Money Management...

[fullhouse]

I have decided to start this new thread. And dedicate it to strategy funds and staking. It will be ongoing and I will give examples of exactly how I deal with the situations that the strategies present. Whether its a nice winning streak of 5 or more. Or how I deal with a loss or two. When I first began opperating strategies 4 years ago. I was all over the place. And very undisciplined. This severely slowed my progess down. Then I found a book that an Amercian guy had written about beating Roulette. In it he had a section dedicated to money management. And after reading and re-reading it several times. I soon realized that once you have a good strategy. How you manage your funds will dictate how (IF) you progress.

I remember Syscrash telling me he had started with 50 dollars. And 2 weeks or so later he had $500 plus. While this was amazing. I knew that if you grow that fast, you can also be wiped out faster. So I think some of you will find this thread useful. To give you real examples of just how I built my bankroll up over the years. And how if I even achieve a weekly growth of 15--20% I feel I have done very well. I will begin adding to this thread from tomorrow. Peace...

 

[endbox]

Hi fullhouse

What an excellent thread to start , I started getting carried away when the SBS went on that amazing run earlier on in the year......I nearley lost all my bank-roll (Started betting too early , with not enough funds to withstand a couple of losses)
Thanks again fullhouse , take care endbox

 

[fullhouse]

What an excellent thread to start , I started getting carried away when the SBS went on that amazing run earlier on in the year......I nearley lost all my bank-roll (Started betting too early , with not enough funds to withstand a couple of losses)
Thanks again fullhouse , take care endbox

Always a pleasure Endbox.

Okay lets get things going. I am going to give examples of how things can compare with two examples against the same results. We are going to assume you start with my recommemded minumum fighting funds of £200. Brett Morton the American roulette genius reckons it should be $400 or £400 minumum. So we are really going as low as possible here. Secondly you never risk more than 10%--12% of your funds on any one ISOLATOR, ELIMINATOR. To cover 4 bets the risk is 7.5 POINTS to stay in profit throughout all 4 bets. We give priority to the first 2 as they produce the majority of wins. So here is how I would stake the 4 bets. Keeping in mind that we are risking just over 11% A point will be worth £3.00

BET 1--£3.00
BET 2--£4.50
BET 3--£6.00
BET 4--£9.00 (Total risk=£22.50) AGAINST APRILS ISOLATOR RESULTS...

EXAMPLE 1 (LEVEL STAKES)
I-31 WON BET/2= 2-PTS PROFIT

I-32 WON BET/4= 1.5 PTS PROFIT

I-33 WON BET/1= 2-PTS PROFIT

I-34 WON BET/2= 2-PTS PROFIT

I-35 WON BET/1= 2-PTS PROFIT

I-36 WON BET/3= 1.5 PTS PROFIT

I-37 LOST= -7.5PTS

I-38 WON BET/1= 2-PTS PROFIT

I-39 WON BET/1= 2-PTS PROFIT

I-40 WON BET/4= 1.5 PTS PROFIT

TOTAL WON=16.5 PTS
TOTAL LOST=7.5 PTS (CLEAR PROFIT=9PTS)

Example 1 is to level stakes. Not my preferred method as it takes 4 wins to equal one complete loss. If you lose once in a month you will definately make profit. But if you lose twice you will only make a little or break even. Example 2 will be my recommended method, by reading what went before, we will adjust our stakes to make the most of the wins. I will post example 2 tonight. Peace...

 

[fullhouse]

Example 2**

Okay above is what would have resulted from betting in April with a set 4 bet progression. That never adjusts to take into account the changes in the results going on in the ISOLATOR. Now I am going to show you exactly how I would've staked April had I started covering the ISOLATOR at the beginning of the month.

EXAMPLE 2 (FLEXIBLE STAKES)

I-31 WON BET/2= 2PTS PROFIT

Now this is the second ISOLATOR in a row to win on the second bet as the last one in March won on bet 2 aswell. Now that makes it unlikely that the next ISOLATOR will win on bet 2. Plus there hasn't been a win on bet 3 or 4 for the last *4* ISOLATORS. So this is how I would stake ISOLATOR 32.


BET/1 0.5PTS, BET/2 0.0PTS, BET/3 2.5PTS, BET/4 3.5PTS. (as you can see bet 2 is left out )

I-32 WON B/4= 4-PTS PROFIT

By reacting to what has happened before I have saved 2pts on the first 2 bets and made 2 pts extra on the win. ISOLATOR 33 went back to normal.

I-33 WON B/1= 2-PTS PROFIT

I-34 WON B/2= 2-PTS PROFIT

I-35 WON B/1= 2-PTS PROFIT

Again, we have now enjoyed 3 consecutive wins in the first 2 bets. It is time to start favouring bet 3 & 4 again. So I leave out bet 1 as it won 2 of the last 3. And begin from bet 2. Staking BET/2 1PT, BET/3 2.5PTS. Bet 3 wins.

I-36 WON B/3= 4-PTS PROFIT

I-37 goes back to normal.

I-37 LOST= -7.5PTS

Right a losing ISOLATOR. Now after a loss the natural reaction is to double stakes on the next one. In the understanding that back to back losers don't happen very often. So I double up on ISOLATOR 38.

I-38 WON B/1= 4-PTS PROFIT

Back to regular stakes for ISOLATOR 39.

I-39 WON B/1= 2-PTS PROFIT

Again two consecutive wins in bet 1 means I will not cover bet 1 in ISOLATOR 40. And will place only 1 pt on bet 2, giving priority to bets 3 & 4. So I would stake as follows. BET/2 1PT, BET/3 2PTS BET/4 3.5PTS.

I-40 WON B/4= 4-PTS PROFIT

TOTAL PTS WON= 26
TOTAL PTS LOST = 7.5 (Clear profit=18.5 PTS)

So by reacting to the results as they happen and making adjustments without risking MORE pts except after a loss. We end up with twice as many points profit for our efforts at the end of the month. Bearing in mind that a point is worth £3.00 in relation to our BANKROLL of £200. We have increased it by £55.50p
to get a total of £255.50p or just over 27% increase in a month. Which is a decent increase. Had we just mechanically bet the same 4 bet progression on every ISOLATOR, we would have only had an increase of £227.00. Which is still profit, but the faster we can build up funds the sooner we can increase the value of a point.

Remember a points value is relative. With a BANKROLL of £2000 a point would be worth £30. That is when things get serious. But you have to build up to that size over time. I will continue to add to this thread. With other ideas to get the most out of wins and control losses as much as possible. Any questions are welcome. Peace.

 

[Springbok]

A question

BET 1--£3.00
BET 2--£4.50
BET 3--£6.00
BET 4--£9.00 (Total risk=£22.50) AGAINST APRILS ISOLATOR RESULTS...


Hi Fullhouse
Checking out your betting management, how do you use your table. In Bet 1 you have 3 quid. Do you split it between 2 numbers betting 1.50 quid on each? And in Bet 2 you would have 2.25 quid on each number and so on?

 

[fullhouse]

BET 1--£3.00
BET 2--£4.50
BET 3--£6.00
BET 4--£9.00 (Total risk=£22.50) AGAINST APRILS ISOLATOR RESULTS...


Hi Fullhouse
Checking out your betting management, how do you use your table. In Bet 1 you have 3 quid. Do you split it between 2 numbers betting 1.50 quid on each? And in Bet 2 you would have 2.25 quid on each number and so on?

Hi Springbok.

Yes you got it. Because a single number gives you 5/1 or 6x your stake, including the crucial booster ball. I think of the 2 numbers as one bet. So in effect your return becomes 2/1 or 3x your stake.

I have given those amounts as a recommended start if you have a bankroll of at least £200. If your bankroll were £100 you would use half that amount on each bet. You should not be risking more than one 9th of your total bankroll on any one ISOLATOR/ELIMINATOR. That way you will never be wiped out. Risking half your BANKROLL on one 4 bet run would be gambling suicide. And is the reason so many gamblers get wiped out. So the more BANKROLL you have to start with the better. If you started with £1000 and you risked £50 on an ISOLATOR. You would be risking 5% of your sleeping giant. And that is the PERFECT amount to play with. If your strategy is any good you will never lose. Peace

 

[fullhouse]

Protect those profits!

The name of the game in any form of betting against the odds is to come out on top. Whether the profit is small or large. You have succeeded. That said, why win 4 0r 5 times in a row. Only to give it all back on a couple of bad losses.

That is where proficient money management makes the difference between ending the year with several hundred in profit or several thousand. I know which I prefer. In order to do this, you must maximize your wins and minumize your losses. Even if you have a good strategy like the Eliminator or Isolator. You cannot simply bet the same amount on every run and achieve this.

You have to gain skill and judgement as to when to restrain and when to throw down the loot. I will give you a current example in point. I suffered two losses in a row in the Eliminator. After a run of 6 wins in a row. Now after the first 3 consecutive wins. I automatically halved stakes. So for example. If I had been betting £20 on a 4 bet run. I was now betting £10. This was done in the knowlege that a loss was inevitable. And I wanted to protect my profits. Even when last year the Eliminator enjoyed its best winning streak ever of 14 in a row. I was cautious.

Remember as long as it was winning I was still making profit. Its how you respond to a loss, or more so 2 losses in a row that makes or breaks your profit margin. When it finally lost on the 4th Eliminator of January. This year. I doubled stakes on the very next Eliminator and recovered most of the previous loss. Recently the Eliminator lost twice in a row. And I trebled stakes on the following Eliminator and doubled on the one after that. This Eliminator I bet next to nothing on the first 2 bets. And have only really got going on the teatime draw today because the previous 2 Eliminators won in the first 2 bets. If it loses tomorrow. I haven't lost much. And the money I have saved goes onto the very next Eliminator in double stakes which is likely to win.

This lowering and highering of stakes is absolutely essential, if you really want to make money at this game. Its very much how poker players work. They would get nowhere if they always bet the same stake every hand. So the point is, even if the rules of the strategy are in place. The money management has to remain flexible and responsive to the results. I have enough experience and confidence now after 4 years. To know how things go up and down. That is why I don't get over excited or panic if things aren't going as well as they were last month or the month before. They will always rebalance to give me that 3 wins to every loss in the end.

The ISOLATOR is strong enough to take that strike rate up. And may deliver an annual turnover of 4--1. Which will be stunning. Now when you know the figures to expect. Your correct use of money management will make a serious difference at the end of the year. When I had no idea how to manage my bankroll. I made money but not even half of what I made the next year. Once I had it under control. And the strike rate was virtually identical between the 2 years. The difference was how I used the money and responded to winning streaks, patterns and inevitable losses. Peace...

 

[Scruff]

Fortune's Formula

Hi Folks,

I would like to recommend this informative book which I have just read which would be of great interest to anyone interested in money management.

Fortune's Formula
The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System That Beat the Casinos and Wall Street
William Poundstone
Publisher - Hill and Wang 2005
ISBN - 0809046377
£13.19 from Amazon.co.uk

The book is well written and a wonderful tale full of fascinating characters and interesting ideas. If you have never heard of the Kelly Criterion or Shannon's Demon then you will definitely learn a great deal from this book.

This is one of the best books you will read this year!

 

[fullhouse]

Hi Folks,

I would like to recommend this informative book which I have just read which would be of great interest to anyone interested in money management.

Fortune's Formula
The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System That Beat the Casinos and Wall Street
William Poundstone
Publisher - Hill and Wang 2005
ISBN - 0809046377
£13.19 from Amazon.co.uk

The book is well written and a wonderful tale full of fascinating characters and interesting ideas. If you have never heard of the Kelly Criterion or Shannon's Demon then you will definitely learn a great deal from this book.

This is one of the best books you will read this year!

Thanks for the tip Scruff. I have heard of kelly criterion. Don't really know what it is though. My alltime favourite book is Called "PLAYING TO WIN" By Brett Morton. Its also a great book. And I learnt how to manage my funds properly by reading it. And alot about patience and discipline. There is a great line in there that gors like this. "TURNING WINE TO VINEGAR IS A SIMPLE PROCESS INVOLVING A NUMBERED WHEEL AND A SMALL WHITE BALL". The book is about the game of roulette. Which I now know can be beaten if you take this authors advice. Peace...

 

[taaroa]

Hi,

Do you think you can apply the Kelly criterion to 49s and how. I have tried to number it and found a percentage of 48% of your total capital. Too much.

Thanks

taaroa