# ON49 for 11/09/2013

#### Icewynd

##### Member
Here are a few thoughts on what MIGHT come to pass for tonight's draw.

We are getting close to a draw where the first number is a double digit -- maybe tonight. After 10 single digit draws in a row, the probability is only 3% for another, i.e. 0.97 probability that the first decade will miss -- i.e. the first number drawn will be 10 or higher.

Looking at the columns, the 1st column (1-7) has hit 7 times in a row and has a 0.98 probability of a miss. The second column (8-14) has missed twice in a row and now has a 0.94 probability of a hit -- so I would guess that the first digit in tonight's draw might fall in the 10-14 range. Column E (29-35) also has a 0.95 probability of a hit.

As discussed in the previous thread, Row 6 (6,13,20,27,34,41,48) has missed for 6 draws in a row and has a 0.99 probability of a hit. Based on the above, we could eliminate the "6". Also, Row 4 (4,11,18,25,32,39,46) has hit 5 times in a row and has a 0.93 probability of a miss.

The group of numbers with skips in the 5-10 range (5,6,8,9,14,15,16,17,27,27,28,32,35,36,38,39,40) has missed for the last two games (quite unusual) and is due for a hit. I would drop 5,6,8 and 9 and we could eliminate a couple from Row 4, above. We might see 1-3 of the numbers coming from this group.

I would not expect the 43 to repeat again after 2 times in a row, in fact, looking at the Vtracs, the 18/43 combination will likely not repeat as Vtrac 18 has hit in the last 4 draws. Vtrac group 4 (13/38, 14/39, 15/40, 16,41) hasn't hit for 6 games in a row and is due for a hit while Vtrac group 2 (5/30, 6/31, 7/32, 8/33) hasn't hit for 4 games and is also due -- obviously with more emphasis on the 30's than on the single digits.

One or two of tonight's numbers should come from the last two draws (1,2,4,18,20,21,22,23,25,37,41,42,43). I would eliminate 1,2,4,18 and 43.

Numbers with a root sum of 8 have been missing for 7 games in a row and may hit: 8,17,26,35,44.

Hope this is helpful and GOOD LUCK!

#### Jamesgame

##### Member
Hey Icewynd,

I will let you know which numbers I choose and what happens.

#### Icewynd

##### Member
Good luck with your numbers, James!

I also meant to add that the first digit has a good chance of being an "innie" (i.e. a number that isn't on the outer fringes of the playslip) after 13 "outs" in a row. This would suggest 9-13 or 16-20 as the first digit. I like 10-13.

#### Jamesgame

##### Member
Great!

Take my email: autotouristic (at) gmail.com

#### Icewynd

##### Member
Results for ON49 11/09/2013 07-10-25-28-39-48 (43)

Icewynd said:
Here are a few thoughts on what MIGHT come to pass for tonight's draw.

We are getting close to a draw where the first number is a double digit -- maybe tonight. After 10 single digit draws in a row, the probability is only 3% for another, i.e. 0.97 probability that the first decade will miss -- i.e. the first number drawn will be 10 or higher. Not this time!

Looking at the columns, the 1st column (1-7) has hit 7 times in a row and has a 0.98 probability of a miss. The second column (8-14) has missed twice in a row and now has a 0.94 probability of a hit -- so I would guess that the first digit in tonight's draw might fall in the 10-14 range. Column E (29-35) also has a 0.95 probability of a hit. 10 hit from second column.

As discussed in the previous thread, Row 6 (6,13,20,27,34,41,48) has missed for 6 draws in a row and has a 0.99 probability of a hit. Based on the above, we could eliminate the "6". Also, Row 4 (4,11,18,25,32,39,46) has hit 5 times in a row and has a 0.93 probability of a miss. Moral of the story: when you're hot, you're hot!

The group of numbers with skips in the 5-10 range (5,6,8,9,14,15,16,17,26,27,28,32,35,36,38,39,40) has missed for the last two games (quite unusual) and is due for a hit. I would drop 5,6,8 and 9 and we could eliminate a couple from Row 4, above. We might see 1-3 of the numbers coming from this group.

I would not expect the 43 to repeat again after 2 times in a row, in fact, looking at the Vtracs, the 18/43 combination will likely not repeat as Vtrac 18 has hit in the last 4 draws. Vtrac group 4 (13/38, 14/39, 15/40, 16,41) hasn't hit for 6 games in a row and is due for a hit while Vtrac group 2 (5/30, 6/31, 7/32, 8/33) hasn't hit for 4 games and is also due -- obviously with more emphasis on the 30's than on the single digits. No 43 or 18 -- good ole Vtracs come through again.

One or two of tonight's numbers should come from the last two draws (1,2,4,18,20,21,22,23,25,37,41,42,43). I would eliminate 1,2,4,18 and 43.

Numbers with a root sum of 8 have been missing for 7 games in a row and may hit: 8,17,26,35,44. Nope, not this time.

Well, ya win some and ya lose some. All the numbers are there -- just not in the way that I thought it would happen.

I am often too early on these extreme situations. I keep forgetting the amount of momentum that a hot trend can build up!

Ah well, another draw Wednesday!

Good luck!

#### Jamesgame

##### Member
Icewynd said:
Results for ON49 11/09/2013 07-10-25-28-39-48 (43)

Well, ya win some and ya lose some. All the numbers are there -- just not in the way that I thought it would happen.

I am often too early on these extreme situations. I keep forgetting the amount of momentum that a hot trend can build up!

Ah well, another draw Wednesday!

Good luck!

Hey Icewynd,

This saturday's draw didn't go too well.
I spent \$60 on 10 abbreviated wheels using the set of numbers below:
Wheel #1: 8-14-16-21-33-41-47-28-30
Wheel #2: 8-10-17-25-34-45-31-29-46
Wheel #3: 10-21-22-24-35-45-32-28-44
Wheel #4: 11-15-19-22-27-34-41-44-36
Wheel #5: 11-16-26-29-34-48-37-32-40
Wheel #6: 12-15-17-26-40-45-31-38-27
Wheel #7:12-22-25-29-30-44-49-35-37
Wheel #8: 13-16-20-27-38-47-34-33-48
Wheel #9: 7-14-27-32-33-35-40-41-39
Wheel #10: 13-17-20-28-35-49-42-31-30

I chose those numbers based on your probabilities of them occuring again. Those that had a high probability were used multiple times in different wheels. I guess next time I should figure out a better way to organize the numbers in each wheel.

Had I placed the 7, 10, 25, 28, 39 and 48 in the same wheel, I would have hit the jackpot... Wouldn't that be nice.

#### Jamesgame

##### Member
Icewynd said:
Here are a few thoughts on what MIGHT come to pass for tonight's draw.

We are getting close to a draw where the first number is a double digit -- maybe tonight. After 10 single digit draws in a row, the probability is only 3% for another, i.e. 0.97 probability that the first decade will miss -- i.e. the first number drawn will be 10 or higher.

Looking at the columns, the 1st column (1-7) has hit 7 times in a row and has a 0.98 probability of a miss. The second column (8-14) has missed twice in a row and now has a 0.94 probability of a hit -- so I would guess that the first digit in tonight's draw might fall in the 10-14 range. Column E (29-35) also has a 0.95 probability of a hit.

As discussed in the previous thread, Row 6 (6,13,20,27,34,41,48) has missed for 6 draws in a row and has a 0.99 probability of a hit. Based on the above, we could eliminate the "6". Also, Row 4 (4,11,18,25,32,39,46) has hit 5 times in a row and has a 0.93 probability of a miss.

The group of numbers with skips in the 5-10 range (5,6,8,9,14,15,16,17,27,28,32,35,36,38,39,40) has missed for the last two games (quite unusual) and is due for a hit. I would drop 5,6,8 and 9 and we could eliminate a couple from Row 4, above. We might see 1-3 of the numbers coming from this group.

I would not expect the 43 to repeat again after 2 times in a row, in fact, looking at the Vtracs, the 18/43 combination will likely not repeat as Vtrac 18 has hit in the last 4 draws. Vtrac group 4 (13/38, 14/39, 15/40, 16,41) hasn't hit for 6 games in a row and is due for a hit while Vtrac group 2 (5/30, 6/31, 7/32, 8/33) hasn't hit for 4 games and is also due -- obviously with more emphasis on the 30's than on the single digits.

One or two of tonight's numbers should come from the last two draws (1,2,4,18,20,21,22,23,25,37,41,42,43). I would eliminate 1,2,4,18 and 43.

Numbers with a root sum of 8 have been missing for 7 games in a row and may hit: 8,17,26,35,44.

Hope this is helpful and GOOD LUCK!

Hey Icewynd,

When I was choosing my numbers, I noticed that some of your numbers were assigned more than one probability.
For example, first you stated that the numbers 32 and 39 in Row 4 (4,11,18,25,32,39,46) has hit 5 times in a row and has a 0.93 probability of a miss. Then you stated that the 32 and 39 in The group of numbers with skips in the 5-10 range (5,6,8,9,14,15,16,17,27,28,32,35,36,38,39,40) has missed for the last two games (quite unusual) and is due for a hit. So which proability is more true/should be followed?
Also I did not understand the group of numbers with skips in the 5-10 range. What are these numbers and where are they from? I have been unable to derive a mathematical formula for these numbers.

In the end, the 39 hit but the 32 did not. Had I used 39 more often than the 32 in my wheels, I would have matched 3 numbers in wheels #3 and #9.

#### Jamesgame

##### Member
Jamesgame said:
Hey Icewynd,

This saturday's draw didn't go too well.
I spent \$60 on 10 abbreviated wheels using the set of numbers below:
Wheel #1: 8-14-16-21-33-41-47-28-30
Wheel #2: 8-10-17-25-34-45-31-29-46
Wheel #3: 10-21-22-24-35-45-32-28-44
Wheel #4: 11-15-19-22-27-34-41-44-36
Wheel #5: 11-16-26-29-34-48-37-32-40
Wheel #6: 12-15-17-26-40-45-31-38-27
Wheel #7:12-22-25-29-30-44-49-35-37
Wheel #8: 13-16-20-27-38-47-34-33-48
Wheel #9: 7-14-27-32-33-35-40-41-39
Wheel #10: 13-17-20-28-35-49-42-31-30

I chose those numbers based on your probabilities of them occuring again. Those that had a high probability were used multiple times in different wheels. I guess next time I should figure out a better way to organize the numbers in each wheel.

Had I placed the 7, 10, 25, 28, 39 and 48 in the same wheel, I would have hit the jackpot... Wouldn't that be nice.

Overall, it looks like I was playing a lotto 6/39 game since I didn't include 10 numbers in the above 10 wheels. Maybe for next time I'll try one wheel with 39 numbers for a 3 if 6 guarantee win for \$50. I inputed all of those 39 numbers into the wheel and it got one match of 4/6 and two matches of 3/6 for a total of \$60 winning, thus a \$10 profit. I chose the 39 numbers in sequential order as the way you choose the numbers affect the results.

#### Icewynd

##### Member
Jamesgame said:
When I was choosing my numbers, I noticed that some of your numbers were assigned more than one probability.
For example, first you stated that the numbers 32 and 39 in Row 4 (4,11,18,25,32,39,46) has hit 5 times in a row and has a 0.93 probability of a miss. Then you stated that the 32 and 39 in The group of numbers with skips in the 5-10 range (5,6,8,9,14,15,16,17,27,28,32,35,36,38,39,40) has missed for the last two games (quite unusual) and is due for a hit. So which proability is more true/should be followed?

Yes, sometimes different statistics give a differing view of the same numbers. I haven't evaluated the predictive ability of different statistical groups, but my guess would be that they are roughly equally effective, but not at the same time. In this case, the Row 4 group did not miss (in fact it had 2 hits!!), so the 5-10 skips group was the better predictor. Next draw it might be the other way around. It is important to remember that these statistics are just indicators of what might happen and that there are no guarantees -- even at a probability of 0.9999.

Jamesgame said:
Also I did not understand the group of numbers with skips in the 5-10 range. What are these numbers and where are they from? I have been unable to derive a mathematical formula for these numbers.

These are numbers that last hit 5 to 10 games ago, i.e. they have skipped 5-10 games. I track numbers by skips <=4, 5-10, 11-15, and 16+. In an average draw 3.2 of the numbers will come from the <=4 group and 1.6 numbers will come from the 5-10 skip group. You will get one or two from the other groups but often one or both of these groups will miss. The skip 5-10 group only misses about 13% of draws and rarely misses twice in a row.

Jamesgame said:
In the end, the 39 hit but the 32 did not. Had I used 39 more often than the 32 in my wheels, I would have matched 3 numbers in wheels #3 and #9.

I hear ya. I had all the numbers (except 7) in my 4 combos, but there were no more than 2 on any of the lines. Its what keeps the game interesting, and frustrating.

Good luck!

#### Jamesgame

##### Member
Hey Icewynd,

In relation to your 5-10 skip pattern, I just realized a pattern that works 99% of the time. For every draw, there is almost always 1 number from the previous 2 draws. Check it out:
Nov. 9 Draw had the number 25 from the Nov. 2 Draw.
Nov. 6 Draw had the number 43 from the Nov. 2 Draw.
Nov. 2 Draw had the number 4 from the Oct. 30 Draw.
Oct. 30 Draw had the number 18 from the Oct. 26 Draw
etc...

#### Jamesgame

##### Member
Icewynd said:
I hear ya. I had all the numbers (except 7) in my 4 combos, but there were no more than 2 on any of the lines. Its what keeps the game interesting, and frustrating.

Good luck!

I think that for the next draw, we should collectively agree on our lotto wheel numbers so that we increase our chances. I usually play \$50-\$60 in lotto wheels or 7-10 different lotto wheels such as 4 if 5, 4 if 4 or 5 if 5 abbreviated lotto wheels with 8-12 numbers per wheel. Less than 8 numbers decreases your odds of selecting winning numbers within the wheel. More than 12 numbers exponentially increases the cost of a ticket, hence reducing the number of wheels you could play within your budget.

#### Icewynd

##### Member
Jamesgame said:
Hey Icewynd,

In relation to your 5-10 skip pattern, I just realized a pattern that works 99% of the time. For every draw, there is almost always 1 number from the previous 2 draws. Check it out:
Nov. 9 Draw had the number 25 from the Nov. 2 Draw.
Nov. 6 Draw had the number 43 from the Nov. 2 Draw.
Nov. 2 Draw had the number 4 from the Oct. 30 Draw.
Oct. 30 Draw had the number 18 from the Oct. 26 Draw
etc...

Average for all ON49 draws:

Repeat from last game 1.0 numbers
Repeat from second last game 0.85 numbers

Repeat from last draw:
32% no repeat
42% one repeat
21% two repeats
5% three repeats
0.4% four or more repeats

Repeats from second last draw:
40% no repeat
38% one repeat
19% two repeats
3% three repeats
0.2% four or more repeats