball - While I respect your views and your freedom to express them, I'm not quite as skeptical as you are.
I prefer to keep an open mind thanks...

 

[Beaker]

Each and every lotto draw occurs independently from all previous and future draws. As such, conditional probability does not enter into the picture. So let's suppose you suspect 7 is an announcer for 43 in lotto 6/49. Say 7 is drawn on Wednesday. Then the probability that 43 is drawn on Saturday is 1/49. Why? How many winning combinations of one number are there: 1. How many total combinations of 1 number out of 49 are there: 49. This argument also works for quint announcers or first draw after a full moon announcers - the draws are independent events.

For Thornc - the method of calculating probabilities seems to suggest a sampling scheme without replacement - i.e. drawing 6 balls from 49 one at a time without putting them back in. This would work to calculate probabilites in a single draw (but it would take a long time).

Good luck with your Qpiks
.... and never play Beaker's Law


.... don't ask - search

 

[gsobier]

Beaker:

Thats why there are Quick Picks... ...its like taxes... ...some one has to pay.

Regards,
George

Good luck with your Qpiks