Is It Real??

GillesD

Member
Facts and assumptions?

First, Moses, I have to give you this: your method for demonstrating the weight of balls is awesome: "You suggested that I assume the balls are heavy, no I don't assume the balls are heavy, I know they are heavy and I usually use my logic and common sense to work some facts before I speak!" (your quote). But I have to agree with you: here on this earth, everything (at least as far as I know) has a weight if made out of something but everything is relative, how heavy should a ball be in order to have a tendency to fall downward in a rotating sphere with baffles?

Now let's analyze your possibility of an high number of winners and let's see what happen if we look at it logically (if not scientifically).

1 – Let's start with a statement form the BCLC site: "After each draw, ILC allocates for the payment of prizes 47% of all amounts wagered for that draw (the "Prize Fund") and a Pools Fund is determined by deducting from the Prize Fund an amount equal to the total amount payable as prizes on the 3/6 Winning Selections and 2/6+ Winning Selections"

2 – On sales of $100,000,000 (you statement), there will $53,000,000 taken by the lottery organization for their profit and administrative costs and leaving $47,000,000 ("the Prize Fund") to be given back to players (wow the mathematic is fairly simple so far).

3 – As you invoked the possibility, since 6 millions tickets held 3 winning numbers but with no mention of those with 2 winning numbers with the bonus number (which wins $5 here in Canada), I will go along assuming there were no 2+ winners (unlikely but why not go along with your far out assumptions). So an amount of $60,000,000 is taken out of the Prize Fund and paid out, creating a deficit of $13,000,000 for the lottery organization (again easy mathematics I hope you will not ask for a demonstration).

4 – So this will leave a Pools Fund of $0 to be divided by all other winners (4/6, 5/6, 5/6+ and 6/6 winning selections) in the ratios already given, AND NOT as you mention, from the Prize Fund ("… 9% of $47,000,000 …"). So they could be out of chance and come out with a big $0.00 for their effort but, I think (and here I assume) that they could claim $10 for having 3 winning selections (and this I know since when you have 4 you should also have 3 winning selections).

5 – So this can continue for other winners and the same conclusion would apply (a win of $0.00 or most likely $10), creating a greater deficit at this point for the lottery organization. When you say "… this situation can also happen for other prize category so why it is never happened nowhere in the world?" I will give you a real life example. Well, it snowed here yesterday and it is expected for today (not unlikely in winter in Quebec) but with your way of saying, why it is never happened for 30 consecutive days? Maybe it will happen (since it is possible) but I certainly do not wish that.

So a lottery is just a game of statistics and in the long run, the lottery organization will make (and have made) money even if, for one draw, your possible but unlikely scenario could happen.

And I could return your P.S. note but I would remove the word "somewhat"
 

Moses

Member
I am glad that you were not my math teacher as you are not very convincing and still refuse to provide direct answer to my questions but did you know in math both sides of the equations are equal! If you have definition on one side then you should be able to work all possibilities for the other side of the equation?
Let’s take that $100,000,000 the original example once again and assuming that the you prize fund breakdown is correct

WINNING SELECTION POOL PRIZE
- 6/6: 80.5% of the Pools Fund--------= $37,835,000
- 5/6+: 5.75% of the Pools Fund-------= $02,702,500
- 5/6: 4.75% of the Pools Fund- ------ = $02,232,500
- 4/6: 9% of the Pools Fund----------- = $04,230,000
---------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------------------= $45,000,000 for 4/5/5+/6 category, percentage of the prize fund which I don’t think your dividend can be right) for 3/2 prize category which means there are lesser than 200,000 winners in total matching 3 AND 2 numbers, so can you tell me how you would know there are below 200,000 2/3 winners?
Why didn’t you write 4.26% for 2/3 prize category?
In UK the lowest prize is the biggest payout unless I am making mistake in my calculations but show me where please!

- 3/6: Fixed $10
- 2/6+: Fixed $5

Moses
 

GillesD

Member
Explanations

I though I was as clear as possible but let's go step by step again.

For Canadian Lotto 6/49, rules say: "After each draw, ILC allocates for the payment of prizes 47% of all amounts wagered for that draw (the "Prize Fund") and a Pools Fund is determined by deducting from the Prize Fund an amount equal to the total amount payable as prizes on the 3/6 Winning Selections and 2/6+ Winning Selections".

A - So If I read this well, this means that the "Prize Fund" will be $47,000,000 (47% of $100,000,000). Is this OK with you?

B - Then a "Pools Fund" is calculated by deducting from the "Prize Fund" the total amount payable for 3/6 and 2+/6 winning selection. So again, in your example, if I calculate well, with $60,000,000 due to the 3/6 winners (6 millions of them) and 0 for 2+/6 winners (not a single one), this leaves no money ($47,000,000 - $60,000,000 = 0) to be divided to other winners. Am I rigth in this calculation?

C - And since the prizes for 3/6 and 2+/6 winners are fixed and take precedence over other winners, well though luck. So these winners are better off claiming a 3/6 winning selection. And the lottery organization will lose money on that draw; I agree but I will not weep if this ever happen. I would say this is like a bankrupcy were certain creditors (usually the banks and similar lenders) take their money before distributing the remaining amounts to the remaining creditors (usually the small investors).

D - I think this is the result of you mixing up the "Prize Fund" and the "Pools Fund".

Am I the only one that understand it this way????
 

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