Lotto 649 Sets a New Record

[LottoGroups]

The March 3, 2007, draw was won - one winning ticket. This set a new record. The number of jackpot winning tickets has exceeded the expected number by 5.6. This is the largest difference since June 2, 2004 when the Lotto 649 lottery went to the new $2 ticket format.

The number of wins is 194. The expected number based upon sales is 188.4.

Lotto Groups - the best way to win.
<<< link deleted >>>

 

[smandula]

I don't understand what is being stated .

Would appreciate some insight.

 

[LottoGroups]

Since June 2, 2004, the amount of tickets sales was such that on average there should have been 188.4 winning jackpot tickets. Since then there were in fact 194 winning jackpot tickets. Through the past two years there has usually been a variance between expected wins and actual wins, but with the latest win, the variance was the largest ever at 5.6.

The reason I track the variance is to see how that relates to expected rolls. If the number of winning tickets is much less than expected then there are more rolls and bigger jackpots. If the number of winning tickets is much larger than expected, the jackpots are smaller. This sometimes leads to bonus jackpots because with small jackpots, sales start to trend lower and the lottery companies do not want that to happen. That is what lead to the higher $2 tickets for Lotto 649. The jackpots and sales were getting too low and not enough profit was being generated.

Lotto Groups - the best way to win.
<<< link deleted >>>

 

[GillesD]

Number of winners

Just out of curiosity, LottoGroups, how do you calculate the average of winning jackpot tickets on the 288 draws since June 2nd, 2004? The value you mention (188.4 winners for 288 draws) indicates that you expect, on average, 65.4% of the draw to have at least one winner.

And how do you calculate for a given draw with a certain number of tickets sold, the probability of having a winner in those of tickets?

 

[LottoGroups]

GillesD,

I use total sales to calculate the expected number of winners. I keep a running total of all ticket sales and divide by the jackpot odds ( 1 in 13,983,816).

In other words, on average, there should be one winner per 14 million tickets sold.

 

[LottoGroups]

Lotto 649 set another record for the smallest jackpot value at only $3,044,095. The previous smallest jackpot value was $3.17 million.

Two factors caused the record small jackpot. One, sales were very low at only 5.98 million tickets, close to the record low value of 5.94 million. Super 7's $15 million jackpot is probably a contributing factor. And two, 6 of the 7 draw numbers were birthday numbers resulting in large numbers of 2 plus bonus and 3 match prizes.

The Saturday jackpot is estimated at only $7 million. Usually the jackpot estimate is $8 million after one roll.

 

[mirage]

<snip>
Two factors caused the record small jackpot. One, sales were very low at only 5.98 million tickets, close to the record low value of 5.94 million. Super 7's $15 million jackpot is probably a contributing factor. And two, 6 of the 7 draw numbers were birthday numbers resulting in large numbers of 2 plus bonus and 3 match prizes...

Yes, I too noticed the small jackpots and wondered about that. But "birthday numbers" is a guess on your part? 5 of 6 in this group are not that uncommon. Noticed 4 of the numbers were "primes" -favourites for other types of players.
Super 7 is often at $15 mil. Low sales with high number of wins, maybe. I wonder why sales are down?
But thanks for the update/info. Interesting to see how this will go, if this is a one time (type of) thing or if it will become a more regular occurrence.

 

[LottoGroups]

I am certainly hoping the trend of small Lotto 649 jackpots ends soon. The last time the Lotto 649 jackpot was over $20 million was back in November of last year - November 8 to be exact. That is over 4 months ago. That is one of the longest stretches of small jackpots that I can remember.

Now granted I would not turn down winning one of the so-called "small" jackpots. But the reason I wait for the larger jackpots is that I only buy tickets when the jackpot is over $20 million and I only play Lotto 649 as a member of a group - never on my own.

 

[mirage]

<snip>
Now granted I would not turn down winning one of the so-called "small" jackpots. But the reason I wait for the larger jackpots is that I only buy tickets when the jackpot is over $20 million and I only play Lotto 649 as a member of a group - never on my own.

LottoGroups,
How large does the jackpot have to be before you normally play?
How do you pick your numbers? Do you pick them or do you use some other means or is it a group effort?

 

[smandula]

LottoGroups,
I like your concept of Sales to 13,000,000 risk ratio.

Is it possible to obtain Sales fiqures prior to the
draw as opposed to after the draw.
I use Sympatico for the calculation, is there a
better way.

With Thanks

 

[LottoGroups]

LottoGroups,
How large does the jackpot have to be before you normally play?
How do you pick your numbers? Do you pick them or do you use some other means or is it a group effort?

Mirage,

We play once the jackpot exceeds $20 million. This rule is for both Lotto 649 and Super 7.

For Lotto 649, I have picked a set 1,000 numbers. I used a computer program I wrote to generate the numbers. The strategy I used was to select unpopular numbers and unpopular combination of numbers in order to minimize the probability of sharing the jackpot. When you buy tickets just for yourself, it is not terribly important to worry about sharing the jackpot with another winner. But when buying for a group it is critical. I know the numbers are working for us because when we have won match 4 and match 5 prizes, we have won more than the average amount of money normally awarded for a match 4 or a match 5.

 

[LottoGroups]

LottoGroups,
I like your concept of Sales to 13,000,000 risk ratio.

Is it possible to obtain Sales fiqures prior to the
draw as opposed to after the draw.
I use Sympatico for the calculation, is there a
better way.

With Thanks

I do not know of any easy way to get sales figures before the draw. It is important to note though that the sales figures before the draw are not final because sales are still open right up to draw time.

Now if you could get sales figures just before the games closes, the sales figure would be very close to the final number. I know at OLG they have a computer program that displays up to the minute sales figures for every game. I know the marketing people use the program to determine buying trends. I am not sure if their call center people have access to the same program. If they do you may be able to sweet talk one of the people to give you the information over the phone.

By the way, why would you want that information before the draw? What do you mean when you say you use Symatico for the calculation? I thought Sympatico was Bell's Internet Service Provider branding.

 

[mirage]

I do not know of any easy way to get sales figures before the draw. It is important to note though that the sales figures before the draw are not final because sales are still open right up to draw time.

Now if you could get sales figures just before the games closes, the sales figure would be very close to the final number. I know at OLG they have a computer program that displays up to the minute sales figures for every game. I know the marketing people use the program to determine buying trends. I am not sure if their call center people have access to the same program. If they do you may be able to sweet talk one of the people to give you the information over the phone.

By the way, why would you want that information before the draw? What do you mean when you say you use Symatico for the calculation? I thought Sympatico was Bell's Internet Service Provider branding.

(--Probably he means he is using sympatico to get sales figures as posted on their lottery internet site. )

 

[smandula]

Sympatico displays final Sales amounts for National Lotteries
Only Super Seven and 649 are shown

 

[smandula]

I guess you are right!

The Prize amount is most important,
the Sales Amount will follow.

Interesting topic.

 

[tomtom]

Some lottery corps might claim sometimes that people like extremely big jackpots, which have low chances being shared among a number of people. So they might increase prices, increase odds, etc… which sometimes essentially might mean abandoning many customers or players who may like lower prices and better odds lotteries. The strange part is when some people who are supposed to prefer these more expensive and/or higher odds lotteries and big jackpot might try to play in groups, where at the end they are supposed to share all possible winnings, that might be anyhow very unexpected to experience because of high odds. And still, players who prefer lower prices and better odds may sometimes not have any such bouncy balls lottery to play…

 

[maize]