Is this right?

fenris

Member
I have finally finshed the software the I have been writting for a while. It is based on the .Net framework and written in VB.net. I designed the software so that it is plugin based. The software has 3 types of plugins, database, statistics and strategies. The database plugins simply allow the program to flexible address any pick3 database. The statistics plugins will perform analysis on the various databases. The strategy plugins are the heart of the program, they are the ones that will perform a prediction based on a given strategy.

Now to my question. The first strategy that I ran was simply a random one. It simply selects ten random number for a boxed draw and ten random numbers for a straight draw. This yields 20 numbers per drawing.

Here are the results for Ontario and BC:

Code:
Ontario Pick 3
Number of Draws: 2242
Number Boxed Tickets: 2242
Number of Boxed winners: 118
Number Straight Tickets: 2242
Number of Straight winners: 24
-----------------------------------
Assuming straight win pays $500 and a boxed win pays $120
Amount spent: $4484
Boxed win amount: $14160
Straight win amount: $12000
Total win amount: $26160


Code:
BC Pick 3
Number of Draws: 3852
Number Boxed Tickets: 3852
Number of Boxed winners: 215
Number Straight Tickets: 3852
Number of Straight winners: 45
-----------------------------------
Assuming straight win amount of $500 and boxed win of $120
Amount spent: $7704
Boxed win amount: $25800
Straight win amount: $22500
Total win amount: $48300

It looks like I would be really far ahead. Does this make sense or am I doing something wrong? I would have expected 1 Straight win per thousand drawings. Any ideas?
 

Beaker

Member
It simply selects ten random number for a boxed draw and ten random numbers for a straight draw. This yields 20 numbers per drawing.


20 tickets per draw is $44,840 spent. ($20x2242 draws)

$26,260 - $44,840 = loss of $18,580

Not very promising :dang:
 

fenris

Member
Beaker said:
20 tickets per draw is $44,840 spent. ($20x2242 draws)

$26,260 - $44,840 = loss of $18,580

Not very promising :dang:

Thanks Beaker thats what threw me off. Now things make sense! Now that I look at the code it wasn't a calculation error it was a logic error (the worst kind!):cry:.


nipsirc said:
let's beta test your software and see how good your claims really are

I wasn't making claims. I was looking for a second set of eyes to find a mistake that I couldn't see (thanks again Beaker). Second, the program is not even at the alpha stage yet. If anything this software would be freeware or open source as I do not have the time to support or sell it.


If I learned anything from reading these forums it's that I'll post picks before I make any claims. Besides my program, right now, is simply a framework to allow for automated testing of strategies, of which I have none yet.

Again, I thank you both for your replies.

<Edit>
I have corrected the error and this is what I get now:

Code:
Number of Draws: 2242
Number Boxed Tickets: 22420
Number of Boxed winners: 95
Number Straight Tickets: 22420
Number of Straight winners: 14
-----------------------------------
Assuming straight win amount of $500 and boxed win of $120
Amount spent: $44840
Boxed win amount: $11400
Straight win amount: $7000
Total win amount: $18400

Much, much more reasonable!
 

Sidebar

Top