Prediction Help Needed

[martor54]

Hi,

I'm looking for help on the following problem (it's similar to the lottery): I'm following a phenomenon and I'm taking readings 15 times a day. Each reading can be classed A, B or C. So, every day I'm getting a string of 15 readings. The readings are evenly spread during the day and they are independent. They don't influence each other in any way. So far, I have n days and n readings. I need to predict the string (the whole row) on day n+1.

Here's an example of what I'm getting:

Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10 Y11 Y12 Y13 Y14 Y15
==========================================================================
B C A B A B B C A C B C C B C
C C A B B C B C C A A C B A A
C A B B A C B C C B C A C A C
C B B C B A B A C A C C B A B
B A C C B C C B A C A A C B A
A A B A B B A C B A B C A A A
B A A C B A B B A A B A A B A
C B A B C C C C B B C B A A A
A A C B A B B C C C A C B A B
A B A B C B C B C A A B C C B
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
B C C C A A B C C B C A C B B
C B C C B A C B A C B A C A A
B C C C A C C A A B A B B C A
A B C A B A C A A C A B C A A
C B B B B C C B C B A A B B A
C B B A B C B A C B C C A B B
A B B C C B B C C A B C C C B

Shall I treat this as a matrix? Shall I treat each column independently bearing in mind that the readings are independent? How many lines should I have in order to be able to make a prediction? Any ideas would be apreciated. Or even a nudge in the right direction would do me so I don't waste any time. I can do a little bit of programming in QBasic (a bit obsolete, no graphics, but it works fine). I'm ready to help in exchange for good suggestions.

Thanks.

martor854

 

[PAB]

Hi martor54,

Did you have any luck with your request?

Regards,
PAB


-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-
12:45, restate my assumptions.
Mathematics is the language of nature.
Everything around us can be represented and understood through numbers.
If you graph the numbers of any system, patterns emerge. Therefore, there are patterns everywhere in nature.

 

[PAB]

Hi martor54,

I need to predict the string (the whole row) on day n+1.

I have had a play around with this.
If the following is close for the next string of 15 readings let me know.

B A A B A A A B B C A B B A C

Regards,
PAB


-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-
12:45, restate my assumptions.
Mathematics is the language of nature.
Everything around us can be represented and understood through numbers.
If you graph the numbers of any system, patterns emerge. Therefore, there are patterns everywhere in nature.

 

[martor54]

Hi PAB,
Thank you for your effort PAB. I've not have any luck so far with any useful suggestions. Only questions as to what it relates to. Fact is it's all genuinely theoretical and, if solved, it could help lotto approach as well. I couldn't say for sure what the next string is since the problem kinda sank to the bottom of the stack. I should have to re-start working on it. If you care to send me a private message, I'd appreciate it. Thanks.
Best regards,
martor54

 

[PAB]

Hi martor54,

Thanks for the reply.

I've not have any luck so far with any useful suggestions. Only questions as to what it relates to.

Can I assume from the above that you have posted this request on other sites because there is no trail of anybody else here posting a reply?
Surely, when you posted this request you were hoping for an answer to the next string, which I assume you already had, and if someone was able to come up with it, or close to it, we could continue to the next stage?
At what stage are you currently at?

Regards,
PAB


-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-
12:45, restate my assumptions.
Mathematics is the language of nature.
Everything around us can be represented and understood through numbers.
If you graph the numbers of any system, patterns emerge. Therefore, there are patterns everywhere in nature.

 

[martor54]

Hi PAB,
Thanks again for your previous contribution. I checked again and it seems the file I had on this matter is lost. I had been waiting a lot for someone to give me some hope. I did post this problem on another site that shall remain unnamed. Quite a few contributions. The most interesting seemed "multiple XmR charts". But it looked rather complicated to in my late fifties. I wanted something more intuitive or with the least amount of applied statistics. If we can develop something with your approach, it would benefit everybody.
Best regards,
martor54

 

[PAB]

Hi martor54,

The most interesting seemed "multiple XmR charts". But it looked rather complicated to me in my late fifties. I wanted something more intuitive or with the least amount of applied statistics. If we can develop something with your approach, it would benefit everybody.

I don't know about the multiple XmR charts but I will have a look into them later.
My approach was simply to setup a Skip chart for each of the Y1:Y15.
I did this by splitting the Y1 category into three representing A, B & C and then applied a Skip formula to each.
Then I applied a MAX formula to the three categories.
I replicated this for the Y2:Y15 categories and then applied CONCATENATE to produce the string of what could possibly be the next set of fifteen letters.
Let me know what you think or if you have any theories.
I hope this helps!

Regards,
PAB


-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-
12:45, restate my assumptions.
Mathematics is the language of nature.
Everything around us can be represented and understood through numbers.
If you graph the numbers of any system, patterns emerge. Therefore, there are patterns everywhere in nature.

 

[martor54]

Hi PAB,
What you are saying looks very interesting. Are we talking about Excel macros? As for XmR charts, I was indicated a book, which I got eventually, to start with and I can send to you. Why not try and find me at a "boiling" email site of "tiny" soft (I think you got the idea.). Same name as here.
Thanks and best regards,
martor54

 

[PAB]

Hi martor54,

Are we talking about Excel macros?

No, these are just straight forward formulas.

Regards,
PAB


-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-
12:45, restate my assumptions.
Mathematics is the language of nature.
Everything around us can be represented and understood through numbers.
If you graph the numbers of any system, patterns emerge. Therefore, there are patterns everywhere in nature.

 

[martor54]

Hi PAB,
I'm all ears (and eyes).
Regards,
martor54

 

[PAB]

Hi martor54,

I'm all ears (and eyes).

I could upload the file I have created and post the link to it here if you would like?
You could then have a look through it and see what you think.

Regards,
PAB


-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-
12:45, restate my assumptions.
Mathematics is the language of nature.
Everything around us can be represented and understood through numbers.
If you graph the numbers of any system, patterns emerge. Therefore, there are patterns everywhere in nature.

 

[martor54]

Hi PAB,
By all means. Or you can send it to me directly on hot mail. Same name. Thanks.
Best regards,
martor54

 

[PAB]

Hi martor54,

I could upload the file I have created and post the link to it here if you would like?

By all means.

I have uploaded the file for you.

MediaFire - Prediction

http://www.mediafire.com/view/?tvoj81eohssoc8r

Please let me know what you think.

Regards,
PAB


-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-
12:45, restate my assumptions.
Mathematics is the language of nature.
Everything around us can be represented and understood through numbers.
If you graph the numbers of any system, patterns emerge. Therefore, there are patterns everywhere in nature.

 

[martor54]

Hi PAB,
Thank you for your effort. I've just downloaded the file. Hopefully, I'll get back to you today.
Best regards,
martor54

 

[PAB]

Hi martor54,

Thank you for your effort. I've just downloaded the file.

You're welcome.
Just let me know what you think when you time to look at it?

Regards,
PAB


-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-
12:45, restate my assumptions.
Mathematics is the language of nature.
Everything around us can be represented and understood through numbers.
If you graph the numbers of any system, patterns emerge. Therefore, there are patterns everywhere in nature.

 

[martor54]

Hi PAB,
It looks most impressive. You can even see the discrete changes occurring once in a while when changing values A, B and/or C in rows. I have been working on the sample file downloaded from mediafire. I can't help noticing, though, that if I replace all elements Y1 thru Y15, top to bottom by a single value, I'm getting the following situations:

ALL PRED
=========
A --> B
B --> A
C --> A

Is this the way it is supposed to be? Like I said before, it looks very promising and there is, probably, no easier way to get prediction. If, for example, the number of variables to predict could be expanded from A, B, C to A-I (or 0 to 9, the end-digits), we could have a fairly good system of prediction the next draw's numbers.

I'm awaiting your comments.
Best regards,
martor54

 

[PAB]

Hi martor54,

I am glad you like it!

I'm looking for help on the following problem (it's similar to the lottery).

So this is NOT similar to a Lotto for your requirements but it IS a Lotto and you are attempting to get a prediction analysis for Last Digits?
This is further confirmed by your comment:

If, for example, the number of variables to predict could be expanded from A, B, C to A-I (or 0 to 9, the end-digits), we could have a fairly good system of prediction the next draw's numbers.

If you had initially asked for this I could have setup the SpreadSheet accordingly.
Is this what you want?

Regards,
PAB


-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-
12:45, restate my assumptions.
Mathematics is the language of nature.
Everything around us can be represented and understood through numbers.
If you graph the numbers of any system, patterns emerge. Therefore, there are patterns everywhere in nature.

 

[martor54]

Hi PAB,
It IS great and I do like it! Mostly for the fact it is not complicated and even I can understand it. I am not a betting man myself as my inadequate means prevent it. I'd have followed last-digits threads on this and other forums had there been a reason to do so. No need for sneaky ways to acquire information. The lotto thing seemed to me like a good analogy with this problem. The end- or last-digit matter is something that just stayed with me after having tried to help an ex-friend with his SA Power Ball.

I'm sorry to keep nagging you with actual vs. predicted (or ALL / PRED) values in my previous post. I have the feeling the results should exhibit some kind of "circular" feature...

Actual Predicted
=================
A --> B
B --> A (not C?)
C --> A

Anyways, like I said before, well done and thenk you. Keep up the good work. I've also seen your contribution to other threads.
Best regards,
martor54

 

[PAB]

Hi martor54,

You're welcome!

If, for example, the number of variables to predict could be expanded from A, B, C to A-I (or 0 to 9, the end-digits), we could have a fairly good system of prediction the next draw's numbers.

If we were to go with your suggestion above there are a couple of things you need to know.

(1) If we use digits from 0-9 in the matrix rather than alpha entries (numeric as opposed to alpha would be an advantage for calculation purposes), we could then apply say something like a Skip chart to each of the columns. If this is the case then really there can only be a 0 in the first column, a 1 in the second column etc. I assume from your responses that this will NOT be the case. All well and good if it is though.

(2) If there could be any digit from 0 to 9 in any of the columns then that would increase the calculations from each column from 3 as it stands now to 10, and when multiplied by the number of columns we will end up with 30 columns of data that will then need to be analysed.

There are other aspects to bear in mind but these were just off the top of my head.

Perhaps if you could explain in a bit more detail what you are ACTUALLY trying to do, there may be a much simpler approach and solution to your request. Knowing how you arrive at the data you do could possibly be a big help.

Excel is brilliant at manipulating and organising data, but ONLY if the correct data and logic is applied initially.

Regards,
PAB


-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-∏-
12:45, restate my assumptions.
Mathematics is the language of nature.
Everything around us can be represented and understood through numbers.
If you graph the numbers of any system, patterns emerge. Therefore, there are patterns everywhere in nature.

 

[martor54]

Hi PAB,
I do admire the enthusiasm triggered by mentioning "digital". I'm sure I'm going to need your assistance on that later on. In this case, I'm afraid, it is only the alpha data that are of interest.

I would like you to tell me whether there is an error somewhere: I replaced all the data under Y1-Y15, in turn, with only one alpha character, A, B or C each time. Every line looked like this: "A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A" instead of, say, "B C A B A B B C A C B C C B C" (or any such alpha combination). Even the dots were replaced by that string of A's. So, I had A's all over. Predicted string was "B". I did the same thing with B's --> predicted string "A". I did that with C's --> predicted string "A" (A again?). The question is: "Where is C?" (C was never predicted though it, probably, should have been). Could you, please, explain why?

This is the only aspect I'm not clear yet. Otherwise, your solution looks brilliant.

Thank you again.
Best regards,
martor54