Many studies have documented that people exaggerate the degree to which small samples are similar to the parent population and thus tend to believe in the independence of a binary sequence exhibiting negative autocorrelations. This belief is the so-called "gambler's fallacy". In this paper we introduce a method that enables us to test the bias of selection behavior for lotto games without using the exact distribution of the numbers chosen. There are two main findings: First, we show that the betting behavior of lotto players in the short term is strongly consistent with the gambler's fallacy. Second, consistent with the notion of Type Ⅱ gambler's fallacy, these same players tend to pick those numbers that have been drawn most frequently in the past. The latter may be due to the availability heuristic, since winning numbers having higher occurrence rates come to mind more easily.
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Gambler's Fallacy in the Lotto Market
- Thread starter Bonanza
- Start date
Hello, Bonanza,
I must say that...this comment on gamblers is very much a generic discourse. I am a ...gambler...but I do not follow the "geese" when it comes to picking digits. A true to life gambler does not follow a certain path in order to win. Rather, that personage will have an arsenal of information, experience and a bag of 'tricks' to enduce a winning scenerio. You are suggesting that a majority of players "go with the flow" or are basically doing what others are doing concerning lottery past history of winning number sets and chasing what would appear to be 'hot numbers'...this is true to a point. There's one catch in your post---you didn't mention the 'thinkers'. There are a few of us around that have made a living or are surviving as gamblers. The suggestion of a 'paper' in psychology is what I think that I have read and reread. Nothing is wrong with the posted statements but I believe that it's a bit short as far as statements about what and how a majority react to playing a game(s)!
Regards,
Teufellj...
I must say that...this comment on gamblers is very much a generic discourse. I am a ...gambler...but I do not follow the "geese" when it comes to picking digits. A true to life gambler does not follow a certain path in order to win. Rather, that personage will have an arsenal of information, experience and a bag of 'tricks' to enduce a winning scenerio. You are suggesting that a majority of players "go with the flow" or are basically doing what others are doing concerning lottery past history of winning number sets and chasing what would appear to be 'hot numbers'...this is true to a point. There's one catch in your post---you didn't mention the 'thinkers'. There are a few of us around that have made a living or are surviving as gamblers. The suggestion of a 'paper' in psychology is what I think that I have read and reread. Nothing is wrong with the posted statements but I believe that it's a bit short as far as statements about what and how a majority react to playing a game(s)!
Regards,
Teufellj...